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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 000264 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR EUR/NCE ERIC GAUDIOSI, TOM YEAGER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2019 
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN ELECTIONS: GARBAGE IN, GARBAGE OUT 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  Bulgaria is staggering toward the finish 
line of a tawdry year-long campaign that has ushered in new 
lows in mudslinging and slander.  Neither of the top two 
contenders, Sofia Mayor Borissov and Socialist PM Stanishev, 
have any chance of winning an absolute majority.  The real 
drama will be over their relative margins, as the smaller 
parties scramble to compete as coalition partners.  A grand 
coalition between Borissov's GERB party and the Socialists is 
now the most likely scenario, an outcome that promises 
further corruption, lack of vision, and a limited lifespan. 
Behind the scenes, President Parvanov is hedging his bets 
with contingency planning for a "technocratic" government 
that would position him and his business cronies as the 
dominant players.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Two Elections, One Campaign 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  The European Parliamentary campaign, officially 
kicked-off on May 16, has been dominated by domestic rather 
than European issues, as the parties jockey for position 
before the more important July 5 national race.  Corruption 
and the economy have been the main themes of what is 
essentially a single, year-long campaign.  There has been 
virtually no debate on the issues, and the campaign has 
degenerated to personal attacks reaching new lows even for 
Bulgaria. 
 
¶3.  (C)  The result is that most voters want nothing to do 
with the elections and turn-out is expected to reach historic 
lows.  This accrues to the direct benefit of protest parties 
such as the extreme-nationalist Ataka.  A low turn-out is 
also likely to cause the demise of ex-King Simeon's party, 
which may drop out of the national election if it fails to 
get a seat in the European parliament. 
 
The Main Contenders 
------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  THE BULGARIAN SOCIALIST PARTY (BSP): No one expects 
the BSP to take first place, but it can make a strong enough 
showing to bargain its way into the next government.  The BSP 
can claim some real achievements during the last term, 
including EU accession and fiscal stability.  But conflicting 
interests within the coalition and within the BSP itself 
paralyzed structural reform efforts, leaving a mixed 
government record that eroded support for the Socialists. 
Last year's high-level corruption scandals and subsequent EU 
sanctions brought BSP ratings to new lows.  Despite internal 
quarrels, the BSP is presenting a united front for the 
elections and, following the advice of its U.S. consultancy 
firm Greenberg Carville Shrum (GCS), has made Borissov's 
personality the key issue in their predominantly negative 
campaign. 
 
¶5.  (C)  CITIZENS FOR THE EUROPEAN DEVELOPMENT OF BULGARIA 
(GERB): With a roughly 10-percent lead over BSP, GERB will 
win the largest share of votes but not a majority and will 
have to find partners to form a government.  Though it calls 
itself center-right and uses pro-Western rhetoric, the party 
is really the one-man show of its founder and leader Boyko 
Borissov, former Interior Ministry Chief Secretary and 
bodyguard to Todor Zhivkov.  Borissov's mixed record at the 
Ministry, alleged past ties with underworld figures, and 
unimpressive Sofia city management have not undermined his 
popularity.  His strongest weapons are his straight talk and 
tough-guy personality.  Campaigning on the slogan "Let's Show 
that Bulgaria Can," GERB vows greater transparency in policy 
making and swift actions against corruption.  But lacking a 
plan and a seasoned team of policy experts to implement it, 
and saddled with Borissov's erratic and autocratic leadership 
style, GERB will find it hard to seize the reigns of 
leadership should it come to power.  GERB's preferred 
coalition partner would be the Blue Coalition, which could 
provide badly needed experienced personnel. 
 
Ataka and MRP: Each Other's Best Enemy 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  MOVEMENT FOR RIGHTS AND FREEDOM (MRF): Local 
analysts say Ataka and MRF need each other to frighten their 
constituents into voting.  The MRF enjoys solid support from 
Bulgaria's ethnic Turkish minority.  Its ability to 
consistently deliver the ethnic Turkish vote gives it 
influence disproportionate to its size, especially when 
turnout is low.  MRF's autocratic leader, Ahmed Dogan, is 
credited with keeping ethnic peace during the transition but 
now uses the party as a vehicle for money-making.  The 
party's alleged abuse of EU funds in MRF-controlled 
 
