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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 SEOUL 000872 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; June 2, 2009 
 
TOP HEADLINES 
------------- 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
¶N. Korea Manufactures Three to Four ICBM-Class Missiles 
 
JoongAng Ilbo, All TVs 
GM Daewoo Likely to be in "New GM" 
 
Dong-a Ilbo 
On May 28, N. Korea Informed Overseas Embassies 
of Nomination of Leader Kim Jong-il's Third Son, Jong-un, 
as Kim's Successor 
 
Hankook Ilbo 
¶N. Korea Transfers ROK Worker, Who Has Been Detained at Kaesong 
Industrial Complex, to Pyongyang 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun 
Moon Jae-in, Former Chief of Staff to Late President Roh Moo-hyun: 
"President Roh Tried to Admit, In Place of His Wife, Receiving Money 
from Taekwang Industrial CEO" 
 
Segye Ilbo 
¶N. Korea's ICBM Disappears from View after Being Moved to 
Dongchang-ri Launch Pad on West Coast; Possibility Raised that This 
May be Part of N. Korea's "Harassing Tactics" 
Aimed at U.S. and ROK 
 
Seoul Shinmun 
¶N. Korea Strengthens Combat Readiness along West Coast 
 
 
DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS 
--------------------- 
 
According to Blue House Spokesman Lee Dong-kwan, President Lee 
Myung-bak and leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations 
(ASEAN) will adopt a press statement today condemning North Korea's 
nuclear test as a provocative act that threatens world peace and 
stability. The two-day ASEAN-Korea Commemorative Summit on Jeju 
Island comes to an end today. (All) 
 
President Lee also warned in yesterday's biweekly radio address that 
if (North Korea) refuses to take the path to dialogue and peace, and 
goes ahead with military threats and provocations, the ROK will by 
no means tolerate it. (All) 
 
Stuart Levey, Under Secretary of Treasury for Terrorism and 
Financial Intelligence, will be part of a U.S. delegation visiting 
Seoul today. Given that he played a key role in freezing North 
Korean assets in 2006, his inclusion in the delegation may signal 
Washington's intention to discuss financial sanctions against North 
Korea with relevant countries. (Chosun, JoongAng) 
 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 
------------------------- 
 
According to an ROKG source, North Korea appears likely to have 
manufactured three to four intercontinental ballistic missile 
(ICBM)-class long-range missiles or rockets by the end of last year. 
This means that North Korea may have one or two more long-range 
missiles, in addition to the missile it recently moved to 
Dongchang-ri, a newly constructed launch pad on the North's west 
coast. (Chosun) 
 
According to another ROKG source, North Korea recently ordered its 
forces on the west coast to increase their ammunition reserves to 
twice their peacetime levels. The North is also conducting 
amphibious attack exercises near the western sea border, using 
high-speed landing vessels. These moves might be intended to prepare 
 
SEOUL 00000872  002 OF 006 
 
 
for a possible armed clash (with the ROK.) (Chosun, JoongAng, 
Hankook, Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul, all TVs) 
 
According to a source privy to North Korean affairs, North Korean 
leader Kim Jong-il has tapped third son, Jong-un, as his successor. 
Experts saw the North's recent provocations as an attempt to show 
solidarity with the military, whose support is essential for the 
smooth transfer of power in Pyongyang. (Dong-a, Hankook) 
 
 
 
MEDIA ANALYSIS 
--------------- 
 
-North Korea 
------------ 
Citing an ROKG source, most ROK media carried front-and inside-page 
reports that North Korea recently ordered its forces on the west 
coast to increase their ammunition reserves to twice their peacetime 
levels.  The North is also conducting amphibious attack exercises 
near the western sea border, using high-speed landing vessels, 
according to media reports. 
 
Most media, noting that a landing exercise during the month of June 
was unprecedented in North Korea, interpreted these moves as 
intended to prepare for a possible armed clash (with the ROK.) 
 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo front-paged a report citing an ROKG source 
saying that North Korea appears likely to have manufactured three to 
four intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)-class long-range 
missiles or rockets by the end of last year.  This means that North 
Korea may have one or two more long-range missiles, in addition to 
the missile the North recently moved to Dongchang-ri, a newly 
constructed launch pad on the North's west coast, according to the 
Chosun report. 
 
All ROK media gave attention to Blue House Spokesman Lee Dong-kwan's 
June 1 press briefing, in which he said that President Lee Myung-bak 
and leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 
will adopt a press statement today condemning North Korea's nuclear 
test as a provocative act that threatens world peace and stability. 
The two-day ASEAN-Korea Commemorative Summit on Jeju Island comes to 
an end today, according to media reports. 
 
