VZCZCXRO2302
RR RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHSL RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #1606/01 1691501
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181501Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3872
INFO RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 001606 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MCAP MARR RS ETRD BO
 
SUBJECT: CSTO RAPID REACTION FORCE LAUNCHED WITHOUT BELARUS, 
UZBEKISTAN; RUSSIA RESUMES BELARUSIAN DAIRY IMPORTS 
 
REF A: Moscow 1469 
REF B: Minsk 173 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Leaders of the Collective Security Treaty 
Organization (CSTO) on June 14 signed documents to create the 
Moscow-based CSTO rapid reaction force (KSOR).  Though in attendance 
at the summit, Uzbekistan did not sign the KSOR agreement, possibly 
for fear that KSOR may be used to settle conflicts between CSTO 
Central Asian member states.  Belarusian President Alexander 
Lukashenka's unexpected summit absence was in retaliation against 
Russia's recent imposition of trade restrictions on Belarusian dairy 
products.  The subsequent trade compromise indicates that 
Lukashenka's ploy succeeded.  End Summary 
--------------------------- 
Rapid Reaction Force Agreed 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Leaders of CSTO member states Armenia, Kazakhstan, 
Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan met in Moscow on June 
14 and signed documents to launch a collective rapid reaction force 
(KSOR).  Uzbekistan did not sign the agreements and decided to limit 
its participation in KSOR by contributing its detachments only on an 
ad hoc basis (ref A).  Russian experts reasoned that Uzbek President 
Islam Karimov feared KSOR could be used to deter domestic 
insurgencies, such as within Uzbekistan, or to settle possible 
regional clashes involving Uzbekistan. 
 
---------------------- 
Belarus Plays Hardball 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Notably absent from the summit was Belarusian President 
Alexander Lukashenka, who decided to not attend the talks to protest 
Russia's June 9 decision to impose trade restrictions on more than 
1,000 types of Belarusian dairy products (ref B).  Because the CSTO 
is a consensus-based organization, Belarus argued that all decisions 
made at the June 14 summit were void because it did not participate. 
 The Belarusian MFA handed a note to the CSTO secretariat stating 
that Belarus's non-participation in the CSTO talks is an expression 
of Belarus's "lack of approval of the decisions considered" at the 
summit and that there was "consequently a lack of consensus for 
taking these decisions."  Russian FM Lavrov responded that CSTO 
leaders would nonetheless be able to sign the KSOR documents without 
Belarus.  CSTO press-secretary Vitalius Strugovets concurred, 
stating that the CSTO Charter did not forbid CSTO leaders from 
making decisions in the absence of a member.  If no CSTO member 
declared its opposition to a motion or refused to sign the relevant 
resolution, the decision was considered ratified.  In a June 17 
press conference, MFA speaker Nesterenko confirmed that Russia 
considered the agreements "legitimate," based on Article 27 of the 
CSTO Charter. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Experts: Belarus Doesn't Need KSOR 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Though in military terms Belarus's absence from KSOR will 
have little impact, experts argued that politically, it was a blow 
to Russia's plans.  Russia needs Belarus - a key CSTO member - to 
give KSOR credibility; Russia views KSOR as a pivotal tool in 
dissuading regional threats evolving along its southern border (ref 
A).  Analysts agreed, however, that Belarus has no real interest in 
KSOR, as it has no perceived external threats, and considered KSOR 
and the CSTO to be an artificial Russian project stemming from an 
archaic realpolitik approach.  Experts said that CSTO Central Asian 
member states have dissimilar interests and perceive different 
threats; as such, it is hard to envision true military cooperation 
among KSOR partners (ref A). 
 
------------------------- 
Belarus: "Milk Hysterics" 
------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) In justification for its absence, the Belarusian MFA argued 
in a June 14 statement that Russia's trade restrictions "undermined 
the economic security" of Belarus and thus its overall security. 
Disregarding Russian FM Lavrov's statement that it was wrong to link 
bilateral economic problems to multilateral political-military 
initiatives like KSOR, Belarus stated that it would only sign the 
KSOR agreement once its economic security was restored. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Russian President Dmitri Medvedev rebuked President 
Lukashenka's summit snub by stating that "Belarus's actions have 
excessively politicized" a technical trade issue, but hoped that 
 
MOSCOW 00001606  002 OF 002 
 
 
Belarus's "milk hysterics" would not spoil KSOR.  The Russian dairy 
ban dealt an important blow to Belarus's budget revenue: 93% of 
Belarusian dairy exports, worth $1 billion per year, go to Russia. 
In what is taken here to be another apparent act of retaliation to 
Russia's trade restriction, Belarus announced on June 16 that cargo 
coming from Russia by truck or rail would be subject to stricter 
inspections. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Solution Found to Milk Conundrum 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Lukashenka's CSTO summit snub apparently had the desired 
effect.  On June 17, Russian and Belarusian officials agreed that 
while Russia will not buy Belarusian milk until October 2009 (to 
prevent the dumping of Belarusian powdered milk), Russia will 
increase imports of Belarusian curd cheese, cheese and butter. 
Russian import of Belarusian dairy products resumed on June 18; in 
turn, Belarusian authorities backed down from toughened customs 
controls on Russian transport entering Belarus.  Imports of 
Belarusian powdered milk will resume in the fourth quarter; this, 
experts argue, will help keep milk prices down when Russian milk 
production is lower.  Belarusian milk imports between October and 
December 2009 however, will not be allowed to exceed 15,000 tons, 
which is considerably less than what was imported in the first 
quarter of 2009.  Experts speculated that Lukashenka will now agree 
to KSOR due to the relaxation of Russia's ban on Belarusian dairy 
products. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Russia Temporarily Assumes CSTO Leadership 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) As Belarus was to take over the formal leadership of the 
CSTO from Armenia, Russian President Medvedev announced at the CSTO 
Moscow summit that Russia would temporarily assume the leadership 
until Belarus resumed its work in the group. 
 
BEYRLE