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Viewing cable 09TIRANA342, How to Finance an "Election Year" Budget

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09TIRANA342 2009-06-05 14:42 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Tirana
VZCZCXRO1802
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHTI #0342 1561442
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051442Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8170
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 2497
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0820
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
UNCLAS TIRANA 000342 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV KDEM PREL AL
SUBJECT:  How to Finance an "Election Year" Budget 
 
1. A recent IMF report underlines that Albania and Cyprus are 
expected to be the only countries in Europe that will show positive 
economic growth for the current year.  Despite downgrading Albania's 
2009 GDP growth rate to 0.4 percent from 3.5 percent in early 
January, the IMF still considers the Albanian economy able to grow, 
mainly due to stable domestic demand.  This has been a major 
indicator which will allow the GOA to borrow approximately USD 300 
million via a syndicated loan from private banks while many other 
East European counties and Balkan neighbors have sought emergency 
financing from the IMF.  The loan is expected to help the GOA safely 
cruise through the year, even though a lot depends on the length and 
depth of the global crisis.  The GOA's main goal in getting the loan 
is twofold; complete an upgrade of the main highway to Kosovo, and 
to inject foreign denominated currency in the domestic market in 
order to balance the negative effects of global financial crisis 
resulting in lower remittances and volume of exports. 
2. The reaction to the GOA's decision to move forward with the loan 
- despite the very high interest rates it is paying (almost 11.5 
percent annually) - has been quite dissimilar.  The Minister of 
Finance praised the loan as another indication of the maturity and 
macroeconomic health of the Albanian economy, and contrasting 
Albania with other countries in the region which are struggling to 
find financing.  The opposition blamed the government for 
excessively increasing public debt through commercial loans instead 
of accepting IMF low-interest loans.  However the IMF rep in Tirana 
said that getting the loan should be considered a success, 
particularly in light of the very challenging financial situation. 
 
3. The decision to turn to the commercial banking sector rather than 
the IMF is obviously rooted in political rationale more than just 
economic ones.  The completion of the PRG/EFF agreement with the IMF 
in February enabled the GOA to terminate the rigid monitoring status 
under the IMF and allows the GOA, in the Prime Minister's own words, 
"to pursue an election year budget."  Sending the IMF packing just 
before the general elections would help the GOA implement certain 
budget-busting initiatives and policies which otherwise would have 
been impossible, such the increase of salaries and pensions being 
only the most striking examples.  The leader of the opposition Edi 
Rama has clearly stated that he will sign an agreement with the IMF 
during the first week of any Rama government.  However, it is very 
likely that in the event of a Democratic Party victory, Berisha will 
also seek a new arrangement with the IMF, which remains crucial in 
order to maintain the confidence of foreign investors.