Tim W Hayes  06/19/2009 01:11:47 PM  From  DB/Inbox:  Tim W Hayes

Cable 
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UNCLAS    SENSITIVE     SOFIA 00305
CXsofia:
    ACTION: POLEC
    INFO:   DCM AMB POLM

DISSEMINATION: POLX
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: AMB: NMCELDOWNEY
DRAFTED: POLEC: JBIGUS; GSABE
CLEARED: DCM: AKARAGIANNIS

VZCZCSFI003
RR RUEHC RUEHZL
DE RUEHSF #0305/01 1700845
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 190845Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6088
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000305 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S JULY 5 GENERAL ELECTIONS: NUTS AND BOLTS 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 264, (B) SOFIA 278 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  Bulgarians go to the polls July 5 to elect 240 
members of the unicameral parliament for a four-year office term. 
This year the MPs are elected through a newly-introduced "mixed" 
electoral system, in which 31 MPs are elected from districts on an 
individual, first-past-the-post basis.  The remaining MP's are 
elected via a proportional system, based on party strength.  Parties 
must win a minimum four percent of the nationwide vote to enter 
parliament.  Local NGOs will deploy roughly 500 observers, mostly 
students, and OSCE/OHDIR roughly 20; a prime target is Bulgaria's 
growing and increasingly sophisticated vote buying.  The Central 
Electoral Commission is expected to announce preliminary results of 
the July 5 vote within several hours of polls closing.  Final 
results are due within seven days.  The President convenes the first 
session of the new parliament within a month after the vote.  He 
also taps, generally within a few weeks, the leader of the largest 
party as PM-designate to form a government; if that fails, the 
mandate slides to the leader of second largest party tally.  For the 
third try, the President may chose among any of the remaining 
parties.  The process can be protracted and last several months.  A 
"technocratic government" is possible if all parties agree; the 
constitution is silent on a minority government but in practice it 
would be hard to piece and hold together, let alone to govern.  The 
incumbent government continues on a lame-duck basis until its 
successor is sworn-in.  Handicappers predict up to eight parties may 
break the threshold; if so, government formation will be messy and 
ugly.  END SUMMARY 
 
THIS YEAR'S LINEUP 
------------------ 
¶2.  (SBU) Bulgaria's unicameral parliament (the National Assembly) 
adopts legislation, approves the PM and his ministers, exercises 
control over the government, and sanctions deployment of troops 
abroad.  Twenty parties and coalitions are running in this year's 
elections but only eight have a realistic chance to enter 
parliament.  PM Stanishev's BSP, front-runner GERB, the 
predominantly ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 
and extreme nationalist party Ataka will easily cross the threshold. 
 The real question will be the margin between the two largest 
parties (GERB and BSP) and the showing of the remaining four smaller 
groups: the center-right UDF-DSB "Blue Coalition," ex-PM Simeon 
Saxe-Coburg's NMS, self styled "corruption fighter" Yane Yanev's 
populist Order, Law, and Justice (OLJ), and energy oligarch Hristo 
Kovachki's "business party" Leader. (Ref. B) 
 
THE NEW "MIXED" ELECTORAL SYSTEM 
-------------------------------- 
¶3.  (U) The 240 members of parliament (MPs) will be elected under 
the new mixed electoral system that the Socialist-led coalition 
government introduced only two months ago amid high-profile 
political controversy.  Under this system, voters will effectively 
cast two ballots.  One ballot is for the 209 proportional system 
seats from fixed, rank-ordered lists of parties'candidates in each 
of the 31 electoral regions, and one for a majoritarian candidate in 
each region.  Each district is allocated a number of seats in 
parliament based on population.  On party lists, voters cannot 
change the candidates' rank order or add or delete names, and in 
effect cast their vote for the party rather than the individual. 
Parties and coalitions must win a minimum four percent of the 
nationwide vote to enter parliament.  Seats are then allocated to 
the parties in the electoral district in the same ratio as the 
distribution of votes in the district.  Votes of parties not passing 
the threshold are divided among the winners according to their 
percent of the vote.  For the 31 MPs elected under the majority 
system, parties nominate one majoritarian candidate for each 
district.  A plurality wins the seat. 
 
