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DE RUEHSO #0366/01 1761335
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P 251335Z JUN 09
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9293
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 3781
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0447
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3534
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0806
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 4119
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2925
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 2781
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 4383
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 9174

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SAO PAULO 000366 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR P, S/P, NEA AND WHA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2019 
TAGS: BR ECON EFIN PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: BRAZIL:AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH FORMER PRESIDENT 
FERNANDO HENRIQUE CARDOSO 
 
Classified By: Consul General Thomas J. White for reasons 1.4 (b) and ( 
d) 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (C) Ambassador Sobel met June 15 with former Brazilian 
President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC) to discuss the 
activities of FHC,s think tank and possible areas of 
cooperation.  Cardoso spoke at length about Sao Paulo 
Governor and presumptive 2010 PSDB Presidential candidate 
Jose Serra.  FHC also indicated that he himself may travel to 
Jerusalem in August on a mission with former President 
Carter, former UNSYGEN Kofi Annan and other "Elders", and 
expressed interest in a detailed briefing on U.S. Middle East 
policy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE FHC INSTITUTE AND U.S.-BRAZIL RELATIONS 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Ambassador called on former President Fernando 
Henrique Cardoso to discuss the work of the Instituto 
Fernando Henrique Cardoso (IFHC), a think tank created by 
Cardoso to discuss and analyze public policy issues.  The 
institute is allied with, but independent of, FHC,s 
Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB).  Also attending the 
meeting were the Consul General, former Foreign Minister 
Celso Lafer, IFHC VP Jovelino Mineiro, IFHC Director Sergio 
Fausto, and University of Sao Paulo political scientist Maria 
Herminia Tavares. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Given the continued growth of high-level USG 
visitors, as well as upcoming 2010 Brazilian Presidential 
elections, the Ambassador expressed the desire to increase 
our exchanges with the FHC Institute, to ensure that senior 
visitors get a range of political perspectives in their 
Brazil discussions.  FHC welcomed such opportunities and 
offered to organize roundtables and other events as 
appropriate.  The Ambassador outlined the significant 
progress made in the bilateral relationship since the 
exchange of Presidential visits in March 2007, including 
biofuels, the broader energy relationship, G20 cooperation, 
defense cooperation and new efforts on food security.  Recent 
important advances on Cuba policy at the OAS Summit were due 
in part to effective U.S.-Brazil consultation and 
cooperation.  Brazil,s increasing international prominence 
makes such collaboration all the more important. 
 
¶4. (C) Cardoso agreed that Brazil is enjoying a "new moment", 
where Brazil will play an ever more important role on key 
international issues.  However, he argued that Brazil still 
lacks a "strategic direction", and that President Lula,s 
government is missing an important opportunity.  There is new 
convergence with the United States on a range of important 
questions - energy, climate change, counter-narcotics and 
public security - and such convergence should be fully 
explored.  Cardoso added that he has an excellent rapport 
with WHA Assistant Secretary-designate Arturo Valenzuela. 
 
JOSE SERRA AS PRESIDENTIAL MATERIAL 
 
¶5. (C) Turning to the October 2010 Brazil Presidential 
election, FHC said that Sao Paulo Governor Jose Serra has at 
least a 50-50 chance of winning the election.  In order to 
run for the presidency, Serra will have to resign the 
governorship by April 2010.  At that point, according to 
Cardoso, Serra will need to get a number of important 
international trips under his belt, mentioning the U.S., 
Europe and China specifically, intimating that Serra,s 
resume is in need of buttressing in this area.  (NOTE: Serra 
spent time in Chile in exile during military rule, and 
studied and taught at Cornell and Princeton in the U.S.  END 
NOTE)  Cardoso said that he would be prepared to encourage 
Serra to meet with senior USG visitors in the interim, as 
Governor, and raised the possibility of hosting a major 
seminar on U.S.-Brazil relations next spring, once Serra 
leaves the Governor position. 
 
¶6. (C) In response to questions about his views on Serra as a 
potential President, Cardoso offered insights on regional 
foreign policy, climate change/renewable energy, and economic 
advisors.  At one point during the conversation, FHC said 
that Serra would be much less sympathetic toward Venezuelan 
 
SAO PAULO 00000366  002 OF 002 
 
 
President Chavez and his fellow Bolivarians than is the 
current PT-led government of President Lula.  FHC directed us 
to Celso Lafer,s recent testimony on Venezuela before the 
Brazilian Senate as indicative of the direction that Serra 
might take on issues such as Venezuelan accession to 
Mercosul.  (NOTE.  Lafer opposed Venezuela,s accession to 
Mercosul in his June 9 testimony, citing inconsistency with 
Mercosul,s democratic character.  END NOTE.)  Lafer and 
former Ambassadors Sergio Amaral(Cardoso,s former Foreign 
Minister) and Rubens Ricupero (former Finance Minister who 
launched the Real) are close advisors on the range of foreign 
policy and trade issues.  On issues related to climate 
change, FHC said that Serra listens to Israel Klabin 
(President of the Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable 
Development), former Minister Professor Jose Goldemberg, and 
SOS Mata Atlantica President Fabio Feldman. 
 
¶7. (C)  Among Serra,s chief economic advisors, Cardoso and 
others also listed: 
 
-- Armino Fraga, former Central Bank President 
-- Jose Roberto Mendoza, former Finance Ministry official 
-- Luiz Belluzzo, economist and consultant (and President of 
Serra,s favorite soccer club, Palmeiras) 
-- Antonio Delfim Neto, former Minister of Finance 
-- Jose Roberto Alfonso, former BNDES official.  Reportedly 
particularly influential on fiscal issues, Alfonso 
co-authored a piece with Jose Serra on municipal finances in 
the early 1990s. 
-- as well as Rubens Ricupero and Sergio Amaral (above). 
Amaral is reportedly influential on commercial matters 
involving Brazilian companies. 
 
MIDEAST TRAVEL 
 
¶8. (C) Cardoso indicated that he may travel to Jerusalem in 
August along with former President Jimmy Carter, former UN 
Secretary General Kofi Annan and former Norwegian PM Gro 
Brundtland - all part of "the Elders" group.  He expressed 
some reservation about the proposed trip, noting what he 
described as President Carter,s strong views and sometime 
unpredictability.  FHC indicated that, should the trip 
materialize, he would appreciate a detailed and authoritative 
briefing on U.S. Middle East policy.   Cardoso has read 
President Obama,s Cairo speech, which he praised. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶9. (C) Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso clearly is 
looking ahead to a Jose Serra presidency, despite his 50-50 
chance comment, and is considering how best to prepare a 
candidate he views as a protege.  FHC was markedly candid in 
discussing the circle of advisors who will help shape 
Governor Serra,s views.  His FHC Institute could provide a 
useful partner in increasing the Governor,s access to senior 
U.S. interlocutors.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
WHITE