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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 14 TOKYO 001270 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 06/05/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Editorial: America and Muslims -- We welcome a "new beginning" 
(Mainichi) 
 
(2) Review of U.S. military bases overseas being considered under 
new Obama administration defense strategy (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(3) USMC's top brass implies revisions to Futenma relocation plan 
(Nikkei) 
 
(4) SDF brass likely to get key posts in Defense Ministry's internal 
bureaus (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(5) LDP recommends enemy base strike capability with election in 
mind? Experts: LDP "using the people's indignation," "trying to get 
attention" (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(6) In meeting with Korean National Assembly chairman, DPJ Hatoyama 
says change in government will renew ties with South Korea (Tokyo 
Shimbun) 
 
(7) LDP in turmoil over restrictions on hereditary Diet seats 
(Asahi) 
 
(8) Senior LDP officials jittery about signature campaign to speed 
up holding of presidential election; Some mid-ranking, junior 
members positive (Mainichi) 
 
(9) Manufacturers still saddled with excessive jobs, facilities, 
according to Finance Ministry's statistics (Nikkei) 
 
(10) Prime minister to release mid-term goal to curb global warming 
on the 10th; Government searching for common ground with deadline 
close at hand (Nikkei) 
 
(11) Pro-Japan individuals in the United States have become extinct; 
Japan's influence is nearly zero (Sentaku) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Editorial: America and Muslims -- We welcome a "new beginning" 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
June 5, 2009 
 
Immediately after the terrorist attacks on the United States (in 
September 2001), then President George W. Bush used the word 
"crusade" to signal a military response. The Muslim world, which 
fiercely fought with the Crusades during the 11th to 13th centuries, 
uses "Red Crescent" in place of the Red Cross, abhorring the word 
"cross." It is undeniable that President Bush's inadvertent use of 
the word "crusade" has given an anti-Muslim impression to the 
attacks on Afghanistan and the war in Iraq. 
 
In addition to his slip of the tongue, President Bush drew fire not 
only from radical Muslims but also from moderate Muslims for his 
policies. As a result, relations between the United States and the 
Muslim world became icier than before. 
 
In view of such developments, President Barack Obama has delivered 
landmark speech calling for a "new beginning." The speech came about 
 
TOKYO 00001270  002 OF 014 
 
 
due to the cooperation of Cairo University and Al-Azhar, which is 
said to be the head temple of Islam, President Obama declared that 
the United States will never be at war with Muslims. He also 
presented a noteworthy historical view that Muslims make up a part 
of the United States. 
 
Mutual understanding with Muslims was necessary for the Bush 
administration's war on terror, as well. Needless to say, terrorism 
must be condemned. Nevertheless, if grassroots-level anti-American 
sentiments in the Middle East are left unaddressed, terrorism cannot 
be eradicated. Such a view is believed to be at the root of American 
experts' strong call for an effort to bring peace to the Palestinian 
autonomous region. But the Bush administration did not actively try 
to respond to that call. 
 
Referring to the pain of both Palestinians and Israelis, President 
Obama supported in his speech the coexistence of two states based on 
the establishment of a Palestinian state and the security of Israel. 
Although he stopped short of making any concrete proposals, the 
President also urged Palestinians, including Hamas, a radical Muslim 
group, to put an end to violence, while criticizing the expansion of 
Israeli settlements. Further, in contrast to the Bush 
administration, which was said to be clearly tilted toward Israel, 
President Obama expressed strong concern for the "humanitarian 
crisis" in Gaza, which was attacked by Israel. 
 
The United States is a strong ally of Israel. At the same time, it 
has been a self-claimed mediator of Middle East peace. We hope the 
Obama administration will move actively to find a way out of the 
current deadlock in the situation in the Palestinian region. 
 
President Obama announced his administration's readiness to conduct 
an unconditional dialogue with Iran, which has been pursuing a 
secret nuclear program. He also said that no specific political 
system should be imposed on other countries. This can be taken as a 
step toward reconciliation by bidding farewell to the Bush 
administration's Middle East democratization vision and the 
regime-change argument. 
 
But unless trust in America is restored, any Middle East policy 
would end up as pie in the sky. Following his Prague speech calling 
for a nuclear-free world, the President's ability to implement 
policies will be tested. 
 
