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DE RUEHNR #1293/01 1771047
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FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9999

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001293 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR A/S CARSON AND NSC GAVIN FROM THE AMBASSADOR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: THE REFORM AGENDA - KEEPING THE PRESSURE ON KIBAKI 
AND ODINGA 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger, reasons 1.4 b,d 
 
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Summary 
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¶1. (C) The reform agenda will only be implemented if 
President Kibaki and PM Odinga exert strong leadership to 
make this happen.  We must continue to make clear to them the 
importance the U.S. at the highest levels attaches to this 
(which complements domestic-driven pressure for reform).  I 
recently met with interlocutors close to Kibaki and Odinga to 
press our message.  End summary. 
 
------------------------------- 
Need To Implement Reform Agenda 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Following up on the May visit by A/S Carson and NSC 
Senior Director Gavin, I recently met with presidency 
Permanent Secretary Francis Muthaura and Minister of Lands 
James Orengo to urge implementation of the reform agenda. 
These meetings were intended to press our messages to 
President Kibaki and Prime Minister, since Muthaura and 
Orengo are, respectively, among their closest confidantes. 
 
¶3. (C) My message was essentially the same with both. 
Following up on your visit, I emphasized our continued and 
growing concern about the need to move forward expeditiously 
to implement the reform agenda.  I pointed out that you would 
be returning to Kenya soon, thus highlighting the priority we 
attach to the reform agenda.  I noted concerns in Congress, 
and again emphasized that taking steps now to implement 
reforms would create a more positive context for Kenya at the 
AGOA forum.  I underscored our view that Kibaki and Odinga 
share joint responsibility to exert bold and decisive 
leadership to carry out the reform agenda. I emphasized the 
need for the President and Prime Minister to engage in 
dialogue with the Kenyan people, directly and through their 
teams, regarding the status of the reform agenda. I stressed 
the need for results. 
 
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Muthaura Admits Slow Pace, Blames Coalition 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Muthaura noted that President Kibaki has recently been 
more outspoken on reforms, including in his Madaraka Day 
address (see septel reporting on Kibaki,s clear statement 
against the culture of impunity).  Although arguing that 
progress is being made, he blamed lack of faster progress on 
differences within the coalition that have obscured the 
reform agenda.  He said that Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga 
are scheduled to meet on June 23 (they did meet; reported 
septel) to review the state of play on reforms and to work 
out next steps.  I urged that the coalition management 
committee be used to promote coalition coordination. The 
committee was established several months ago to promote 
coalition coordination, but has met only once.  (We know that 
Muthaura does not want the committee to meet because he 
cannot control it.) 
 
¶5. (C) I pressed particularly on the status of the 
constitutional review process, police reform, and judicial 
reform.  Muthaura noted that the budget just presented to 
Parliament contains substantial funds for the reform process 
(septel reports on the budget).  Muthaura said that Kibaki 
and Odinga are working towards achieving a consensus on key 
elements for constitutional revision.  Devolution of 
authority to local levels has been agreed upon.  Regarding 
division of executive power, Muthaura claimed the two sides 
will agree on &an improved version of what we have now.8 
 
¶6. (C) With respect to establishment of a Special Tribunal, 
Muthaura argued that moving too quickly could &even cause 
civil war.8  He claimed that Kibaki and Odinga pushed hard 
when the bill to establish a Special Tribunal was tabled -- 
and defeated -- in Parliament. (Note that Kibaki and Odinga 
did meet with Parliamentarians and were, extraordinarily, 
present in Parliament for the vote, but we have heard from 
multiple sources that this was largely window dressing 
without a strong behind the scenes push.)  Muthaura claimed 
that intensive consultations are underway within the 
coalition to work out a way to establish a Special Tribunal. 
If the Parliament cannot be persuaded to pass the 
constitutional amendment bill to establish a Special 
Tribunal, Muthaura said, then the Tribunal may be created 
using the existing constitution and legal structure.  I told 
Muthaura that, a constitutional amendment is essential to 
guarantee the independence of the Tribunal. It would be 
virtually impossible to find a way within existing structures 
 
to establish a Tribunal that would be credible to the Kenyan 
people and to the international community. 
 
¶7. (C) I pressed Muthaura on police and judicial reform.  On 
judicial reform, Muthaura said only that Minister of Justice 
Mutula Kilonzo is focused on judicial sector reform. 
Muthaura claimed that the Task Force on Police Reform will 
yield serious recommendations which will be implemented.  I 
told him that implementation of police reforms will not be 
credible as long as Commissioner Ali remains head of the 
police, given Ali,s involvement in extrajudicial killings, 
corruption, and other abuses.  Police reform should not be 
about individuals but rather institutions, Muthaura 
responded.  After I continued to press regarding Ali, 
Muthaura would only say &we,ll implement the task force 
recommendations, and then see about Ali.8 
 
------------------------------------- 
Orengo Pessimistic, Blames Leadership 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) After I reviewed the state of play along lines similar 
to those I employed with Muthaura, Orengo admitted 
frustration about the slow movement on the reform agenda.  He 
said that Prime Minister Odinga must bear substantial 
responsibility for this.  Orengo made clear his view that 
Kibaki and his people do not favor far-reaching reforms, but 
at the same time, he said, Odinga has not been forthright in 
driving implementation of the reform agenda.  Odinga has done 
nothing to reorganize his office to make it more effective; 
Odinga is a poor manager who does not follow up; and he is 
primarily focused on preparing for his presidential run in 
2012, Orengo said.  Odinga has avoided bold moves because he 
is &hostage to his difficult political constituency,8 
Orengo said.  In essence, Orengo concluded, Odinga wants to 
maintain support from the diverse elements of his Orange 
Democratic Movement coalition, and that means he has pulled 
his punches on issues like the Special Tribunal. 
 
¶9. (C) Orengo said that, given the lack of leadership by both 
Kibaki and Odinga, he does not believe that the reform 
process will move ahead quickly ) if at all.   Orengo said 
that the new draft national land policy may be discussed in 
the Cabinet on June 25 but, given the sensitive issues 
involved, he was not optimistic it would be implemented 
quickly. 
 
¶10. (C) Just as I urged Muthaura to brief Kibaki on our 
conversation (which he agreed to do), I urged Orengo to have 
a heart-to-heart discussion with Odinga.  Orengo said that he 
would do this, and commented that the concerns I expressed 
were valid.  Odinga needs to be shaken out of his 
complacency, Orengo commented.  I told Orengo that it is not 
too late for Odinga to embrace the reform agenda and push 
hard for its implementation.  We want to help him be 
successful as Prime Minister, because if he fails then the 
coalition will fail and the historic opportunity to bring 
about fundamental reform will be lost, with an increased 
likelihood for future instability. 
 
¶11. (C) Comment: We must continue to press Kibaki and Odinga 
hard to implement the reform agenda.  They need to know that 
we see them as having shared responsibility, thus 
forestalling their attempts to play the blame game while the 
reform agenda languishes.  Implementation will not happen 
without their decisive leadership.  Both men remain very 
sensitive to U.S. concerns and pressure. End Comment. 
RANNEBERGER