President Lee Myung-bak was widely quoted during yesterday's 
biweekly radio address: "If (North Korea) refuses to take the path 
to dialogue and peace, and goes ahead with military threats and 
provocations, the ROK will by no means tolerate it." 
 
Conservative Chosun Ilbo featured an article noting that Stuart 
Levey, Under Secretary of Treasury for Terrorism and Financial 
Intelligence, will be part of a U.S. interagency delegation visiting 
Seoul today.  Given that he played a key role in freezing North 
Korean assets in 2006, the report went on to say that his inclusion 
in the delegation may signal Washington's intention to discuss 
financial sanctions against North Korea with relevant countries, 
especially China. 
 
In a related development, moderate Hankook Ilbo editorialized: "If 
strong financial sanctions are imposed on North Korea, they will 
have an enormous impact on the North, as a freeze of North Korean 
accounts in Macau-based Banco Delta Asia (BDA) did in the past. 
Since China and Russia, which have been on North Korea's side on the 
global stage, including UN, are pressuring the North by canceling 
their planned personal exchanges with the North, Pyongyang's 
isolation will only deepen further.  The ROKG should play a leading 
role in global efforts to devise a framework for effectively curbing 
North Korea's additional provocations." 
 
Citing ROKG intelligence authorities and a source privy to North 
Korean affairs, conservative Dong-a Ilbo and moderate Hankook Ilbo 
carried front-page reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has 
tapped third son, Jong-un, as his successor and informed the North's 
overseas embassies of the nomination. 
 
SEOUL 00000872  003 OF 006 
 
 
 
In particular, Dong-a Ilbo's front-page claimed that the 
notification was made on May 28, shortly after the North's nuclear 
test on May 25.  Citing experts and sources, Dong-a linked the 
North's recent provocations to the issue of succession, saying that 
the provocations were intended to show solidarity with the military, 
whose support is essential for the smooth transfer of power in 
Pyongyang. 
 
-GM Bankruptcy 
-------------- 
The ROK media gave straight, inside-page play to U.S. auto giant 
General Motors (GM)'s filing for bankruptcy protection yesterday, 
focusing coverage on the future of GM Daewoo, of which GM owns a 72 
percent stake. 
 
Most media expected GM Daewoo to be included in a "new GM" to be 
built from GM's blue-chip assets, including Chevrolet, Buick and 
Cadillac.  Conservative Chosun Ilbo commented that even if GM Daewoo 
is absorbed into a "new GM," GM Daewoo's production will likely 
decline significantly for the time being because consumers will not 
buy GM cars and, as GM dealers try to reduce backlogs, orders for 
new GM Daewoo-produced cars will fall. 
 
 
OPINIONS/EDITORIALS 
------------------- 
 
REASONS WHY CHINA HESITATES TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA 
 
(Dong-a Ilbo, June 2, 2009, Page 30) 
 
By Beijing Correspondent Koo Ja-ryong 
 
The world's eye is set on China's (next) move regarding North 
Korea's second nuclear test and missile launches.  The international 
community believes that unless China, North Korea's only ally, takes 
an active part in (imposing) sanctions, North Korea will not be 
discouraged from pursuing nuclear ambitions.  While concerned about 
North Korea's radical behavior, China is reluctant (to impose) 
strong sanctions.  Experts say that (there are complicated reasons 
why China is reluctant to impose such sanctions.) 
 
An expert in Beijing, who is well informed about the leadership in 
North Korea , said, "Chairman Kim Jong-il is trying to take 
advantage of a new Cold-war structure in which the U.S. and China 
are jockeying for power in Northeast Asia," adding, "China is afraid 
that the North may 'join hands' with the U.S."  Last year, North 
Korea's trade with China accounted for 73 percent of North Korea's 
total external trade.  On the surface, China appears to have North 
Korea at its beck and call, but the reality is not that simple.  A 
collapse of the North Korean regime could send a flood of refugees 
into China and, if any conflicts take place on the Korean Peninsula, 
China could become the first victim.  These are matters of concern 
to Beijing.  This is why China is not willing to join in 
international sanctions, not to mention pursuing its own sanctions, 
although it considers an "unruly" North Korea to be impertinent. 
 
North Korea-China relations have already changed.  Chairman Kim is 
not pleased that China agreed to the UN Security Council's 
presidential statement condemning North Korea's satellite launch in 
April.  In particular, the North felt betrayed by China which said, 
in its official statement, that it was resolutely opposed to North 
Korea's second nuclear test.  The expert in Beijing noted, "If China 
joins the West in increasing pressure on the North and even, in the 
worst- case scenario, blocks the border with the North, North Korea 
may break with China and 'surrender' to the U.S." 
 