(2) Review of U.S. military bases overseas being considered under 
new Obama administration defense strategy 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN ONLINE (Full) 
10:59, June 5, 2009 
 
Kyodo, Washington 
 
Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 
gave a speech at a think tank in Washington on June 4 where he 
pointed out the need to review the location of U.S. military bases 
overseas. He indicated that the new strategy will be included in the 
Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) to be issued in February 2010. 
 
This is the first time that a senior U.S. Armed Forces officer has 
mentioned specific contents of the next QDR, which will outline the 
Obama administration's security strategy. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001270  003.2 OF 014 
 
 
Cartwright said that "the present military bases overseas are 
located where they were when we fought Japan and Germany." He 
stressed that the war in Iraq and Afghanistan "will continue for at 
least another five to 10 years," calling for a change in thinking on 
operational concepts from World War II or during the Cold War. It is 
believed that he also had in mind the U.S. Forces Japan realignment, 
including the transfer of U.S. Marines in Okinawa to Guam, currently 
being undertaken by the Japanese and U.S. governments. 
 
Cartwright talked about the following proposals for a new strategy 
for overseas military bases: (1) construction of additional 
permanent bases; (2) rotation of troops stationed overseas; and (3) 
reinforcement of mobile units. Regarding a response to combat 
operations that have expanded to a global scale, he also said that, 
"The present strategic bombers are too slow, and the procedures are 
too cumbersome." 
 
(3) USMC's top brass implies revisions to Futenma relocation plan 
 
NIKKEI (Page 1) (Full) 
Eve., June 5, 2009 
 
Hiroshi Marutani, Washington 
 
U.S. Marine Corps Commandant Conway, who is the USMC's top 
commander, indicated in his testimony before the Senate Armed 
Services Committee during a hearing on June 4 that the U.S. 
government could even go over the planned realignment of U.S. forces 
in Japan. "We have a modified plan that is worth considering," 
Conway stated, referring to the Japanese and U.S. governments' 
concurrence on their plan to relocate the U.S. military's Futenma 
airfield. The realignment plan is to move 8,000 Marines from Okinawa 
to Guam. 
 
This is the first time that a U.S. military leader has touched on 
the possibility of modifying the realignment plan. Conway voiced his 
"support" for the agreement reached between the Japanese and U.S. 
governments. Even so, he clarified that it would be indispensable 
for Futenma airfield's alternative facility to have functions that 
are about the same as Futenma airfield. At the same time, he also 
pointed out that there were problems about the Futenma relocation, 
specifying that the Guam relocation cost would exceed its initial 
estimate. 
 
In addition, Conway suggested the need to take consistency with a 
review of other overseas bases in the Quadrennial Defense Review 
(QDR) to be released in February next year. He did not rule out the 
possibility of renegotiating with the Japanese government and 
revising the U.S. force realignment plan in the end. 
 
(4) SDF brass likely to get key posts in Defense Ministry's internal 
bureaus 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 3) (Abridged) 
June 4, 2009 
 
The Defense Ministry yesterday revealed a plan to restructure its 
organization in the wake of scandals involving its personnel. 
According to the revealed plan, the Defense Ministry will appoint 
staff officers from the Self-Defense Forces to pivotal posts in its 
internal bureaus. Specifically, the Defense Ministry is going to 
enhance the functions of its Defense Policy Bureau with a new lineup 
 
TOKYO 00001270  004.2 OF 014 
 
 
of three deputy directors general. The Defense Policy Bureau 
currently has only one deputy director general post, which has been 
filled by the Defense Ministry's bureaucrats. One of the two newly 
planned deputy director general posts is to cover international 
affairs and is to be filled by a person who will be seconded on loan 
from the Foreign Ministry, and the remaining deputy director general 
post is a slot for SDF staff officers. In addition, the Defense 
Ministry plans to set up a Strategy Planning Division in the Defense 
Policy Bureau to study and plan mid- and long-term defense 
strategies. 
 
The Defense Ministry will also install a new bureau that will 
integrate the defense buildup planning functions of its internal 
bureaus and the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces' staff 
offices. The newly planned bureau's director general will be 
appointed from among the Defense Ministry's bureaucrats, and its 
deputy directors general from among Defense Ministry bureaucrats and 
SDF staff officers. The directors of divisions in the Defense Policy 
Bureau and in the newly envisaged bureau for defense buildup 
planning will be appointed from among SDF staff officers as well. 
 
