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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000301 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2028 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: FROM PRISON TO PARLIAMENT 
 
Classified By: Ambassador McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Corrupt, compromised and even recently 
incarcerated candidates appear poised to enter parliament in 
this summer's national elections.  In the latest negative 
development, a June 16 court decision freed the notorious 
Galevi brothers on bail, pending their trial on racketeering 
and money laundering charges.  This ruling enables them to 
campaign for local parliamentary seats, gaining temporary 
immunity from prosecution.  Meanwhile, fringe and extremist 
parties hover at the threshold for parliamentary 
representation.  Leader (founded by shady energy boss Hristo 
Kovachki) and Order, law and Justice (OLJ, founded by Yane 
Yanev, a political charlatan) both have suspiciously large 
and opaque funding streams and are positioned to draw votes 
from the mainstream parties.  The ultra-nationalist Ataka 
will grab close to ten percent.  Turnout by a "soft" 
electorate )- notably undecided and floating voters 
disgusted with politics and prone to protest parties )- may 
well determine the race.  While the outcome is still very 
much in the air, there is a strong stench of malevolent 
manipulation of the electoral system by entrenched and 
unscrupulous interests.  END SUMMARY. 
 
GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD? 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Bulgarians had thought they had seen it all when 
it comes to stacking the electoral decks.  They were wrong. 
Accused criminals are now brazenly running for elected office 
in a transparent attempt to escape justice, taking advantage 
of a constitutional provision that grants members of 
parliament immunity from prosecution.  Registered candidates 
for Parliament are also immune from prosecution during the 
3-week campaign period.  The infamous Galevi brothers, 
powerful mafia leaders in the town of Dupnitsa, just south of 
Sofia, have registered as candidates for Parliament.  Despite 
blistering media commentary and national revulsion, one of 
the two has a chance to win thanks to a well-oiled 
vote-buying machine, coercion and local connections. 
 
CHEAPER TO BECOME AN MP THAN BUY THEM 
 
¶3.  (C)   The Leader party, the creation of a widely 
considered corrupt businessman, is another stain on 
Bulgaria's image.  An energy magnate, currently being 
investigated for massive tax fraud, Kovachki was ranked last 
year as the second richest Bulgarian (after another reputed 
crime boss) and 98th richest person in Eastern Europe.  The 
source of Kovachki's wealth remains a mystery; he has amassed 
a mini-energy empire based on coal, suggesting ties to 
criminal elements in the extractive industries sector and 
insider deals with government officials and patrons.  He is a 
known associate of influential underworld figures involved in 
various smuggling and racketeering operations.  His party 
claims to represent business interests and supports EU 
integration and transparent government (sic). 
 
¶4.  (C)  It is widely believed that, tired of paying bribes 
to sitting MPs, Kovachki established the party as a more 
direct and cost-effective way to expand his political 
influence.  His party gained notoriety for its vote-buying 
success in local elections last year and has allegedly used 
coercion to force employees at Kovachki's many business 
operations to support the party.  Although Leader barely 
missed the threshold for a seat in the European Parliament, 
polls show that the party has a realistic shot of entering 
the next national parliament.  With support currently 
hovering around four percent, Leader could enter the 
240-member parliament with perhaps 10-15 seats.  If so, it 
will leverage its representation to bargain its way into a 
coalition government.  Though none of the traditional center 
right parties have much use for Leader, its vote could be the 
margin for coalition formation.  Leader is likely to siphon 
votes from front-leading GERB to the benefit of the Bulgarian 
Socialist Party (BSP) and ethnic Turkish MRF, suggesting that 
there is a tacit underground alliance of interests between 
them. 
 
A "CLOWN" FIGHTS CORRUPTION? 
 
¶5.  (C)  A new entry in the political landscape is the Order, 
Law and Justice party centered on Yane Yanev, dubbed "the 
clown of Bulgarian politics".  Yanev rose to prominence in 
recent months by making outrageous and defamatory claims 
against the current government.  OLJ party funding sources 
are entirely unclear, though sufficient for a very slick new 
office headquarters and top flight consultants.  His campaign 
motto is "Let's Stop Corruption," but his commitment is paper 
thin.  Filled with political opportunists, OLJ lacks 
credibility.   Most analysts believe Yanev is a creation of 
the ruling Bulgarian Socialist Party designed to take votes 
away from its more mainstream rival GERB.  Yanev claims OLJ 
has 38,000 members and a national organization, but after an 
 
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early surge in public interest, its popularity may have 
peaked.  OLJ currently polls around 4.69 percent, which would 
be just enough to enter parliament. 
 
PROTEST, RADICAL VOTE BOOST ATAKA CHANCES 
 
¶6.  (C)  The extreme nationalist party Ataka, which won two 
seats in the European Parliament, is certain to enter 
Parliament.  Ataka is strongly and vocally anti-NATO and 
anti-U.S. and relies on populist anti-government and 
anti-minority rhetoric.  Autocratic party leader Volen 
Siderov is a well-known journalist who gained notoriety for 
his outbursts in parliament.  Infighting, defections, and 
high-profile scandals that eroded Ataka's parliamentary group 
over the past four years have not undermined Ataka's 
electoral support.  Portraying itself as the only real 
alternative to the status quo, Ataka brands all major parties 
as "political mafia."  It attracts the protest vote of the 
extreme left and right and draws support from people living 
on the margins of society and former army and security 
officers.  It fills a specific electoral niche by offering 
easy solutions to painful social problems and speaking openly 
about sensitive ethnic issues considered taboo by the 
mainstream parties. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Over the past year, Ataka has modulated its tone in 
hopes of becoming respectable enough to join the next ruling 
coalition.  It has shaded its anti-Western/U.S., 
anti-Turkish, and anti-Roma rhetoric, focusing instead on the 
plight of the elderly and combating widespread corruption. 
At the same time, Ataka maintains its rebellious image by 
boycotting parliamentary sessions and sharpening its 
anti-government rhetoric.  It successfully exploits ethnic 
Bulgarians' distaste for the ethnic Turkish MRF, a junior 
coalition partner widely viewed as a vehicle for corruption. 
(Ataka and MRF symbiotically use each other in galvanizing 
their bases.)  Despite Ataka's attempts to moderate its 
message, mainstream parties consider it a coalition partner 
of last resort. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  Crooks and cranks are crowding the 
Bulgarian political scene.  While the majority of Bulgarian 
voters will back traditional parties, many are so disgusted 
by them that they look for alternatives and see few 
attractive choices.  The irony is that voter disillusionment 
can translate into more miscreants entering Parliament.  Low 
turnout increases the impact of vote buying and elevates the 
chance that small corrupt parties will do well.  That would 
damage Bulgaria's already tarnished image, complicate 
coalition formation, increase domestic tension, and snarl 
relations with us and the EU.  While Bulgaria's overall 
foreign policy would not appreciably change, a weak and 
indecisive coalition government would face painful economic 
decisions.  And it would feed into more voter alienation. 
That's a worst case outcome, but we should not discount it. 
 
McEldowney