In other words, Pyongyang could try to pocket some benefits, such as 
a U.S. assurance of regime security and economic aid, by directly 
contacting Washington while keeping its distance from Beijing.  If 
the North disposes of its nuclear weapons and again takes steps 
toward denuclearization at some point in the future and demands 
negotiations with the U.S., the U.S. will have no reason to refuse 
 
SEOUL 00000872  004 OF 006 
 
 
(to engage in the negotiations with North Korea.)  Therefore, the 
U.S. influence over the Korean Peninsula may increase further.  This 
would be a nightmare for China. 
 
However, if Pyongyang goes further and fires an intercontinental 
ballistic missile, following the recent nuclear test, or stages a 
local provocation on the Korean Peninsula, it will not able to avoid 
international sanctions and negotiations with the U.S. will also be 
impossible.  A true superpower would have the ability to advance 
peace.  China should use the current situation as an opportunity to 
show (the world) the way to protect peace. 
 
 
KOREAN PENINSULA CRISIS WARRANTS CLOSER INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 
(Hankook Ilbo, June 2, 2009, Page 35) 
 
The crisis is rapidly deepening on the Korean Peninsula.  Only after 
a week following its second nuclear test, North Korea is preparing 
to launch a long-range missile presumed to be an Intercontinental 
Ballistic Missile (ICBM).  Last week, North Korea threatened a 
military strike in protest against the ROKG's full participation in 
the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI).  Also, North Korea 
warned that it can no longer guarantee the safety of (ROK and U.S.) 
vessels in the waters west of the peninsula.  We are in a situation 
where we may face military skirmishes such as the clashes (that 
occurred) off the west coast (in 2002). 
 
North Korea's provocations against the entire world will not likely 
be spared harsh punishment and pressures from the international 
community.  U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned that "the 
U.S. will not stand idly by as North Korea builds the capability to 
wreak destruction" on Asia or the U.S.  This warning, the sternest 
one since North Korea's second nuclear, is noteworthy because there 
are growing voices in U.S. political circles calling for the U.S. to 
respond militarily (to North Korea's provocations). 
 
The UN Security Council is discussing a resolution further 
sanctioning North Korea.  Purportedly, there is a high possibility 
that the resolution will include financial sanctions.  This seems to 
be why the Assistant Secretary of the Treasury has joined the USG 
delegation in a trip to the ROK, Japan, China and Russia, which is 
aimed at jointly coping with North Korea's nuclear test.  If strong 
financial sanctions are imposed on North Korea, they will have an 
enormous impact on the North, as a freeze of North Korean accounts 
in Macau-based Banco Delta Asia (BDA) did in the past.  Since China 
and Russia, which have been on North Korea's side on the global 
stage, including at the UN, are pressuring the North by canceling 
their planned personal exchanges with the North, Pyongyang's 
isolation will only deepen further. 
 
The ROKG should play a leading role in global efforts to devise a 
framework for effectively curbing North Korea's additional 
provocations.  However, the problem lies in the fact that pressure 
is not a cure-all.  In this sense, it was desirable that during his 
weekly radio address, President Lee Myung-bak urged the North to 
return to dialogue while sending a strong warning to the North. 
Seeking dialogue and negotiations with North Korea is as important 
as preparing for the North's threats in a stern and thorough manner. 
 
 
 
FEATURES 
-------- 
 
 
¶N. KOREAN NAVY 'STEPS UP WEST SEA ACTIVITIES' 
(Chosun Ilbo, June 2, 2009, Front page) 
 
By reporter Yu Yong-won 
 
North Korea appears likely to have manufactured three to four 
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)-class long-range missiles 
or rockets by the end of last year.  This means that North Korea may 
have one or two more long-range missiles, in addition to the missile 
 
SEOUL 00000872  005 OF 006 
 
 
the North recently moved to Dongchang-ri, a newly constructed launch 
pad on the North's west coast.   North Korea has apparently 
instructed naval troops in the Yellow Sea to stockpile more than 
twice the normal amount of ammunition and artillery shells and has 
staged an unprecedented surprise landing exercise. 
 
An ROKG official said that, given overall circumstances such as 
North Korea's procurement of missile parts from overseas, there is a 
high possibility that North Korea manufactured three to four 
long-range missiles and rockets at a military research center in 
Sanumdong near Pyongyang.  The official added that the ROK and the 
U.S. are tracking this (information).  The intelligence authorities 
believe that North Korea might attempt to fire these additional 
missiles even after launching the long-range missile it recently 
moved to Dongchang-ri. 
 