The Defense Ministry will enhance its policy planning functions in 
an aim to meet changes in the security environment, such as North 
Korea's nuclear and missile development, China's military power 
projection, and more frequent overseas missions for the SDF. The 
Defense Ministry's restructuring initiative to combine its 
bureaucracy and the SDF's brass is also expected to face objections 
from within itself. 
 
(5) LDP recommends enemy base strike capability with election in 
mind? Experts: LDP "using the people's indignation," "trying to get 
attention" 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 24) (Full) 
June 5, 2009 
 
Katsumi Sekiguchi 
 
The term "capability to attack enemy bases" has come out again from 
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The idea is to attack the 
enemy's missile bases and so forth in order to remove the threat 
before Japan is attacked. It is understandable to say that this is 
meant to counter North Korea's long-range ballistic missiles and 
other weapons. But is that all? 
 
Since April, North Korea has fired a long-range ballistic missile, 
as well as conducted its first nuclear test in three years and 
embarked actively on other military activities. 
 
In light of this, the LDP's subcommittee on defense policy adopted a 
recommendation on the need to possess the capability to attack enemy 
bases on June 3. This recommendation will be presented to the 
government shortly through the party's National Defense Division. 
 
A search in the database of the Diet's minutes shows that 
deliberations on the concept of "enemy base strike capability" date 
back to over half a century ago at the House of Representatives 
Committee on the Cabinet in 1954. There was little discussion at 
that time, but when the Taepodong-1 was fired in 1998 and the 
Taepodong-2 in 2006, there was lively debate on "whether this should 
be considered an option." 
 
 
TOKYO 00001270  005.2 OF 014 
 
 
However, this did not result in any concrete proposals, such as a 
policy recommendation. Yet, this time, it is being turned into a 
formal proposal just like that. 
 
Military journalist Tetsuo Maeda says cynically: "The LDP is mindful 
of the next House of Representatives election." 
 
He adds that: "North Korea's actions unmistakably came as a tailwind 
for those who want Japan to possess an enemy base strike capability. 
On top of that, the public shares their indignation against North 
Korea. (The LDP) has probably brought out this issue, taking 
advantage of this indignation, to serve their political maneuvering 
and the Lower House election campaign. 
 
"They probably do not really believe that making this a major point 
of contention in the Lower House election can restore the popularity 
of the Aso administration and the LDP, but they might be able to 
awaken latent feelings of affinity toward the LDP. North Korea, in 
effect, is helping the LDP." 
 
Politicians should not forget the weight of their words 
 
Political commentator Harumi Arima agrees with Maeda: "There is 
certainly an idea in the LDP that with the election approaching, 
talking about measures to counter the DPRK will win them support." 
He reveals an episode he heard from a bigwig LDP Diet member. 
 
A well-known hawkish Diet member was invited to lecture at a study 
meeting of lawmakers who were elected for the first time in the 2001 
House of Councillors election. He asked the participants what should 
Japan's future foreign and security policy be. This hawkish Diet 
member was surprised that a majority answered, "We will be studying 
this from now on, but it should be 'an eye for an eye'." 
 
Arima points out changes in the Diet members' disposition over 
time. 
 
"In LDP in the past, Lower House members elected for three terms 
became parliamentary vice ministers and those elected for five times 
became Diet committee chairmen or cabinet ministers. Diet members 
went through training in policy. But what you have today is TV 
politics. They do not work on refining their ideas and tend to just 
say something smart without much thought instantaneously." 
 
He voices his criticism of Nagata-cho: "For sure, there are 
political issues like postal privatization that come with pain on 
the part of the people, but no Japanese gets hurt no matter how much 
you talk about enemy base strike capability. Therefore, they have 
brought this up lightly, trying to catch attention before the 
election." 
 
He adds that: "Foreign and security policies are the result of the 
accumulation of long years of efforts. Politicians should not forget 
the weight of their words." 
 
(6) In meeting with Korean National Assembly chairman, DPJ Hatoyama 
says change in government will renew ties with South Korea 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN ONLINE 
June 5, 2009 
 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama met with 
 
TOKYO 00001270  006.2 OF 014 
 
 
Korean National Assembly Chairman Kim Hyong-O in the Diet Building 
in Seoul this morning after arriving in South Korea. Hatoyama 
expressed his eagerness to seize political power in the next House 
of Representatives election, saying: "A change of government will 
allow us to turn a new page of relations between Japan and South 
Korea." Kim replied: "Many people expect you to play a major role in 
the future." 
 