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ministries are major factors in the party's negative public 
image and the current government's low approval ratings.  MRF 
will return to parliament with roughly the same numbers, 
possibly more if turnout is low.  But this year it may have 
to compete for its past role as kingmaker with Ataka or OLJ. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  ATAKA: The surprise success of the 2005 
parliamentary elections, Ataka continues to attract 
extremists from the left and right, former army and security 
officers, and those embittered by the transition to a market 
economy.  The party's rhetoric is anti-Semitic, anti-NATO and 
EU, anti-U.S., anti-government and anti-minority (ethnic 
Turks and Roma).  Ataka is the only party to use an EU issue 
in its campaign: it is against allowing Turkey to join the 
EU.  High profile scandals centered on the autocratic leader 
Volen Siderov have not undermined electoral support.  Polling 
at about 10 percent, Ataka is certain to return to the 
European and national parliaments.  If not acceptable as a 
coalition partner, it may still play kingmaker offering 
informal support to a minority government. 
 
Lucky to Cross the Threshold 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  THE BLUE COALITION: UDF and DSB are remnants of 
the once powerful Union of Democratic Forces that led 
post-communist changes in Bulgaria.  Formed last March, the 
Blue alliance is a last-ditch attempt to save the genuine 
center-right, which has become marginalized by corruption 
scandals and ego clashes, many surrounding ex-PM Ivan Kostov.  The parties hope their reluctant and belated union will regain the 
center-right voters who have stopped going to the polls or 
defected to GERB.  If they cross the parliamentary threshold, 
they can hope to enter government in coalition with Mayor 
Borrisov's GERB.  But the center-right campaign is dogged by 
a high profile legal battle over court registration.  UDF 
leaders blame their troubles on court manipulation by the 
Socialists and hope the ongoing controversy will motivate 
center-right voters to go to the polls. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  NATIONAL MOVEMENT FOR STABILITY AND PROGRESS 
(NMS): The party of former King Simeon has been declining 
steadily since its defeat in the 2005 election.  To stay in 
government the party joined the BSP as a junior partner in 
the current ruling coalition, a move that further eroded its 
core support.  Its ratings are now below the margin of error. 
 
¶10.  (C)  ORDER, LAW AND JUSTICE (OLJ): A new player on the 
domestic political scene, OLJ is centered on Yane Yanev, 
dubbed the clown of Bulgarian politics.  Yanev rose to 
prominence in recent months by outrageous media claims. 
Yanev has found enough cash from unclear sources to bankroll 
top flight consultants for his campaign under the motto Let's 
Stop Corruption.  OLJ relies on crude populist rhetoric 
similar to that of GERB and Ataka.  Most analysts believe 
Yanev is a creation of BSP circles designed to take votes 
away from GERB and Ataka.  Yanev claims OLJ has 38,000 
member and a national organization.  But lacking Borisso's 
charisma and Siderov's drive, there are alread signs his 
popularity has peaked. 
 
¶11.  (C)  LADER: The business party of energy oligarch 
Hriso Kovachki had momentum several months ago when seeral 
tiny but respectable center-right parties jined its Forward 
coalition.  But after a falling ut with these partners, 
Leader is again alone an its polling numbers are back within 
the margin f error.  LEADER should not be counted out, given 
its vote-buying success in last year's local elecions and 
talk of a reconstituted coalition in time for the national 
elections. 
 
And If They Cannot Form a Government 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶12.  (C)  If the parties cannot form a government there are 
two options.  The President may appoint a caretaker 
government and schedule new elections within two months. 
Most parties believe results of a second election would not 
differ from the first and so would rather avoid this option. 
The second option, which has been gathering increasing 
attention, is a government of technocrats or well-connected 
business people, a list of experts acceptable to all sides 
and approved by a majority of the new parliament.  Though the 
parties -- via the parliament -- approve the list of 
ministers, the selection process is outside normal party 
procedure and not transparent, allowing more outside 
influence.  Bulgaria had one previous Program Government, 
formed in 1992, an ineffective and highly corrupt entity 
widely believed to do the bidding of a major organized crime 
group.  The idea of such a government is not popular with the 
 
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public or parties, but President Parvanov and business 
interests related to him are promoting the idea as a way to 
increase their own influence.  The parties may find it 
appealing to let a technocrat government take the blame for 
the effects of the world financial crisis, expected to hit 
with full force later this year. 
McEldowney