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OO RUEHAST RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKO #1319/01 1622159
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 112159Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3660
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEAEPA/HQ EPA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMCSUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 4535
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 2117
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 6867
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 8338
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 5062
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3546

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001319 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR S/SECC, EEB, OES/EGC AND EAP/J 
PASS CEQ 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: SENV ENRG PREL KGHG ECON JA
SUBJECT:  Japan Announces Midterm Greenhouse Gas Target 
 
REF:  (A) TOKYO 1218; (B) TOKYO 604 
 
TOKYO 00001319  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Following months of internal GOJ discussion and 
input from various study groups, Prime Minister Aso announced June 
10 that Japan will aim to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 15 
percent from 2005 levels by 2020.  Looked at from a 1990 base year, 
the figures would equal an eight percent cut.  Senior Japanese 
officials note the PM's announced target, unlike those of EU member 
countries, for example, does not include potential CO2 reduction 
through carbon sinks nor offsets through the purchase of carbon 
credits from other countries.  Briefing Major Economies Forum (MEF) 
country ambassadors/senior embassy officials June 11, MOFA DG for 
Global Issues Shinsuke Sugiyama stressed that Japan hopes the PM's 
announcement will help spur progress at the upcoming G8 and MEF 
meetings as well as at the December UNFCCC COP 15.  Japanese press 
has generally criticized the figure as too low, but business leaders 
have been more positive, even if some call it a "tough target" to 
reach.  While the PM noted all sectors of Japanese society will need 
to contribute if the country is to realize this goal, he stated that 
the annual costs of meeting the 15 percent cut would be JPY 70,000 
(about USD 700) per Japanese household.  End Summary. 
 
Target of 15 Percent Cut in Domestic Emmisions by 2020 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Prime Minister Aso made his long-anticipated announcement 
of Japan's midterm GHG reduction targets June 10.  His goal of a 15 
percent cut from 2005 levels by 2020 is equivalent to an eight 
percent reduction from 1990 levels.  However, the Japanese target 
counts only direct domestic emissions cuts (what the GOJ refers to 
as "clear water") and leaves out reductions from carbon sinks, e.g., 
through forestation and other land-use policies, or from carbon 
credits purchased from other countries through UNFCCC programs like 
the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).  If these reductions are 
factored in, the PM asserted Japan's actual GHG reduction would be 
considerably larger and would exceed those of the U.S. or EU.  To 
illustrate, the PM said Japan had pledged 5.4 percent reductions 
through reforestation and purchases of carbon credits as part of its 
Kyoto Protocol obligations.  Ambassador Sugiyama made clear at a 
June 11 briefing to MEF country ambassadors/senior embassy officials 
that this 5.4 percent figure was meant to be representative only and 
the final contribution of land use and carbon credits to Japan's 
reductions would be negotiated in the UNFCCC in the coming months. 
Another related point Sugiyama and other senior MOFA officials 
stress is that developing, as well as developed countries, will need 
to agree to binding GHG reduction targets in the new post 2012 
climate change agreement. 
 
¶3.  (U) The midterm target falls in the middle of the six options 
proposed by the PM's Council on Global Warming, an expert group made 
up of representatives from industry, academia, and local government 
(ref B).  The GOJ's scenario for achieving a 15 percent reduction 
assumes the introduction of advanced energy-saving technology, but 
only in terms of buying/installing new equipment or to replace old 
stock (ref A). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The specific policy measures cited for reaching this 
target include a 20-fold increase from 2005 levels in solar energy 
generation, tax breaks for alternative energy and efficient 
vehicles, a subsidy system for replacing existing equipment with 
more energy efficient models, and existing energy-saving initiatives 
such as "Cool Biz" -- a national program to save on cooling costs by 
eschewing jackets and ties in offices during the summer.  At his 
June 11 briefing, Ambassador Sugiyama responded to a diplomat's 
question of whether the Diet plans a bill to make achieving the 
target obligatory, by saying it is a matter for parliamentarians to 
decide, but that members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are 
considering possible legislation. 
 
Annual Cost Estimated at $700 per Household 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) The Prime Minister noted all aspects of Japanese society -- 
including both businesses and consumers -- will have to change their 
behavior and make some sacrifices to realize the target.  The GOJ 
estimates programs to meet its midterm goals will cost 70,000 yen 
 
TOKYO 00001319  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
(USD 700) per household annually.  Most of this cost would be in the 
form of higher energy prices and purchases of more energy efficient 
appliances.  According to an opinion poll by the Cabinet Secretariat 
(ref A), however, only 2.2 percent of the public would accept an 
annual burden of 60,000 yen (USD 600) or more per household for 
measures against climate change. 
 
Reactions:  Environment Ministry 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) An Environment Ministry working-level official told emboff 
that even a 15 percent reduction from 2005 levels would be 
challenging, given Japan's difficulties in meeting its Kyoto target. 
 METI Minister Toshihiro Nikai did not issue an official statement 
after the PM announcement and a METI contact declined to comment to 
Post.  METI had been quoted previously in the Japanese press 
supporting an 11 percent cut. 
 
Reactions:  Industry 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Nippon Keidanren Chairman Fujio Mitarai, whose 
organization had urged the least stringent emissions reduction 
target and had been on record seeking a four percent rise in 
Japanese emissions over 1990 levels, told the press it is a "tough 
target."  Keizai Doyukai (Japan Association of Corporate Executives) 
Vice Chair of the Global Environmental Issues Committee Yukio 
Yoshimura told emboff his organization supports the 15 percent 
reduction target.  (Note:  Unlike Keidanren, Doyukai executives 
predominantly represent the financial industry and other non-heavy 
industry sectors.  End note.)  Yoshimura said the 15 percent target 
was a compromise between heavy industry and those who feel that such 
cuts are not enough. 
 
Reactions:  Press 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Almost all Japanese newspapers criticized the midterm 
target.  The June 11 Nikkei ran an editorial entitled "Is this a 
midterm target that can lead international negotiations?"  The 
editorial argues the PM tried to make the figure look higher simply 
by changing the base year from 1990 to 2005.  The Asahi also ran an 
editorial the same day pointing out that the PM's figure was less 
than the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s 
recommendations.  The Tokyo Shimbun and the Chunichi Shimbun asked 
if the figure would be "ambitious" enough.  Meanwhile, the 
conservative Yomiuri suggested the 15 percent target would be 
challenging for a country like Japan that has already taken strong 
steps to boost energy efficiency. 
 
Reactions:  NGO's 
----------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) A coalition of eight Japanese environmental NGO's 
published statements opposing the PM's target.  According to World 
Wildlife Federation (WWF) Japan member Naoyuki Yamagishi, the NGO 
was disappointed by the PM's announcement.  He argued the figure was 
too small to convince developing countries to take action in the 
post 2012 framework. 
 
ZUMWALT