In reference to the issue of Japan's view of its wartime history, 
Hatoyama emphasized: "It is important for the two countries to push 
ahead with a future-oriented policy while looking back over our past 
in a cool-headed manner, instead of uselessly inflaming 
nationalism." Kim echoed Hatoyama's remark. 
 
The visit to South Korea is his first overseas trip in his new role. 
Hatoyama will meet President Lee Myung-bak in the afternoon. He aims 
to establish a relationship of trust with the President. Hatoyama is 
expected to exchange views with Lee on security in Northeast Asia 
following North Korea's nuclear test and missile launch. Hatoyama 
intends to seek Lee's cooperation in pressing North Korea to 
denuclearize itself. 
 
(7) LDP in turmoil over restrictions on hereditary Diet seats 
 
ASAHI (Page 4) (Almost full) 
June 5, 2009 
 
Takebe retracts previous remarks; Suga inpatient 
 
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) tried to restrict 
hereditary candidacy beginning with the next House of Representative 
election, but the party then easily overturned its own policy. 
Although the LDP attempted to counter the main opposition Democratic 
Party (LDP), it has now given the impression of being in turmoil. 
Some LDP members are casting chilly glances at Reform Implementation 
Headquarters Chairman Tsutomu Takebe and Election Strategy Council 
Deputy Chairman Yoshihide Suga, who led the argument on hereditary 
candidacy. 
 
At an expanded senior meeting yesterday of his Reform Implementation 
Headquarters, Takebe withdrew his previous remarks that hereditary 
Diet seats should be restricted, starting with the next general 
election. He said in the meeting: "I don't want to do anything that 
is aimed at the next election." 
 
At a meeting on May 13 with junior Diet members, Takebe explicitly 
said: "If we restrict hereditary candidacy, we should introduce such 
in the next election, not in the one after the next." At another 
meeting of the Reform Implementation Headquarters, Takebe 
distributed a draft report stipulating that the restrictions should 
be started with the next election. 
 
Takebe told reporters yesterday: "I have not at all said 'starting 
with the next election' or 'beginning with the election after the 
next.'" However, a headquarters member said, as if to have given up, 
said: "He is wavering. He should consider his official position, not 
his personal position." 
 
Meanwhile, Suga, who quickly presented the hereditary issue in the 
LDP, is impatient. One of the faction leaders criticized these 
moves, saying: "This means the reform efforts have backslid." Suga 
might lose his influence in the party if no improvement is seen in 
 
TOKYO 00001270  007.2 OF 014 
 
 
the issue. 
 
Suga wants the LDP to prohibit relatives within the third degree of 
kinship from running in the same electoral district, but he suggests 
excluding LDP lawmakers serving as prefectural chapter chief from 
the restriction targets. A group of junior lawmakers close to Suga 
agreed with Suga's plan in a meeting yesterday. Suga's prediction is 
that his proposal will be able to fend off public criticism if the 
introduction of the restrictions is put off to the election after 
the next, as well as to avoid resistance and confusion in the LDP by 
excluding the second son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi 
from the targets. 
 
Some in the LDP have said that Suga and Takebe should take 
responsibility for (turmoil) in the party." 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso has left the matter to the LDP, saying: "I 
want the LDP to carry out thorough discussion." The hands-off 
approach by Aso and the LDP leaders, including Secretary General 
Hiroyuki Sonoda, has spurred the uproar. 
 
Since there are many hereditary lawmakers in the LDP, "it is wrong 
to step up into the DPJ's ring," said (former cabinet minister). The 
LDP's effort to demonstrate the changing LDP likely will end in 
failure. 
 
Former Prime Minister Koizumi's son to be excluded 
 
When will the LDP introduce the restrictions on hereditary Diet 
seats? Since Takebe has dumped the issue on the party leadership, 
the proposal by the Suga-led group of lawmakers calling for 
restricting the hereditary candidacy will become material for 
further discussion. 
 
