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OO RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #1179/01 1621456
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 111456Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9817
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUZEFAA/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001179 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PREF KPAO SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - SOMALILAND DEMOCRACY AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE 
 
Ref: Nairobi 1053 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Democracy in Somaliland is at a critical 
juncture.  After being delayed four times, presidential elections 
are scheduled for September 27.  However, negotiations are still 
under way between the three political parties regarding a Code of 
Conduct that attempts to level the playing field in the elections. 
The National Electoral Commission (NEC) is not prepared to lead the 
electoral process and remains the biggest obstacle to free and fair 
elections.  Embassy Nairobi strongly recommends a high-level visit 
from the Africa Bureau in Washington to Hargeisa in the next one or 
two weeks to meet with President Dahir "Riyale" Kahin, leaders of 
the two opposition parties and the NEC face-to-face and strongly 
condemn further delay, along with a press conference on site.  If 
travel to Hargeisa is not possible, Riyale should be asked to travel 
to Nairobi, Addis or Djibouti to meet.  Because Somaliland is a 
bulwark of stability and development in Somalia and plays a crucial 
role in the region, ensuring Somaliland's continued democratic 
development should be a top U.S. policy priority for the Horn of 
Africa.  Doing all that we can to ensure free and fair elections are 
held on September 27 is a major step in this process.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
Mediation Process Stalled 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) After weeks of escalating tension and negotiation (reftel), 
Somaliland President Riyale's party (UDUB), the two opposition 
parties (UCID and Kulmiye), and the NEC signed an agreement document 
on May 27.  It confirms that presidential elections will take place 
on September 27, 2009.  The document also calls for the 
strengthening of the National Electoral Commission (NEC), for the 
three political parties and the NEC to sign a Code of Conduct aimed 
at leveling the election playing field, and acknowledges agreement 
on certain key issues such as the voter registration process and 
equal media access and air time for the three political parties 
leading up to the election.  Our contacts tell us that Riyale balked 
at signing a prior agreement because of a specific clause that 
prohibits an extension of the presidential mandate if the elections 
do not take place on time, although the leaders of all three 
political parties (including Riyale) publicly stated their 
acceptance of the terms.  The clause regarding the presidential 
mandate was ultimately removed from the May 27 document, which was 
signed by UDUB Secretary-General Jama Yassin Farah for Riyale's 
party and by the Deputy Chairman and Secretary-General of UCID and 
Kulmiye, respectively. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Negotiations over the Code of Conduct began on May 28 and 
are on-going.  The Democracy Steering Committee, a group of 
Nairobi-based donors, is asking that the three political parties 
sign the document by June 21 to provide sufficient assurances that 
the major political actors in Somaliland are serious about moving 
forward with the September election.  Donors chose June 21 because 
experts estimate it will take approximately 14 weeks to get the 
technical aspects of the election in order.  However, as of June 10, 
the parties are still negotiating certain provisions in the Code, 
and it does not look like the June 21 deadline will be met. 
According to Interpeace (our NGO partner who has the lead on 
supporting the voter registration and electoral process), UDUB is 
not willing to accept two elements that donors are insisting be 
included in the document: strengthening the NEC and creating an 
arbitration mechanism to enforce the Code of Conduct. 
 
----------------------------- 
The NEC: The Biggest Obstacle 
To Free and Fair Elections 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The NEC currently has seven members.  Riyale directly 
appointed three of these members and greatly influenced the 
selection of the upper house of Parliament's, or the House of Elders 
(Guurti), two nominees.  The opposition parties appointed the other 
two members.  According to Interpeace, the chairman of the NEC--a 
Riyale appointee--is currently in Lebanon on a technical assessment 
mission, leaving the NEC leaderless, and the majority of the members 
of the NEC are "at odds with each other and not prepared to lead an 
electoral process." 
 
¶5. (SBU) The opposition parties, and Interpeace in private 
conversations, are calling for the NEC to be expanded by four 
members.  The May 27 agreement also calls for the NEC to be 
 
NAIROBI 00001179  002 OF 003 
 
 
"strengthened."  Experts in Nairobi say this could easily be done by 
voting in additional members by consensus, which would add 
competent, well-respected leaders to the NEC who could move the 
process forward.  However, UDUB is against this expansion and says 
it is too late to consider altering the NEC.  Riyale, who wields 
significant influence within the NEC, has done nothing to strengthen 
the body.  It is widely believed among Somaliland donors in Nairobi 
that unless the NEC is strengthened, free and fair elections will be 
nearly impossible.  In a June 5 conversation, a representative from 
Interpeace told the Somalia Unit that, "Interpeace will not 
participate in the electoral process unless the NEC is made 
competent." 
 
