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OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0470 1672012
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
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FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9572
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 000470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2019 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: LIBERALS BEGIN TO BLINK? 
 
REF: OTTAWA 466 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4  (b) and (d) 
 
 ¶1.  (C)  Summary.  Chances for a snap election over the 
summer dimmed on June 16 in the wake of unusual meetings 
between the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Official 
Opposition.  The public appears overwhelmingly against a 
summer election.  Some Liberals privately question the wisdom 
of their leader's approach, but nonetheless predict that the 
party will end up pushing for an election in the fall, 
instead of the summer.  Outside Ottawa, there is little 
public interest in this political theater.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The sudden -- and wildly unpopular, according to a 
new Canadian Press Harris Decima poll -- prospect of a summer 
election dimmed almost within hours of Liberal Party leader 
Michael Ignatieff's June 15 ultimatum-that-was-not-an 
ultimatum for greater clarity and accountability from the 
ruling Conservative Party (reftel).  During the House of 
Commons' question period on June 15 and in an unusual late 
afternoon press conference by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, 
the Conservatives lobbed a few mild concessions to the 
Liberal camp, notably pledges to consider extending 
Employment Insurance to the self-employed later this year, to 
provide a written update on the medical isotope shortage as 
well as to anoint an ""Isotope Czar,"" and to eliminate the 
budget deficits within five years.  PM Harper publicly poked 
fun at Ignatieff's non-specific brinksmanship by commenting 
""Usually, you say 'do X or else.'  You don't just say 'or 
else.'""  He nonetheless agreed to a June 16 meeting with 
Ignatieff to assuage Ignatieff's complaints that the two had 
not met since January. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  PM Harper and Ignatieff had their private meeting 
during the afternoon of June 16, in lieu of participating in 
the House of Commons' question period, and -- unusually -- 
agreed to meet again later in the day.  The PM's spokesman 
described it as ""good and productive.""  Even in their 
absence, the exchanges across the floor during question 
period were noticeably heated (especially in contrast to June 
15), with claims by the Liberals that Canadians would be 
""dying over the summer"" if the government did not ""fix"" the 
EI system immediately, and the Conservatives alleging that 
Ignatieff's threat to bring down the government unless he was 
satisfied on his four issues by June 19 was ""an abomination"" 
and that stimulus spending would virtually stop if the 
government fell on the 19th. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Liberal Foreign Affairs Critic and two-time 
leadership candidate Bob Rae opined to PolMinCouns on June 16 
that the chances of a summer election had now virtually 
disappeared, although he added that Ignatieff had been 
sincere in his willingness to go to the polls absent any give 
from PM Harper.  He admitted that, behind closed doors, the 
caucus had considerable reluctance to face the voters over 
the summer, but had been disinclined to try to overrule the 
relatively new leader.  He claimed that Ignatieff had ""made 
up his own mind"" on this brinksmanship approach without much, 
or perhaps even any, internal consultations;  ""Michael is an 
intellectual who is also a politician.  He does his own 
reading, makes his own analysis, and then comes to his own 
decision.""  Rae commented that, having come so close to 
bringing down the government this week, it was all but sure 
that the Liberals would do so in the fall rather than wait 
until early 2010, or else lose all credibility with the 
public and especially the party loyalists, as had happened 
with former leader Stephane Dion. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Comment:  Outside Ottawa, there is little public 
interest in this political theater and almost no appetite for 
a summer election.  The likelihood is that cooler heads will 
prevail and that both the PM and the Liberal leader will 
claim enough ""victory"" from their consultations to enable the 
budget estimates (a confidence vote) to pass on June 19 (with 
a vote now unusually scheduled for 10 p.m.) and for all 
parties to spend the summer either on vacation or courting 
their voters. 
 
Visit Canada,s North American partnership community at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
 
BREESE