For fear of negative reaction from the public, the proposal states 
that the restrictions would be introduced in the future, which 
leaves open the possibility that the restrictions will be applied 
beginning with the next general election. The proposal states that 
the LDP would exceptionally endorse Shinjiro Koizumi, Kanagawa No. 
11 electoral district, who has become LDP chapter chief succeeding 
to his father, Junichiro, who has announced his resignation at the 
end of his term as a Lower House member, and Shoichi Usui, Chiba No. 
1 constituency. The proposal also includes that the LDP would not 
endorse relatives of Diet members, who will announce their 
retirements from now on, as LDP candidates to run in the next 
general election. 
 
However, the LDP informally endorsed candidates for most of the 300 
single-seat constituencies last fall when the possibility of the 
dissolution of the Lower House becoming strong. It has yet to 
endorse candidates for two constituencies: the Tochigi No. 3 and 
Miyazaki No. 1. Therefore, the impression that cannot be erased is 
the implementation of the restrictions has been forgone. 
 
Takebe said in a speech on June 1: "I think Shinjiro Koizumi will 
run in the next general election as an independent." In order to 
dodge the public reaction, he appears to be aiming at solving the 
issue in the form of Shinjiro declining the LDP's endorsement. 
 
Shinjiro's office replied to a question by the Asahi Shimbun: "We 
refrain from making from a comment." Shoichi Usui is, however, 
expected to be endorsed by the LDP. He appears to be breathing a 
 
TOKYO 00001270  008.2 OF 014 
 
 
sigh of relief. 
 
(8) Senior LDP officials jittery about signature campaign to speed 
up holding of presidential election; Some mid-ranking, junior 
members positive 
 
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full) 
June 5, 2009 
 
Daisuke Kondo 
 
House of Representatives lawmaker Taku Yamamoto recently started a 
signature campaign to demand that the party presidential election be 
held early. Nobutaka Machimura, who chairs his own faction in the 
Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) met with faction member Yamamoto in 
Tokyo on June 4 to ask him to refrain from continuing with this 
campaign. However, Yamamoto has told reporters confidently that 
"quite a number of signatures have been collected," indicating he 
intends to continue the campaign. The faction leaders appealed for 
party unity at general meetings of the factions on June 4, but there 
are a number of mid-ranking and junior members who support his move. 
A source of trouble for "Aso's downfall" is simmering in the 
background. 
 
Machimura summoned Yamamoto to the faction's office before the 
general meeting and reprimanded him sternly: "You said this is not 
meant to 'topple Aso' but you are disrupting party unity in effect. 
This is a critical period before the election, so you should be 
careful about your behavior." After the meeting, Yamamoto attended 
an executive meeting of the faction to argue that "this is not a 
campaign to topple the cabinet." When senior faction officials 
reproached him, he countered with: "If that's what you are saying, 
then expel me." Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was alarmed by 
the exchanges, wrapped up the argument with: "This is an action 
based on Mr Yamamoto's personal political beliefs. The faction has 
absolutely nothing to do with it." 
 
Yamamoto is 56 years old and was elected from the second district of 
Fukui. In the 2006 presidential election, he supported former Prime 
Minister Yasuo Fukuda, who was considering running at that time, and 
prided himself on being a "close aide of Fukuda." However, he formed 
a study group critical of the administration with former secretary 
general Hidenao Nakagawa and others in June 2008 during the Fukuda 
administration and was criticized for engaging in "divisive 
activities." 
 
Faction leaders, who want to give top priority to party unity in the 
run-up to the next Lower House election, are clearly annoyed by 
Yamamoto's activities. Bunmei Ibuki, chairman of the Ibuki faction, 
expressed his displeasure at a general meeting on June 4: "There is 
sure to be an election within three months. We need to unite as 
one." Former state minister for administrative reform Koki Chuma 
echoed his sentiments: "We can simply ignore him." 
 
Yamamoto has not set a deadline for his signature campaign. In case 
of changes in the political situation, such as the LDP's defeat in 
the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election (on July 12), there is a 
possibility that the number of supporters may grow. 
 
Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki, who distances 
himself from the administration, talked to reporters about this 
campaign on June 4. He said that, "It will depend on developments 
 
TOKYO 00001270  009.2 OF 014 
 
 
from now on," leaving the possibilities open. One junior lawmaker 
says: "I cannot affix my signature but I share Mr Yamamoto's 
thinking." 
 