--------------------------------- 
Creating an Arbitration Mechanism 
To Enforce the Code of Conduct 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The draft Code of Conduct currently talks of establishing a 
nine person Election Board of Monitors, a three person Arbitration 
Panel and an international guarantor.  According to DFID colleagues 
in Nairobi, Kulmiye is seeking a single enforcement mechanism that 
comprises three members of each party plus two international 
members. UCID is open to suggestions.  UDUB sees no need for 
additional structures and feels that the existing 15 member Election 
Monitoring Board, appointed by the NEC--but whose mandate appears to 
have run out--should be reconstituted and should be the body that 
enforces the Code of Conduct.  Interpeace and the Somalia Unit agree 
that a stronger NEC would be able to facilitate a compromise on this 
issue. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Somaliland's Critical Role in Somalia 
And in the Region 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Somaliland is a comparative bulwark of democracy and 
development in contrast to the remainder of Somalia.  Somaliland 
transitioned to multi-party democracy in 2002 and has held 
relatively free and free elections since.  Somaliland has been 
successful in preventing pirates from running operations from its 
territory--unlike Puntland, its neighbor to the east--and in 
preventing designated Foreign Terrorist Organization al-Shabaab from 
gaining a foothold in the region.  Djibouti, which borders 
Somaliland to the north-west, heavily relies on Somaliland as a 
buffer to the instability and violence that characterizes much of 
the rest of Somalia.  Ethiopia also maintains strong relations with 
Somaliland because of security concerns, but also to maintain access 
to the port town of Berbera on Somaliland's northern coast.  Because 
of all this, ensuring Somaliland's stability and continued 
democratic development should be a U.S. policy priority for the Horn 
of Africa.  Doing all that we can to ensure free and fair elections 
are held on September 27 is a major step in this process. 
 
-------------- 
Moving Forward 
-------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Donors in Nairobi have agreed to collectively lobby Riyale 
in an attempt to keep the elections on track.  On June 21, former 
Special Envoy for Somalia John Yates called Riyale and insisted 
there could be no more delays, and on May 25 the European Union (EU) 
Special Envoy for Somalia reinforced Ambassador Yates' message to 
Riyale in a telephone call (reftel).  Donors have also sent a letter 
to the NEC and all three parties listing pre-conditions for 
re-engagement on the elections, including a binding agreement on 
September 27, fair and equitable use of state resources, endorsement 
of the final voter registration list, and a Code of Conduct with an 
enforcement mechanism.  Following the delivery of the letter in May, 
donor representatives, including delegations from the EU and United 
Kingdom, traveled to Hargeisa to further press on the elections 
issue.  (Note: Representatives from the Somalia Unit are unable to 
travel to Hargeisa because of Department restrictions on traveling 
to Somalia.  End Note.)  However, the mediation process to achieve 
these conditions has made little progress. 
 
¶9. (SBU) As a next step, Embassy Nairobi strongly recommends a 
high-level visit from the Africa Bureau in Washington to Hargeisa in 
the next one or two weeks to meet with Riyale, leaders of the two 
opposition parties and the NEC face-to-face and strongly condemn 
further delay.  If travel to Hargeisa is not possible, Riyale should 
 
NAIROBI 00001179  003 OF 003 
 
 
be asked to travel to Nairobi, Addis or Djibouti.  We would 
emphasize that increased development and counter-terrorism 
assistance to Somaliland would only start after a free, fair, and 
transparent electoral process.  We would perform a significant 
public diplomacy effort around this visit to maximize its impact, 
both with the Somaliland audience as well as the remainder of 
Somalia. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Riyale regularly holds closed-door meetings with 
international diplomats and then "spins" these meetings to his 
domestic audience as attempts at advancing the cause for 
Somaliland's recognition.  For this reason, the Somalia Unit also 
recommends a press conference in Hargeisa to maximize media coverage 
of our message and to ensure that our message is not diluted or 
twisted. Embassy Nairobi plans to begin a media campaign aimed at 
getting out the USG message on the scheduled September 27 election 
in Somaliland.  We plan to gradually escalate the frequency of the 
interviews as the September election date gets closer. 
 
RANNEBERGER