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P 041441Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY TIRANA
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TIRANA 000339 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PHUM AL
SUBJECT: DP vs. SP - A Tale of Two Strategies 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: With the campaign period now officially open, the 
ruling Democratic Party (DP) and opposition Socialist Party have 
deployed widely differing campaign strategies in order to get to 71 
 
seats - the bare number necessary to secure a majority in the 140 
seat parliament.  The DP has assembled a large, 17-party coalition 
that it hopes will give it an advantage in rural areas.  The DP's 
campaign will focus heavily on touting GOA achievements over the 
past four years, and will count on the DP's solid party organization 
to help secure victory.  The SP, on the other hand, hopes to 
capitalize on Berisha fatigue, and fallout from the Gerdec tragedy 
and other corruption scandals, as well as a generally left-leaning 
electorate, to boost the SP's chances.  Post's overall assessment at 
this point is that although the ruling DP appears to have the 
momentum for now, neither party is likely to secure an outright 
majority of seats via the election, forcing whichever party wins a 
plurality of seats to form a governing coalition.  END SUMMARY. 
DP Pitches its Big Tent 
----------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) DP MP and party strategist Ilir Rusmajli told PolOff that 
the DP's 17-party coalition would give the DP a small advantage, in 
that it would attract more rural votes than the SP's much-smaller 
5-party coalition.  According to Rusmajli, even though none of the 
16 other parties within the DP coalition are likely to get enough 
votes to get their own seats in the next parliament, the votes cast 
for those parties will remain within the DP coalition as rural 
voters cast votes for regional favorite son candidates.  SP 
strategist Kastriot Islami agreed with this assessment, telling 
PolOff that SP Leader Edi Rama had made a mistake in putting 
together such a small coalition.  Rusmajli estimated that the DP's 
coalition partners would add 1-2 seats to the DP vote total - 
enough, he claimed, to make a big difference in a close election. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) But the SP has done its own coalition math as well.  The 
SP signed a last-minute deal to add the almost entirely ethnic-Greek 
Human Rights Party to the SP coalition.  SP strategists estimate 
that the HRP could add 3-4 seats to the SP coalition's total.  The 
HRP is strong in the south where Albania's Greek minority lives, but 
is practically non-existent in the north. 
 
DP "Cohesiveness" vs. a Fractured SP 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Rusmajli claimed that the SP suffers from internal 
divisions, a view echoed by other, non-DP observers.  Rusmajli said 
the SP's traditional base of old-style Socialists was disconnected 
from Edi Rama and the new "volunteers" Rama was bringing in to help 
the campaign.  Other observers agreed that the SP base was divided 
between Rama, former PM Fatos Nano and former PM Ilir Meta 
supporters, but were uncertain what effect this might have on SP 
turnout.  The DP, on the other hand, has had only one standard 
bearer from the very beginning - Prime Minister Sali Berisha. 
Although this undoubtedly gives the DP a more cohesive base, it also 
risks alienating voters on both sides suffering from Berisha 
fatigue. 
 
Do the Issues Matter? 
--------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) As expected, the DP will run on the record of the Berisha 
government, touting economic growth, NATO membership, and the 
nearly-completed Durres-Kukes road, to name a few.  Expect a long, 
and well publicized series of ribbon cuttings between now and the 
election.  Although the SP platform centers on making education more 
accessible for Albanians, the real focus of the SP campaign will be 
harsh criticism of the Berisha government over corruption and 
unemployment.  The Gerdec tragedy will also feature prominently in 
the SP campaign, with Rama pointing to Gerdec as a symbol of 
everything that is wrong with the Berisha government.  Finally, the 
SP is hoping that Berisha-fatigue will convince large numbers of 
voters to vote SP. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) But as nearly every political observer will point out, the 
Albanian electorate is fairly rigid in its loyalties, with 
relatively few "swing voters" in the American sense.  The consensus 
view is that issues matter little to most voters, and that national 
elections generally are a referendum on the incumbent, with much 
less thought given to the vision or promises of the challenger. 
This was clearly the case in 2005, when voters, turned off by the 
Socialist PM Fatos Nano's over-the-top corruption, threw out the SP. 
 
 
Getting to 71 
------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Rusmajli claimed that according to DP calculations, the DP 
 
TIRANA 00000339  002 OF 002 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: With the campaign period now officially open, the 
ruling Democratic Party (DP) and opposition Socialist Party have 
deployed widely differing campaign strategies in order to get to 71 
seats - the bare number necessary to secure a majority in the 140 
seat parliament.  The DP has assembled a large, 17-party coalition 
that it hopes will give it an advantage in rural areas.  The DP's 
campaign will focus heavily on touting GOA achievements over the 
past four years, and will count on the DP's solid party organization 
to help secure victory.  The SP, on the other hand, hopes to 
capitalize on Berisha fatigue, and fallout from the Gerdec tragedy 
and other corruption scandals, as well as a generally left-leaning 
electorate, to boost the SP's chances.  Post's overall assessment at 
this point is that although the ruling DP appears to have the 
momentum for now, neither party is likely to secure an outright 
majority of seats via the election, forcing whichever party wins a 
plurality of seats to form a governing coalition.  END SUMMARY. 
DP Pitches its Big Tent 
----------------------- 
 
coalition will secure 71 seats in the elections - thereby giving the 
DP the right to form the next government.  Others both within and 
outside of the DP are not so certain, with most believing that 
neither the SP nor DP coalition will reach the magic 71.  According 
to the law, whichever coalition wins a plurality of seats will 
receive the first invitation from the President to form a 
government.  Should they not be able to form a ruling coalition, the 
President will then invite the next-largest vote getter to try and 
form a 71-seat majority. 
 
First Mover Advantage 
--------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The jury is still out as to who - Edi Rama or Sali Berisha 
- would have an easier time forming a governing coalition should 
neither one win an outright majority.  But it may not matter. 
Whichever party gets a plurality of seats via the election will have 
a huge advantage in that once seats are allocated to each coalition, 
each new deputy becomes a free agent, with the ability to abandon 
their parties and join the other side should they so choose. 
Whichever side gets the first crack at forming a government will 
almost certainly offer whatever it takes - with ministries, cash or 
other incentives a certainty -to lure deputies to their side in 
order to form a 71-seat majority.  Both the DP and SP coalitions 
contain a large number of candidates that will eagerly sell 
themselves to the highest bidder, meaning an invitation by the 
President to either Rama or Berisha to put together a government 
could touch off a bidding war for the loyalties of a few key 
deputies. 
 
Advantage (for now): DP 
----------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) COMMENT: In the end, this election hinges more on 
organization than issues.  Whichever party proves better able to 
mobilize its base, put together a better campaign organization, and 
do a more effective job of horse-trading and coalition building is 
the one most likely to end up in control of the next government. 
For now, the DP has the momentum and the organizational edge, not to 
mention the substantial advantages of being the incumbent.  But with 
the official campaign only just beginning, much can and will change 
between now and June 28.  In other words, it's still early.