(9) Manufacturers still saddled with excessive jobs, facilities, 
according to Finance Ministry's statistics 
 
NIKKEI (Page 5) (Full) 
June 5, 2009 
 
Manufacturers posted a combined pretax loss in the January-March 
period for the first time since the survey started in 1954, 
according to the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations 
released by the Finance Ministry yesterday. Signs of improvement in 
production and exports are emerging, but manufacturers are still 
saddled with excessive workers and facilities, as shown by the fact 
that labor's relative share of income marked a record high. To 
increase domestic demand, a key factor in putting the economy on a 
sustainable recovery track, it is imperative to lower the rising 
unemployment rate and boost stalled capital investment. 
 
The total amount of sales of all companies in the January-March 
period shrank 20.4 percent below the level for the same period a 
year ago to 311 trillion yen, and pretax profits decreased 70.1 
percent to 4,107.4 billion yen, both marking the largest ever rates 
of decline. Manufacturers posted a loss of 2,246.2 billion yen as 
exports of transportation machines and telecommunications equipment 
sharply dropped. 
 
Even so, there are indications that the recession is grinding to a 
halt. The industrial production index showed monthly improvements in 
March and April, and the figure for the April-June quarter may surge 
by about 10 percent over the previous quarter. Corporate earnings 
are also expected to improve. JP Morgan Securities Japan Co. 
employee Masaaki Sugano said: "The manufacturing industry might see 
its balance go into the black again in the October-December 
period." 
 
The volume of production remains at only about 70 percent of the 
level marked last fall. Many people familiar with the situation 
predict it will take a considerable amount of time before a full 
recovery will occur. There are signs of corporate earnings 
recovering, but listed firms that closed their books in March 
forecast lower sales and profits this fiscal year for the second 
year in a row. Under this situation, a stable earnings recovery is 
not expected until fiscal 2010 or later. 
 
The annual demand shortfall for the Japanese economy is estimated to 
be a record 45 trillion yen, highlighting excessive payrolls and 
facilities. 
 
Labor's relative share of income has reached an all-time high of 72 
percent (an estimate by NLI Research Institute). Labor expenses in 
the January-March period dipped 7.8 percent below the same period a 
year ago, but there is still stronger pressure to cut jobs. 
Machinery orders (private demand, excluding ships and electricity), 
which serve as a leading indicator for capital investment, are 
expected to drop for the fifth straight quarter in the April-June 
period. Appetite for capital investment remains weak. 
 
To bring the Japanese economy back onto a solid recovery track, it 
is essential to spur domestic demand, such as personal consumption 
 
TOKYO 00001270  010.2 OF 014 
 
 
and capital spending. But excessive employment and facilities stand 
in the way of such efforts. Signs of improvement in the economy are 
emerging, but structural coordination efforts, such as reducing jobs 
and shutting down plants, are likely to continue for the time being 
 
(10) Prime minister to release mid-term goal to curb global warming 
on the 10th; Government searching for common ground with deadline 
close at hand 
 
NIKKEI (Page 3) (Abridged slightly) 
June 5, 2009 
 
Japan's effort to set a mid-term goal to cut green house gasses, an 
issue that will take the centerstage of talks to discuss a framework 
to curb global warming to be put into force in 2013 and after 
(post-Kyoto Protocol talks), is reaching its final stage. The 
government plans to make adjustments, based on a plan to cut 
emissions by 14 PERCENT  in comparison with the 2005 level (7 
PERCENT  cut from the 1990 level). Prime Minister Taro Aso is 
expected to release Japan's plan on July 10. However, cabinet 
ministers are showing signs of disagreement with an eye on the next 
Lower House election. Various countries have started making 
adjustments. The deadline is drawing near. 
 
Setting a mid-term goal is not the focus of the post-Kyoto Protocol 
framework talks. It also determines Japan's economic activities for 
the next 10 years. The 15th session of the Conference of the Parties 
to the Climate Change Convention (COP15) to be held in December, 
following the July G-8 in Italy, is the deadline for settling the 
post-Kyoto Protocol framework talks. The 14 PERCENT  cut in 
comparison with the 2005 level, which will serve as the basis for 
consideration, is based on the figure indicated by former prime 
minister Yasuo Fukuda last year as a feasible estimate. Many 
government officials are of the opinion that this figure will serve 
as a benchmark, as a senior Cabinet Secretariat official put it. The 
reduction rate would increase, if emissions quota purchased from 
abroad and emissions absorbed by forests are included in the 
numerical target, as approved under the Kyoto Protocol. 
 
