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DE RUEHSF #0302/01 1691243
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O 181243Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6083
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000302 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PINR ECON PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA;  RESPONSE ON FINANCIAL CRISIS' EFFECT ON 
EUROPEAN MIGRATION (C-RE9-00762) 
 
REF: STATE 43864 
 
(U)  This cable is sensitive but unclassified - please 
protect accordingly.  The following is Bulgaria's response to 
reftel information request. Answers are keyed to the 
questions in reftel. 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  The Global Financial Crisis is beginning 
to affect Bulgaria, but not yet to the extent of other EU 
nations.  Few migrants work in the country and therefore 
increased negativity or violence against immigrants is 
nonexistent.  Relatively few Bulgarian migrants have returned 
to date because conditions in host countries are often still 
more favorable than home.  Though the crisis affected 
Bulgaria to a lesser extent at first, labor conditions are 
worsening, and the pace of manual laborers returning from 
abroad is picking up.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  A1.  The Government of Bulgaria (GOB) does not 
currently have any programs to effectuate the return of 
migrants to their home countries.  Bulgaria employs a 
negligible number of migrant workers. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  A2.  The GOB has not taken any recent measures to 
discourage migrant workers from coming to the country.  EU 
regulations state that Bulgaria must allow free movement and 
employment of EU citizens.  Because unemployment even in 
positive economic conditions is a problem here, Bulgarian 
companies are hesitant to hire non-native labor.  In 
addition, people from outside the EU would find legal 
employment difficult because of local regulations fixing the 
ratio of foreign to Bulgarian workers in the labor market. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  A3/A4.  Other nations have not pressured the GOB 
to allow migrant workers to remain in Bulgaria.  A minuscule 
number of undocumented migrants make Bulgaria their final 
destination.  Bulgaria is a transitory gateway to other EU 
countries, especially for undocumented and trafficked 
persons, but rarely do they make this country their home. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  A5/A6.  Migrants in Bulgaria work in a limited 
range of disciplines, mainly in small enterprises, such as 
restaurants or small trading companies.  Bulgaria once had a 
small number of Vietnamese working in the construction 
industry, but most returned to their country well before the 
crisis.  Fluctuations between sectors are negligible because 
of the low number of migrants in Bulgaria.  According to 
Krassimir Kanev of the Bulgarian Helsinki Committee, 
anti-immigrant or anti-foreigner feelings in Bulgaria have 
not increased because of the global financial crisis. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  B1.  For the first quarter 2009, net remittances 
to Bulgaria from abroad were 12 percent lower than the same 
period in 2008.  As a share of GDP, remittances only fell 0.1 
percent.  The GOB expects the global financial crisis to 
cause a decrease in overall worker remittances for 2009, but 
economists predict the share of remittances as a percentage 
of GDP to remain near 1.5 percent.  To date, the economy 
appears relatively unaffected in macro terms by the drop in 
worker remittances.  But, for individual families, the drop 
is significant. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  B2.  Bulgarian migrant workers have not yet 
returned en masse to the country, though news reports suggest 
a sporadic flow of returnees.  A recent news report claimed 
that many migrant workers in Spain had lost their jobs in the 
construction industry and some who had returned had been able 
to find employment in Bulgaria's construction sector. 
Nevertheless, other reports from Italy show low-skilled 
Bulgarians lining up at employment agencies, hoping to find 
another job.  Unemployed Bulgarian migrants ostensibly have 
greater incentive to remain abroad and look for a new job in 
the host country rather than return to Bulgaria with the same 
potentially negative employment prospects and lower salary. 
The GOB has thus far directed economic stimulus efforts at 
existing workers and businesses, rather than job creation for 
returning migrants. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  B3/B4.  The GOB does not have any reports of 
social tensions caused by returning migrant workers.  The GOB 
is not taking steps to either encourage or discourage migrant 
workers from returning to Bulgaria.  When the economy was at 
a peak, the GOB spoke of plans to lure skilled labor back to 
the country, but results were sporadic and based more on 
personal decision rather than government efforts.  Wage 
 
SOFIA 00000302  002 OF 002 
 
 
disparities between Bulgaria, the EU and the United States 
are still too high to cause a return of skilled labor. 
Though the GOB is not actively discouraging unskilled 
migrants from returning, the government would be unhappy if a 
large number of workers did so.  Limited employment 
opportunities and a burdened social services infrastructure 
could cause potential problems. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  B5.  Spain, being one of the primary destinations 
for Bulgarian migrant workers, has one of the highest 
unemployment rates in the EU; however, the country actually 
lifted restrictions on Bulgarian (and Romanian) migrant 
workers as of January 1, 2009 - during the midst of the 
crisis.  Greece and Denmark also lifted restrictions on 
Bulgarian migrants on the same date.  Except for personal 
reasons, or a severe, long lasting recession, Bulgarian 
migrants have little incentive to return.  Established lives 
and higher wages anchor Bulgarian migrants in their host 
countries, providing greater constancy than conditions at 
home.  But, we cannot foreclose larger return flows if/as 
social, psychological, and economic conditions change in host 
countries. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  B6.  The effects of the global financial crisis 
do not yet strain the domestic safety net system. At least in 
unofficial numbers unemployment is not rising as quickly as 
predicted - official unemployment was 7 percent in April, 
compared with 6.3 percent at the end of 2008.  The GOB 
budgeted for the domestic safety net system with a mild to 
moderate recession possible.  And because of family and 
kinship patterns, many Bulgarians have other fallback 
mechanisms to cope. 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  Although Bulgaria has weathered the 
global financial crisis better than some Eastern European 
countries, fierce labor competition, uncertainty of 
employment and low salaries are keeping migrants from 
returning.  Unemployment is rising and underemployment is a 
major concern as well.  According to Ruslan Stefanov, 
Economic Program Coordinator of the Center for the Study of 
Democracy (CSD), people are reporting working 50 percent less 
than last year.  Gloomy forecasts predict unemployment rates 
to rise as high as 10 percent through 2009.  An unofficial 
CSD survey estimates Bulgaria is already suffering 12 percent 
unemployment.  Other macro indicators estimate exports down 
30 percent and tax revenues down 5 percent from first quarter 
¶2008.  The GOB spent 2.5 billion Euros from October 2008 to 
March 2009 propping up the economy, but will now be moving 
into debt spending.  The GOB has handled the financial crisis 
well so far, but an unpredictable future awaits any new 
government after the July 5 general elections.  Most analysts 
predict harder times, tougher conditions, and more 
belt-tightening.  END COMMENT. 
McEldowney