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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TIRANA 000417 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PHUM AL
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE ELECTIONS? 
 
REF: TIRANA 164 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  With only three days until the 
elections, the question of what happens afterwards is being 
discussed more frequently, and in some cases, with increasing 
concern.  If no one party or coalition wins an outright 
majority of 
71 seats on June 28, they will have two months to try and 
cobble together a majority before the new parliament convenes 
on September 3.  As the elections appear quite close, much 
discussion has centered around how parties or coalitions 
will be able to form a majority in the new parliament 
should no one group win a majority.  Former PM Ilir Meta, 
leader of the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI), 
still views himself as the kingmaker, but it is also 
possible to have a "minority" government if no agreement 
can be reached.  President Topi will also play a key role, 
in that the President has the constitutional authority to 
officially invite a party or coalition to form a government. 
End summary. 
 
FIRST, THE CONSTITUTION 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) According to the Constitution, the party or 
coalition of parties that has the majority of seats in the 
assembly must propose a candidate for Prime Minister (PM) 
to the President, who would then  appoint this candidate as 
PM, pending parliamentary approval.  If the parliament 
approves this candidate, he is the new Prime Minister.  If 
the parliament for whatever reason does not approve this 
name, the President must then appoint another PM within ten 
days.  In the odd case that this candidate is also not 
approved 
by the parliament, it must elect another candidate 
for PM, but if it cannot do so then the President dissolves 
the Assembly and calls for early elections. 
 
SECOND, THE NEW ELECTORAL CODE 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) This election is the first held under a new 
electoral code, which was passed  in December 2008.  Under 
the new system, citizens will vote for parties, not 
candidates, 
and then votes will be allocated on a regional-proportional 
basis to the competing parties.  The parties will then 
allocate the votes to their candidates which are rank 
ordered on party lists.  In order to obtain a majority, and 
thereby be eligible to elect the Prime Minister, a party 
must win at least 71 parliamentary seats.  In the event no 
one party wins 71 seats, the coalition that is able to pull 
together 71 seats will have the opportunity to form a new 
government, and elect the next PM. 
 
THIRD, CONFUSION OVER WHO GETS TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Despite (or because of) the code and the 
Constitution, many areas of contention remain, some known 
and some still unknown.  One major area of disagreement is 
the definition of "party" and "coalition" in the 
Constitution.  Some interpret these to mean electoral 
"parties" or "coalitions" (meaning coalitions formed prior 
to the election for the specific purpose of running in the 
election together as a coalition) whereas others interpret 
these to mean parliamentary "parties" or "coalitions" 
(meaning groups of MPs or coalitions of parties formed after 
the election, for the purposes of getting enough MPs together 
reach 71 seats).  If one interprets it the first way, as DP 
strategist and constitutional lawyer Ilir Rusmajli does, the 
pre-electoral coalition that wins a plurality of seats will 
receive the first exclusive opportunity (first invitation 
from 
the President) to come to try and  form a government. Taking 
the 
latter interpretation, pre-election coalitions, parties, and 
even individual parliamentary deputies are free to change 
affiliations and form new coalitions, so any group that is 
able to cobble together 71 votes by September 3 will be able 
to form a new government.  According to this interpretation 
of the law, once the CEC certifies the election, each MP 
essentially becomes a free agent, able to join whichever 
party 
 
TIRANA 00000417  002 OF 003 
 
 
or coalition s/he so chooses (or makes the best offer). 
Although 
parties and even individual MPs are free to change their 
affiliations at any time - as the Human Rights Party did 
recently 
when it left the  DP ruling coalition in favor of the SP 
coalition - 
it is uncertain how changes in party and coalition 
affiliation 
after the election might affect who receives the first crack 
at 
forming a government.  Regardless of legal interpretations, 
it is 
extremely unlikely that any party or coalition will calmly 
stand 
on the sidelines and allow the pre-electoral coalition or 
party 
with the plurality of seats to have exclusive rights to horse 
trading and negotiating.  It is much more likely that all 
parties 
will engage in back-door discussions and deals simultaneously 
and 
when September 3 rolls around, some party or coalition will 
likely have been able to cobble together 71 seats.  Given the 
dueling interpretations of the law, a real problem could 
arise 
should one party receive a plurality of seats (but still 
short 
of a 71-seat majority) via the election, but then be 
outmaneuvered 
in terms of forming coalitions between the election and 
convening 
of Parliament.  In such a case, two separate parties or 
coalitions 
could make a claim to the right to the first invitation to 
form a 
government, thereby putting President Topi on the (very) hot 
seat. 
 
¶5. (SBU) However if a majority is not reached by September 
3, the formation of a "minority government" is possible 
under the law.  Under this scenario, if no one party or 
coalition is able to garner a majority of 71 seats, the 
party with the most seats would be asked to put forward a 
name for the next PM.  However, this is only possible if a 
majority of MPs show up to parliament on September 3.  If 
other MPs decided to boycott the session for some reason 
and a majority of MPs were not present, the parliament 
would be dissolved.  For his part, 
Rusmajli said that while it is possible under the law to 
have a minority government, it is highly unlikely.  Artur 
Metani, Legal Advisor to President Topi, tended to agree in 
a separate conversation. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Most observers, including Metani, have also 
indicated that they expect numerous electoral challenges to 
be fielded after Election Day.  These challenges, according 
to Metani and others, could take weeks to resolve and could 
even 
force electoral reruns in some regions if the challenges are 
found to be valid.  If the Constitutional Court has to be 
brought in to resolve any significant impasses, it could add 
weeks 
or even months to the electoral process, according to Metani. 
 
The Kingmaker(s) and I 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Legal uncertainty over who may get to form a 
government 
gives added power to former PM Ilir Meta and his LSI party. 
Meta 
has long fashioned himself as the kingmaker for this 
election. 
Although it is unlikely Meta would go into coalition with the 
DP, 
he could - for the right price - agree to allow some of his 
party's 
MPs join or not join an SP or DP coalition, thus potentially 
giving 
him the power to make or break a ruling coalition.  The other 
potential kingmaker will be President Topi.  The apparent 
legal 
ambiguity, as well as uncertainty on the part of Topi's chief 
 
TIRANA 00000417  003 OF 003 
 
 
legal 
advisor over how to interpret the law and constitution, mean 
that 
Topi could have a fair amount of discretion and leeway in 
determining which party or coalition gets the first 
invitation to 
form a new government. 
 
FOURTH, HOPE 
------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) What is clear is that not much is clear.  In the 
event 
no party wins an outright majority of 71 seats on June 28, we 
could well see a legal and electoral free-for-all as parties, 
coalitions and individual MPs maneuver for the magic 71. 
These 
are uncharted waters for Albania and this election will set a 
precedent for some constitutional issues.  Ominously, the 
President's legal advisor gave conflicting interpretations of 
the constitution and the law during a June 23 meeting, saying 
at 
one point that the Constitutional meaning of coalition is 
"electoral" coalitions and then a few minutes later said that 
coalitions means "parliamentary" coalitions.  Metani's 
overall 
strategy appeared at times to be one of hope; hope that one 
party wins an outright majority and makes all other possible 
scenarios moot.  But if the "hope" strategy does not work 
and no one party/coalition receives the magic number of 71 
seats, July and August, which are usually dull and hot, will 
instead be exciting and hot as each party/coalition will be 
scrambling to "encourage" other future MPs to join its 
coalition and thereby take a majority.  In the end, Metani 
stressed the importance of these elections for Albania and 
said they would be a real test of Albania's political 
maturity. 
He is right about that. 
WITHERS