With upcoming election in mind 
 
Differences in views of related sources still remain. Masahiro 
Tabata, chief of the New Komeito Headquarters to Curb Global 
Warming, met Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura at the Kantei 
and asked for a further emissions cut, noting: "Environment Minister 
Tetsuo Saito is in favor of a 15 PERCENT -25 PERCENT  cut in 
comparison with the 1990 level (21 PERCENT -30 PERCENT  cut in 
comparison with the 2005 level). We support it." A substantial 
emissions cut is a pet argument of the New Komeito, which gives 
priority to environmental conservation. Some say that the New 
Komeito is conscious of the Democratic Party of Japan, which calls 
for a 25 PERCENT  cut in comparison with the 1990 level (30 PERCENT 
cut in comparison with the 2005 level) with the envisaged election 
in mind. 
 
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) at a meeting of the Global 
Warming Countermeasures Headquarters on the 3rd worked out proposals 
but was unable to come up with a specific figure. While those who 
are positive about cutting emissions, including former foreign 
minister Yoriko Kawaguchi, called for a 13 PERCENT -23 PERCENT  cut 
in comparison with the 2005 level, commercial and industrial policy 
clique members, who do not like the idea of setting a strict goal, 
 
TOKYO 00001270  011.2 OF 014 
 
 
cannot be ignored. The Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren), 
which supports the LDP, is in favor of a lenient goal of a 4 PERCENT 
 cut, compared with the 2005 level. As such, it is impossible to set 
a clear position, if the upcoming election is taken into mind. 
 
Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Toshihiro Nikai at related 
ministers' conference checked the environment minister's proposal 
for approving a substantial cut, saying, "The goal must be 
feasible." Justice Minister Kaoru Yosano, who is in charge of 
economic and fiscal policy as well as financial services, echoed his 
view, "An ambitious goal looks attractive, but it will impose burden 
on people." Participants in the cabinet meeting only agreed to make 
1990 the base year to be used for comparison of emissions cut. 
 
Post-Kyoto Protocol framework: Various countries showing positive 
stance with aim of enhancing their influence; Japan searching for 
ways to team up with US 
 
European countries and the U.S. are making a positive appeal on 
their mid-term goals at the Bonn UN climate Change Talks. Their aim 
is to enhance their influence in the post-Kyoto framework. 
 
The European Union (EU) came up with a goal to cut emissions by 20 
PERCENT  in comparison with the 1990 level to be achieved by 2020. 
It has even indicated readiness to raise the target to 30 PERCENT , 
if other countries come up with similar goals. The U.S. has revealed 
a goal to cut 14 PERCENT  in comparison with the 2005 level. It will 
come out even in comparison with the 1995 level. 
 
Those goals fall short of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change's (IPCC) call for a 25 PERCENT -40 PERCENT  reduction by 
industrialized countries as a whole. Dissatisfaction is lingering 
among developing countries. China is calling on industrialized 
countries to slash emissions by more than 40 PERCENT , compared with 
the 1990 level, by 2020. If Japan comes up with a small reduction 
rate, it could weaken its influence, drawing fire from other 
countries. 
 
A pattern of the group of Japan and the U.S., Europe and Developing 
countries being opposed to each other is emerging over participation 
by developing countries in the post-Kyoto framework. Japan has asked 
emerging countries to set a specific goal, including improving 
energy efficiency. The present Kyoto Protocol only mandates 
industrialized countries to set an emissions reduction goal. Japan 
has proposed a plan to include emerging countries as well. The U.S. 
has also released a plan to call on developing countries that emit a 
large amount of carbon dioxide, such as China and India, to set a 
reduction goal by 2020. This is close to Japan's proposal in that it 
calls for imposing obligation on emerging countries, demarcating 
them from developing countries. 
 
Both Japan and the U.S. have a domestic circumstance that they are 
unable to persuade domestic industries with a framework under which 
their rival nations - China and India - are not obligated to cut 
emissions. As such, they both have come up with a proposal that is 
harsh to emerging countries. On the other hand, the EU has just 
hinted at imposing a reduction effort goal on developing countries. 
It has apparently given priority to reaching an agreement on the 
post Kyoto-Protocol framework at an early date. 
 
