VZCZCXRO4424
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK
RUEHYG
DE RUEHTI #0375/01 1701718
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 191718Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8214
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 3571
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 2507
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0825
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000375 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PREL PGOV PHUM AL
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION TOO CLOSE TO CALL 
 
 ¶1.  (SBU) With only nine days to go until the parliamentary 
elections, the race remains too close to call.  Although the 
Democratic Party (DP) clearly has the advantage in terms of 
money and perception of strength, polls continue to show a 
near dead heat.  A Zogby poll released on June 18 gives the 
DP a slim 2-point lead over the SP (with a three percent 
margin of error), but shows the larger DP and SP coalitions 
deadlocked at 42 percent each.  The SP appears to have 
dropped (at least for now) talk of an election boycott or 
delay, after it finally became clear to the SP last week that 
there was no support among the international community for 
such radical measures.  In an interim report released June 
18, ODIHR said the electoral process was going generally 
smoothly, but cited cases of state pressure on government 
employees, a lack of transparency on the part of the Interior 
Ministry regarding ID card numbers, and delays in forming 
local electoral commissions.  END SUMMARY 
 
Race Coming Down to the Wire 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The June 18 Zogby poll confirms much of what Post 
has been hearing from contacts on all sides: the race remains 
too close to call.  The poll shows the DP and SP coalitions 
deadlocked at 42 percent each.  When respondents were asked 
to pick specific parties, the DP has a slight edge, 40-38. 
The poll shows a clear trend of gaining support for the DP ) 
from 30 percent in January to 40 percent as of June 10, while 
SP support has remained steady since January between 36 and 
39 percent. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Contacts on all sides agree that the race is close. 
 One DP candidate told PolOff that although the DP has more 
money and appears more organized, SP voters are more 
reliable, and tend to turn out early to vote.  This DP 
candidate said that although the DP leadership is confident 
of victory, the DP is still haunted by memories of the 2007 
Tirana mayoral race, where the DP considered the race to be 
"in the bag," only to lose by a healthy margin to Edi Rama. 
SP Tortoise vs DP Hare? 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The DP is clearly running the more visible 
campaign, blanketing Tirana and other towns with DP posters 
and ads.  A senior SP strategist told PolOff that the SP is 
very short on money and is having trouble busing supporters 
to rallies or to apply for ID cards.  Nevertheless, DP, SP 
and neutral observers agree that the SP maintains a large 
number of "silent supporters" that turn out reliably and in 
large numbers on election day.  The SP senior strategist said 
he is confident the SP can pull out a slim victory, and 
stated his belief that the DP can only win this election via 
fraud.  (NOTE: It is clear that the SP has, at least for now, 
to have dropped all talk of an election delay or boycott 
after belatedly realizing that there was no support among the 
international community for such radical measures.  When 
asked by PolOff if a boycott was still in the works, the SP 
official replied "No.  We got your message."  END NOTE) 
Disunited We Stand? 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Zogby poll also lends support to another truism 
of Albanian politics ) a more unified right-wing tends to 
beat out a divided left.  The poll (along with all others 
released this year) clearly show that were the SP to join 
forces with the Movement for Social Integration (LSI) they 
would almost certainly win the election.  However, the 
leaders of the two parties, Edi Rama (SP) and Ilir Meta (LSI) 
remain bitter rivals, and much speculation in Tirana these 
days centers around the chances of a Meta-Rama deal prior to 
the elections, and what the terms of any such deal would be. 
IDs ) Another Race to the Finish 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) June 18 was the last day to apply for ID cards. 
Starting June 19, ID centers will only distribute cards ) 
applicants will now have to wait until after the election to 
apply.  As of COB June 18: 
- 1,402,361 had applied for cards 
- 1,048,593 have cards in hand 
- 353,768 cards remaining to be distributed 
On June 18, 24,518 cards were picked up by voters.  Eighty 
percent of respondents to the Zogby poll already have an ID 
card or passport.  Ten percent said they had no passport, had 
 
TIRANA 00000375  002 OF 002 
 
 
applied for an ID card but had not yet received it, while 8 
percent said they lacked a passport but would apply for an ID 
card.  All in all, 98 percent of respondents have ID 
necessary to vote, had applied for such ID, or said they 
would apply.  (NOTE: The Zogby poll was conducted May 23-June 
10, meaning respondents still had between 8-26 days left to 
apply for IDs.  END NOTE). 
¶7.  (SBU) ODIHR has seen no evidence of any widespread effort 
by any side to deny or delay the issuance of ID cards to 
voters.  Nevertheless, ODIHR criticized the Ministry of 
Interior for a lack of transparency in releasing data on the 
number of passport-less voters who have applied or not 
applied for ID cards.  According to ODIHR, the MoI will only 
fully release such information on June 22.  There remains a 
good deal of uncertainty over just how many passport-less 
voters may be left.  ODIHR said on June 19 that 505,000 
passport-less voters had applied for ID cards.  The Interior 
Ministry has not released its own figures on passport-less 
voters since May 26. 
¶8.  (SBU) COMMENT: All in all, ODIHR continues to be 
generally satisfied with the conduct of the elections so far, 
despite some isolated cases of violence (including the 
apparent car bombing death of a minor party offical on June 
18, shortly after Speaker of Parliament Jozefina Topalli had 
branded the party "mafiosi") and minor electoral infractions. 
 The composition of local electoral commissions remains a 
worry, as many of them are behind schedule.  The race itself 
promises to be a close one.  Although the counting of votes 
should be over on June 29, most observers expected a 
protracted round of electoral challenges from all sides ) 
and particularly the smaller parties, which have complained 
bitterly since last year about the new electoral code. 
 
 
WITHERS