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DE RUEHME #1758/01 1692248
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R 182248Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7012
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFIUU/HQ USNORTHCOM
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 001758 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: MIDTERM ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: SOME UPS AND DOWNS FOR 
THE SMALL PARTIES 
 
REF: A. MEXICO 1683 
     ¶B. MEXICO 1667 
     ¶C. MEXICO 1461 
     ¶D. 08 MEXICO 3800 
     ¶E. 08 MEXICO 3670 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Patchy alliances may be the key factor to 
keeping afloat at least three of the five small parties, 
disadvantaged by the 2007 electoral reform, after the 
upcoming midterm elections July 5 in Mexico.  The Green Party 
(PVEM) polls the highest, capturing attention by advocating a 
return to the death penalty and maintaining its alliance with 
the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in a number of 
Congressional districts.  Likewise, the coalition formed late 
last year between the far-left Labor Party (PT) and 
center-left Convergencia, supported by Andres Manuel Lopez 
Obrador (AMLO), may keep those parties accredited after the 
elections.  The other two small parties, the Social 
Democratic Party (PSD) and Nueva Alianza, are in danger of 
not reaching the two percent of the vote necessary to 
maintain their registration according to the most recent 
polls.  End Summary. 
 
Midterm Election by the Numbers 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Several of the small parties have strengthened their 
position in recent months, according to a nationwide poll 
conducted in late May by the daily La Reforma: 
 
PRI:              37% 
PAN:              31% 
PRD:              16% 
Green Party:       6% 
PT:                4% 
Convergencia:      3% 
Nueva Alianza:     2% 
PSD:               1% 
 
The Green Party (PVEM) 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Of the five small parties, the Green Party of Mexico 
(PVEM) continues to poll the highest nationwide.  PVEM 
members have positioned themselves between the other four 
small parties and, in their view, the discredited three large 
parties as Mexico's only "medium-sized" party, boldly 
asserting it aspires to overtake the PRD as Mexico's third 
political force.  Aside from its environmentally oriented 
platform, promise to revamp public education and boost public 
health programs, the party is best identified with its 
controversial stance on re-instating the death penalty (which 
resulted in its ejection from the worldwide coalition of 
green parties).  This platform plank is part of a package of 
proposed security reforms, such as boosting the federal 
government's anti-kidnapping resources, which hit several hot 
buttons in Mexico. Despite the fact that PVEM's proposals 
have been variously attacked as unworkable, fiscally 
non-viable and a draconian step backwards by the other 
parties, academics and human rights activists, the modest 
gains PVEM has registered in recent surveys indicate that its 
campaign strategy is showing some results. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The party will participate in 63 of the 300 
Congressional districts with the PRI and hopes to pull in 
nine to ten percent of the vote nationwide and increase its 
representation in the Chamber of Deputies.  Green Party 
member Jesus Sesma, wrapping up his term as a Federal Deputy, 
confided to Poloff that the new electoral reforms have 
hampered his party's efforts to appeal to voters, citing its 
meager share of the media time allocated by the Federal 
Electoral Institute to the parties.  PVEM's share amounts to 
one fifth of that of PAN, he complained.  Nonetheless, he 
thought the Green Party is the only small party likely to 
secure one or possibly two directly elected representatives. 
 
Labor Party (PT) 
---------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The far-left Labor Party (PT) labels itself as the 
last remaining Marxist-Leninist party in Mexico.  While 
 
