VZCZCXRO4325
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0479 1692044
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 182044Z JUN 09 ZDK CTG CB 1369
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9583
RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS OTTAWA 000479 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: NO ELECTION - FOR NOW 
 
REF: (A) Ottawa 470 
(B) Ottawa 466 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary and comment: Canadians have dodged a summer 
election, but the reprieve appears likely to last only till autumn. 
Following three meetings in less than twenty-hours, Prime Minister 
Stephen Harper and Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff agreed that a 
bipartisan panel will study Employment Insurance reform through the 
summer.  The move clears the way for the Liberals to support the 
government's spending plans in confidence votes on June 19 and avoid 
a summer poll.  However, Harper's guarantee to allow an opposition 
vote on the government's economic performance in parliament -- in a 
confidence vote, if necessary -- in early fall suggests that the two 
leaders have deferred, but not necessarily avoided, a new federal 
election.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Following two "productive" private meetings with the Prime 
Minister on the afternoon and evening of June 16 (Ref A), and a 
third on the morning of June 17, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff 
and Prime Minister Stephen Harper agreed to "work together" and 
avoid a summer election.  The leaders will form a six-member panel 
to study extending employment insurance (EI) to the self-employed (a 
2008 Conservative election pledge) and examine EI eligibility 
regional inequities.  The panel will report back to the Prime 
Minister by September 28 with recommendations for legislative 
changes. 
 
¶3. (U) Harper's concession falls short of the Liberals' demand for a 
minimum 360 hour country-wide EI standard eligibility, and 
Ignatieff's insistence on June 15 that the government help the 
unemployed "this summer."  However, Ignatieff confirmed that it is 
enough for him to support the Conservatives' stimulus spending plan 
on June 19 and keep the government in power.  In turn, the 
Conservatives have agreed to shorten the summer recess, bringing 
Parliament back on September 14 (one week earlier than planned) and 
add an extra budgetary progress report on stimulus funding to be 
presented the week of September 28.  Harper also promised the 
Liberals an extra "opposition day" (when the opposition proposes the 
motion for debate) after the government tables its progress report, 
which they can use as a confidence vote.  A government failure on 
that vote would be an election in the first half of November. 
 
¶4. (U) Liberal MPs Michael Savage and Marlene Jennings, and an 
as-yet unnamed Liberal policy advisor, will sit on the EI study 
panel.  For the Conservatives, PM Harper named Minister for Human 
Resources and Skills Development (HRDC) Diane Finley (the Minister 
responsible for EI) and two HRDC officials. 
 
¶5. (U) In consecutive press conferences, Ignatieff and PM Harper 
struck positive, but contrasting, tones.  Flanked by his caucus, an 
upbeat Ignatieff declared that he had helped break a political 
logjam on EI.  He took credit for holding the government accountable 
and trying to make Parliament work.  Although he cautioned that 
there is no guarantee of consensus on EI changes, he said he could 
now "look the unemployed in the eye."  In response to reporters' 
queries on whether he had settled for too little, Ignatieff asked 
rhetorically "do I look steamrollered?"  He closed by claiming he 
had moved the EI debate forward and scored a "significant victory" 
in gaining recognition for inequities in the EI system. 
 
¶6. (U) Prime Minister Harper described himself as "very pleased" 
that the opposition supported his government's stimulus measures and 
that the parties had agreed to avoid an election that Canadians do 
not want.  Although he welcomed "realistic, affordable" ideas from 
the opposition, he underscored that the government's position had 
Qthe opposition, he underscored that the government's position had 
not changed.  He reiterated that the government remained opposed to 
adopting a 360 hour minimum eligibility for EI across the country. 
 
 
¶7. (U) Harper took a few partisan swipes at his opponents.  He 
lamented that it is "difficult to find common ground when you don't 
know what the ideas are on the other side", and said he looked 
forward to hearing specific proposals from the Liberals on EI that 
had been lacking hitherto.  He also warned that the opposition 
should not interpret a summer election averted simply as an election 
deferred to the fall.  Harper emphasized that his party remains the 
best prepared of all the parties to fight an election at any time 
and warned that his government's defeat by an opposition "Coalition" 
would produce "some pretty dangerous results" for the country, 
though he did specify what those might be. 
BREESE