Another ROK military source said the North Korean military has 
recently instructed patrol boats and coast artillery batteries under 
the West Sea Fleet Command in Nampo to stockpile more than double 
the amount of ammunition and shells they keep in normal times. That 
could be preparation for a possible clash with the ROK. 
 
The surprise landing exercise on the west coast involved high-speed 
hover-craft landing craft.  The same source said that a landing 
exercise during the month of June was unprecedented in North Korea. 
"The exercise seems to be a kind of saber-rattling," he said.  He 
suggested that the North is attempting to show the ROK that it could 
carry out a provocation by a surprise landing. 
 
Joint shooting training has been conducted near Nampo where the base 
camp of subordinate units under the West Sea Fleet Command is 
located.  According to a source, last month, North Korean military 
leadership visited the subordinate units under the West Sea Fleet 
Command. 
 
But ROK military authorities do not necessarily treat the moves as 
decisive signs that an armed provocation is imminent, though they 
are watching developments closely. 
 
(We have compared the English version on the website with the Korean 
version and made some changes to make them identical.) 
 
 
U.S. DELEGATION VISITING ROK, CHINA, JAPAN AND RUSSIA 
(JoongAng Ilbo, June 2, 2009, Page 2) 
 
By Correspondent Kim Dong-ho 
 
The U.S. delegation kept itself busy on June 1 during its visit to 
Japan to address the North Korean nuclear and missile issue.  The 
U.S. delegation held working-level talks with high-ranking Japanese 
officials in the morning and had a series of meetings with Foreign 
Minister Hirofumi Nakasone and Prime Minister Taro Aso in the 
afternoon in order to discuss ways to respond to (North Korea's 
military provocations).  The group will visit the ROK, China and 
Russia in a tight schedule, starting June 2.  It will arrive in 
Seoul on June 2 and stay until June 3.  The group will meet with 
Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan, and Senior Presidential Secretary 
for Diplomacy and National Security Kim Sung-hwan. 
 
The Japanese Jiji press reported that the U.S. delegation led by 
Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg is on a tour to lay the 
groundwork for "a comprehensive North Korea strategy."  The visit by 
the U.S. officials is also intended to (elicit consensus) on the UN 
Security Council's resolution sanctioning North Korea and ward off 
signs of disturbance in East Asia triggered by North Korea's nuclear 
threat.  An ROK diplomatic source, who asked not to be named, 
analyzed that the U.S. delegation is on a trip to East Asia to come 
up with a comprehensive response regarding military defense, 
financial control and intelligence.  According to the Japanese 
Yomiuri shimbun, the U.S. is of the opinion that, due to the change 
in the power structure in North Korea resulting from leader Kim 
Jong-il's ill health, North Korea will continue its nuclear program. 
  It appears that the U.S. believes that it may be difficult to stop 
 
SEOUL 00000872  006 OF 006 
 
 
North Korea's provocations because its nuclear test was intended to 
sustain its regime rather than enhance its negotiating power. 
Accordingly, it is analyzed that the U.S. set out on an emergency 
tour to lay out overall countermeasures together with Six-Party 
Talks participants. 
 
In particular, the fact that (Stuart) Levey, the U.S. Treasury 
Department's Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial 
Intelligence, is part of the U.S. delegation is noteworthy. 
Undersecretary Levey played a key role in freezing about $25 million 
of North Korean assets at the Banco Delta Asia (BDA) Bank in Macao 
during the Bush Administration in 2005.  At that time, the U.S. 
Treasury Department found the BDA to be a primary money laundering 
concern.  Therefore, the U.S. delegation may consider freezing North 
Korean accounts through financial sanctions as countermeasures 
against North Korea.  An ROK diplomatic official said that the U.S. 
Treasury Department can freeze North Korean accounts relating to its 
nuclear and missile (programs).  The ROK diplomatic official also 
added that the ROK supports the strict control of money and 
resources used to develop the North's nuclear weapons and missiles. 
 
 
In addition, the U.S. delegation is expected to provide definitive 
guarantees of security to the ROK and Japan which are feeling uneasy 
due to North Korea's nuclear test, while at the same time calling 
for a united response.  The group's visit is also apparently 
intended to put an end to arguments for nuclear armament surfacing 
in both countries.  The U.S. is closely watching Japan's reaction. 
Apparently in an effort to quell Japan's anxiety, the U.S. deployed 
12 state-of-the-art fighter F-22's to Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. 
 
 
STEPHENS