VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMN #0314/01 1591310
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 081310Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9063
INFO RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2624
RUCNMER/MESUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000314 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/BSC MARY DASCHBACH 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UY
SUBJECT:  SIGNS OF LIFE IN THE COLORADO PARTY? 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  After a historical drubbing in the 2004 elections, the 
once dominant Colorado party remains in the political 
wilderness.  While a victory in this yearQs presidential 
election is practically impossible, the partyQs long-term 
hopes for recovery lie with the dynamic figure of Pedro 
Bordaberry, who, although hampered by the fact his father is 
the ex-dictator Juan Maria Bordaberry, nevertheless strives to 
represent youthful political renewal.  End summary. 
 
 
The Colorado Party: Background 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  The party is traditionally liberal but, like all Uruguayan 
parties, its ranks cover the entire political spectrum.  Its 
strongest support tends to come from the countryQs 
metropolitan areas.  Historically, the Colorados have been the 
most elected party in Uruguayan history, with almost 
uninterrupted dominance during the 20th century.  They were in 
office from 1865 to 1959, were returned to office in 1966 and 
won the first elections at the end of the military 
dictatorship in 1984.  They also went on to win the elections 
in 1994 and 1999.  In 2004 however, the Colorados suffered a 
dramatic defeat, winning only a little over 10 percent of the 
popular vote.  Reasons for the party's poor showing were 
varied, but the economic crisis and the perceived advanced age 
of much of the partyQs leadership both seriously damaged the 
partyQs image.  The Colorado party has no cabinet members in 
the present government and holds only 13 out of 129 seats in 
the general assembly. 
 
Pedro Bordaberry: The Colorado PartyQs Savior? 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶3.  Currently enjoying 80 percent of his partyQs support, it 
is now almost certain that Pedro Bordaberry will be the 
ColoradosQ presidential candidate for the 2009 presidential 
elections.  The charismatic, energetic and handsome 49 year- 
old trained as a lawyer in both Uruguay and the U.S. 
Something of a renaissance man, he is also a rugby player and 
literary critic of some repute.  A well organized, talented 
manager, Bordaberry held the posts of minister of tourism and 
(briefly) of industry under the last Colorado government.  He 
is generally considered to have acquitted himself well while 
in office.  In 2005, he stood as the Colorado candidate for 
mayor of Montevideo.  Although he lost, he garnered an 
impressive 25 percent of votes. He is a highly able politician 
who employs an educated, yet simple and direct style of 
discourse.  He is a fluent English speaker, is friendly to the 
U.S. and is an excellent Embassy contact. 
 
¶4.  BordaberryQs political history is defined in part by the 
figure of his father Juan Maria Bordaberry, who, although 
elected to the presidency in 1971 was effectively the 
military-sponsored dictator of the country between 1973 and 
¶1976. In 2006 he was arrested in connection with the 1976 
assassination of two legislators and, for health reasons is 
currently serving his sentence between his home and the 
hospital.  Pedro Bordaberry was very public in his defense of 
his father, and won respect in some quarters for having done 
so.  Nevertheless, the Bordaberry name carries markedly 
negative connotations in Uruguay and it is noticeable that 
much of Pedro BordaberryQs campaign material uses his first 
name rather than his surname.  BordaberryQs effort to 
disassociate himself from the legacy of the dictatorship (he 
often notes that he was three years old at the time of the 
military takeover) appear to have been largely effective. 
 
¶5.  Such was the impact of the 2004 loss that much of the 
Colorado party machinery and the factions that maintained it 
are still in a state of collapse.  Furthermore, much of the 
party is presently hobbled by a long-standing and ongoing 
rivalry between party patriarchs (and ex-presidents) 73 year- 
old Julio Mara Sanguinetti and 81 year-old Jorge Batlle. 
Bordaberry, despite having his career launched by Batlle, is 
perceived as being relatively independent.  BordaberryQs two- 
year-old QVamos UruguayQ faction (QLetQs Go Uruguay!Q) claims 
to represent a Qnew centralismQ.  While Vamos Uruguay has so 
far offered little in the way of concrete policy beyond 
general assertions about the need to address crime, education 
and declining public morality, it has nevertheless succeeded 
in striking a note of renewal sorely lacking in the Colorado 
party as a whole. Increasingly, BordaberryQs faction is able 
to draw support even from party members once closely 
affiliated with the old guard.  A video on BordaberryQs 
QFacebookQ profile highlights his relative youth, arguing that 
 
the incumbent Frente Amplio party represents not the beginning 
of a political project, but the end of a political generation 
led by ministers in their 70Qs and 80Qs.  BordaberryQs 
election propaganda is similarly sprightly and stands out from 
the slew of competing material by virtue of a succinct 
elegance and a sense of fun. 
 
A Wary Electorate 
----------------- 
 
¶6.  While BordaberryQs success within the party seems 
unassailable, his momentum has so far failed to rehabilitate 
the Colorado party in the wider electorate.  With the party 
presently defending a measly 8 percent support rate there is a 
real risk that the partyQs presence in Parliament may drop 
even further after the election.  For Bordaberry and the 
Colorados, much depends on the possibility of a second stage 
run off. If the face-off battle between the FA and the Blanco 
(National) party is close enough, BordaberryQs support could 
be crucial.  A Colorado seat in a National party government 
may then be a possibility. 
 
¶7.  Although some political commentators believe that the 
Colorado partyQs decline is terminal, many think that 
Bordaberry and the Colorados have brighter prospects in the 
longer term.  Bordaberry is under no illusions concerning his 
chances of victory in 2009, but he and his team do nurse hopes 
for a much stronger showing in 2014, the year of the next 
presidential election.  One analyst said that while he 
believed a Colorado recovery to be possible, it would take at 
least ten years to achieve. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8.  Providing he continues to gain ground against the 
increasingly ossified party leadership, Bordaberry undoubtedly 
represents the best hope for the Colorado party survival. 
Whether he can revive the partyQs fortune with the Uruguayan 
electorate, however, is less certain.  With 80 percent of the 
vote divided between the two main parties, any recovery, even 
in the medium term, will be minimal.  2014 may be too soon to 
expect the return of the Colorados, but unlike the rest of the 
countryQs political front runners, Bordaberry has the youth to 
afford a couple more warm-up laps.   End comment.