 
Japan teamed up with the U.S. in the 1997 talks to formulate the 
 
TOKYO 00001270  012.2 OF 014 
 
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TOKYO 00001270  013.2 OF 014 
 
 
the House Foreign Affairs Committee that handled the resolution, 
came from California's 12th district. He said that the committee 
would adopt the resolution if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would 
support it. Pelosi came from California's 8th district. 
 
Chinatown sits in the 8th district where there is a large Korean 
community as well. The Asian-American population accounts for 29 
PERCENT  of the total population of the 8th district. The ratio in 
Lantos' constituency is about the same. In other words, both Lantos 
and Pelosi could not ignore the Asian-American voters in their 
respective districts. 
 
Numerical strength is a source of political power. The number of 
Japanese-Americans, who had been very powerful up until the 1980s, 
has been gradually shrinking. A survey conducted in 2007 by the 
Census Bureau showed that the number of Chinese-Americans was 3.54 
million, followed by Korean-Americans at 1.56 million, while that of 
Japanese-Americans was 1.22 million. 
 
Further, Japanese-Americans are mostly middle-class and are 
dispersed, while Chinese-Americans are concentrated in Chinatown and 
Korean-Americans in Koreantown. This allows them to wield 
significant influence in elections. 
 
"Korean-Americans have also been working hard to build political 
power since the 1990s," the aforementioned journalist said. Their 
efforts were triggered by the Los Angeles Riots of 1992 in which 
Koreans were attacked. They were terrified by the indifference of 
the white-dominated American society rather than by the fact that 
they had been attacked. Back then, Jerry Yu of the Korean American 
Coalition said in a newspaper interview: "The American people's 
response is cold because we, Korean-Americans, do not have political 
power." 
 
Since then, Korean-Americans have built up their political power as 
their numbers increased. Their efforts have been successful, and the 
House adopted a resolution condemning Japan for sexual slavery. The 
Korean Times said on Feb. 11, 2009: "Korean-American power is small 
but growing and increasingly influencing American politics. The 
Korean-American community is a new frontier for Korea." 
 
What deserves attention is a Japanese researcher's observation: 
"Korean-American and Chinese-American forces are actively playing 
the role of not only increasing their social position in the United 
States but also of sending out their home countries' political 
messages." I do not know of any story about the Japanese community 
in the United States having conducted activities for the sake of 
Japan. 
 
No interest in Japan 
 
Japan's power is declining not only in politics but also in the 
academic field as well. 
 
The number of Japan experts has drastically dropped at the Brookings 
Institution and other research institutes. Such opinion leaders as 
Harvard University Professor Ezra Vogel, who wrote Japan as Number 
One, Fred Bergsten and Adam Posen, who used to actively analyze the 
Japanese economy, have now shifted their interest to China. In the 
United States, think tanks play an extremely significant role. The 
number of researchers studying only Japan has clearly decreased. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001270  014.2 OF 014 
 
 
Meanwhile, the Korea Foundation, armed with abundant funding, has 
successfully increased South Korea-related courses steadily at 
universities and colleges. 
 
The same phenomenon is seen in younger generations as well. 
According to a professor teaching Soseki Natsume at a well-known 
Midwestern university, students these days do not study Japanese 
literature. The professor, who is an acquaintance of mine, lamented, 
"To increase the number of students, I was told by the university to 
teach animated films." Times have clearly changed since the 1980s 
when students not only in the literature and history departments but 
also those in law and business schools competed to study the 
Japanese language. 
 
The number of American students studying overseas provides a clear 
view. About 10,000 American students were studying in China in 2006, 
in contrast to about half of that number in Japan. In other words, 
they have no interest in Japan to begin with. 
 
This is evidence of the absence of Japan's national policy to 
promote exchanges of young people. In fact, it is little known that 
the number of Japanese students in the United States is also on the 
decline. The aforementioned journalist took this view: "It is a 
reflection of Japan's lack of strategic vision on how to commit 
itself to the United States. That has resulted in Japan's shrinking 
presence in the United States." 
 
The other day, a staffer at the U.S. Embassy in Japan said, "Senior 
officials recently dispatched from Washington have little command of 
Japanese." In the State Department, the group of people who are 
eager to study Japanese to become Japan experts is obviously 
shrinking. Today, an American version of "China School" is reining 
supreme in the section responsible for Asian affairs. 
 
Japan is pitifully losing its influence in the United States. That 
might be unstoppable. Influential pro-Japanese individuals are not 
likely to emerge in the future. 
 
ZUMWALT