ELECTION RULES 
-------------- 
¶4.  (U) The election is organized and supervised by a Central 
Electoral Commission (CEC), whose 25 members are nominated by 
political parties represented in the national and European 
parliaments.  Elections are preceded by a three-week campaign, which 
kicked off June 13. Campaigning is forbidden on election day. 
Polling stations open at 6 a.m. and close at 7 p.m.  The voting age 
is 18.  According to official data, there are 6.9 million eligible 
voters in Bulgaria (population approximately 7.3 million), but CEC 
officials acknowledge these numbers need updating and the true 
figure is probably about one million fewer.  Polling stations are 
set up in Bulgarian diplomatic and consular missions abroad and in 
other locations at the discretion of the ambassador/consul.  In 
countries where there are no missions voting could be arranged if at 
least 100 citizens declare their desire to vote.  Bulgarian 
legislation does not allow absentee ballots -- citizens must cast 
their vote in person.  The Foreign Ministry proposed 252 polling 
stations in 62 countries.  The largest number is in Turkey (123), 5 
in the U.S.  Many Bulgarians who are ethnic Turks and who now live 
in Turkey are likely to return and vote (overwhelmingly for the MRF, 
prompting charges by other parties of machine politics and vote 
buying.) 
 
¶5.  (U) Exit polls are allowed but results cannot be announced 
before polling stations close.  Preliminary results are usually 
announced by CEC within several hours after the end of voting. 
Final results for parties and coalitions are published by CEC within 
four days.  The list of names of newly-elected MPs is announced in 
seven days. 
 
FORMING THE NEW GOVERNMENT 
-------------------------- 
¶6.  (U) The President must convene the newly elected MPs for the 
first session of parliament within a month after the election. 
After convening the parliament and political consultations, the 
President tasks the PM-designate of the largest parliamentary group 
to form a government.  The parliamentary group may be a political 
party, a pre-election coalition or a post-election union of 
political groups that ran separately in the elections.  There is no 
set deadline for the President to ask the first-place group to form 
a government, though it is normally within three weeks.  The 
incumbent cabinet operates on a lame-duck basis until its successor 
is sworn in. 
 
¶7.  (U) If parliament fails to approve the proposed government or 
the PM-designate fails to propose a cabinet within seven days of 
being asked, the mandate goes to the second largest parliamentary 
group.  If the PM-designate of the second largest group fails to 
form a government, the President, at his discretion, tasks any of 
the other parliamentary groups to nominate a PM.  If the third 
parliamentary group's PM-designate fails to form a government, the 
President appoints a caretaker PM and government, dissolves 
parliament and schedules new elections within two months of the 
ceasing of the powers of the preceding parliament.  The government 
formation process has taken roughly a month in most past 
post-communist elections.  But a drawn out procedure is also 
possible, as the Constitution sets no deadline for the third 
PM-designate to form a government, and does not specify when the 
President may or may not call new elections.  That decision is 
apparently left to the President's discretion and so far has not 
been contested.  The outgoing government, for example, was formed 
two months after the June 2005 elections, with heavy involvement of 
the President. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Another option is a "technocrat" government.  If the 
parties cannot form a government, they have the option to submit a 
list of technocrats and experts agreed by all sides to parliament 
for majority approval.  Bulgaria's one experience with a technocrat 
government in the 1990's was a disaster of corruption and 
mismanagement.  A minority government is also possible, also tried 
in the 1990s.  It lasted a fragile nine months and accomplished 
little. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) COMMENT:  As seen in the European Parliament elections, if 
GERB does not win big and the small parties cross the threshold, as 
many as eight parties could enter parliament, complicating coalition 
building.  The more fractious and contentious the process the 
greater role the President is likely to play, as in the difficult 
2005 coalition negotiations.  Despite bad experience with a 
technocrat government, there is more talk of going that route given 
the lack of a dominant party and the need for unity to navigate the 
financial crisis.  END COMMENT.