MEXICO 00001758  002 OF 003 
 
 
cynics assert that the party is more opportunistic than 
ideologically committed, one of its founders and two-time 
Federal Deputy, Ricardo Cantu, demonstrated ample conviction 
in a recent conversation with Poloff.  Cantu claimed a 
perfect fit in the current alliance between the moderate, 
social democratic Convergencia and communist-oriented PT, 
both of which agree that government institutions in Mexico 
are not working and that the state must play a dominant role 
in managing the economy because the free market is not 
advancing the common good. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Despite the well-publicized break with the PRD last 
fall, PT is actually allying with the PRD in several local 
elections in Mexico City, teaming up in races for seven 
borough assembly seats.  Many of these PT candidates in 
Mexico City are using a picture of AMLO in their campaign 
ads.  The strategy has some voters confused.   While Cantu 
credits AMLO for getting many PRD voters to opt for PT (14% 
in Mexico City according to La Reforma's poll), he conceded 
that some from the PT have split to join the PRD. (That 
party's president told the Charge' in March that it had 
mounted a concerted effort to attract PT members.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) PT's image may be undermined by the current 
controversy surrounding its Senate leader, Ricardo Monreal, 
whose family stands accused of having ties to 
narco-traffickers in the state of Zacatecas.   Monreal only 
recently returned to the Senate after a leave of absence and 
is being hammered by political competitors on the left, who 
also have implied his party's funding (and AMLO's political 
movement) benefit from shady financing. 
 
Convergencia 
------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Although its recent poll numbers are up from 
January, many observers continue to believe that neither 
Convergencia's alliance with PT, nor the support being 
provided by AMLO, is paying dividends.   Most believe that 
even if it captures the two percent of the national vote it 
needs to maintain its accreditation and public funding as a 
party, it will barely survive in the Chamber of Deputies with 
a few proportional representation members.  An estimated 
10,000 rank and file PRD members defected and signed up with 
Convergencia late last year after the decision was made not 
to align with PRD.  However, the Citizen Renovation Group 
(RECI) faction of Convergencia then broke ranks and 
affiliated with PRD on March 1.  According to leader of 
faction, Jose de Jesus Paredes Flores, Convergencia was 
"losing touch with the populace," citing a lack of commitment 
to a results-oriented platform. 
 
Social Democratic Party (PSD) 
----------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) The tiny Social Democratic Party (PSD) supports a 
mix of measures designed to appeal to "progressive" Mexicans: 
 legalized abortion and drugs, education reform, expanded 
access to the internet and gay rights.  The party has the 
only openly gay candidate in the elections, Miguel Galan, 
running for mayor of Guadalajara.  PSD also promises to 
create more jobs and improve public safety by improving the 
police and judicial systems.  However, embittered by having 
been jettisoned by the PRD late last year, PSD has been 
lashing out widely at other leftist parties in the hopes of 
attracting their voters.  In addition to making allegations 
against PT Senator Monreal, PSD President Diaz Cuervo 
publicly called the PRD nothing more than a recycled PRI 
party run by bosses who were formerly from that party.  He 
announced he would seek a federal investigation into how 
ex-presidential candidate AMLO had been financing his 
political movement since 2006, alluding to the widespread 
rumor that the movement was subsidized by Mexico City 
government funds.  Without an alliance with a larger party, 
the PSD, by many accounts, is this election's most vulnerable 
party, in danger of disappearing altogether after the July 
vote.  At the very least, it will lose seats in the the 
Chamber of Deputies. 
 
Nueva Alianza (PANAL) 
--------------------- 
 
MEXICO 00001758  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Nueva Alianza is also in danger of falling below 
the two percent minimum it needs to maintain its 
accreditation.  The party continues to make education its top 
issue and has typically drawn much of its support from 
teachers.  It has formed alliances with the PAN in the past, 
but this year negotiations failed on a national scale.  Nueva 
Alianza cited internal conflicts within the PAN and a lack of 
commitment on education reform, while the PAN was concerned 
about the role of National Teachers Union leader Elba Esther 
Gordillo.  The highly divisive Gordillo was instrumental in 
helping found Nueva Alianza in 2005.  Last year, she 
supported President Calderon's controversial Alliance for 
Quality Education, which subjects teachers to tougher testing 
and ends the practice of teachers' selling or bequeathing 
their positions upon retirement.  One of the reasons Nueva 
Alianza is doing poorly in the polls is because of its 
relationship to Gordillo.  Widespread protests side-tracked 
the proposal and undermined Gordillo's standing among 
teachers, undoubtedly impacting the performance of Nueva 
Alianza. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment:  The new electoral law, particularly its 
disincentives to forming electoral coalitions between the 
large and small parties (reftel), has accentuated the 
weaknesses of the latter.   At least two will not likely 
survive the upcoming electoral test.  End Comment. 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity and the North American 
Partnership Blog at http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap / 
 
BASSETT