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DE RUEHRA #0310 1541149
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031149Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5875
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS RIGA 000310 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PHUM LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN ELECTION CAMPAIGNS FUELED BY ETHNIC TENSION 
 
Ref RIGA 122 
 
¶1. Summary: Ethnic identity remains an important -- and perhaps 
decisive -- factor in the June 6 municipal and European Parliament 
elections in Latvia.  Several parties have based their campaigns on 
divisions between Latvians and Russians and their sometimes 
divergent political goals.  Ethnic politics are an evergreen theme 
in Latvian elections, but this election may hinge on the issue more 
than most, as parties lack substantive programs for economic 
recovery and fall back on the emotions of ethnicity.  End summary. 
 
¶2. As in previous elections, several parties have based their 
campaigns on the ethnic divisions of Latvians and Russians.  The 
most important races are in Riga, which is fairly evenly split 
between Russian speakers and Latvian speakers.  Russian-speakers may 
swing the vote. 
 
¶3. Some parties base their entire campaign on identity politics. 
The party For Fatherland and Freedom (TB/LNNK) has run ads directed 
at its ideological rival Harmony Centre --a party most popular 
amongst the Russian speaking population (see reftel).  Their latest 
ad featured a cartoon of Latvian coalition politicians fighting each 
other to get the milk of a cow marked "Latvia."  Once the Latvian 
politicians have killed one another for the milk, Russian 
politicians saunter in and walk away with the cow. 
 
¶4.  On the other side of the spectrum, PCTVL, a Russian speakers' 
party, ran ads urging Russians to vote for their candidates for 
European Parliament in order to put 'our people' in Brussels. 
PCTVL's explicit goals include strengthening the status of the 
Russian language in Latvia and the EU, cooperating with the Russian 
Orthodox Church, and promoting Russian economic ties with the EU. 
PCTVL candidate and current MEP Tatjana Zdanoka is essentially 
running as a single-issue candidate, promising to focus on helping 
Russian-speaking non-citizens gain voting rights in Latvia, although 
this remains a national, not EU, decision. 
 
¶5.  Even other parties that are not playing the ethnic card quite as 
overtly as TB/LNNK and PCTVL are focusing their campaigns on only 
one of the two ethnic/language groups.  The one candidate who is 
actively courting voters regardless of ethnicity is former transport 
minister Ainars Slesers of Latvia's First Party/Latvia's Way 
(LPP/LC), who has carried out a massive and colorful campaign in 
both Latvian and Russian.  In his campaign events, he uses both 
languages interchangeably.  Slesers is the most popular candidate 
for mayor, largely because anywhere from 35 - 45 percent of Russian 
voters say they support him.  No other candidate comes close to this 
broad appeal. This is largely due to Slesers' personality and his 
ability to project himself as an optimistic, pragmatic hands-on 
politician.  Polls show that Russian support for Slesers personally 
does not necessarily translate into Russian support for his party, 
making it difficult to predict how well he will do. 
 
¶6. Harmony Center's candidate for mayor, Nils Ushakovs, is also 
making some forays into Latvian-language media and his party has a 
few campaign ads in Latvian.  But his inter-ethnic efforts are much 
more limited and less likely to be successful that Slesers'.  This 
is mainly because the party is running Alfreds Rubiks for European 
Parliament and Rubiks' support of the 1991 putsch in Moscow and his 
ardent opposition to restoring Latvia's independence makes him 
anathema to the vast majority of ethnic Latvians. 
 
¶7.  Comment:  Given Latvia's economic situation and the lack of 
substantive policy proposals, it is not surprising that parties are 
falling back on ethnic issues to appeal to voters.  That does not, 
however, make it any less disappointing. 
 
ROGERS