VZCZCXRO8677
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHRN
DE RUEHMR #0194/01 1661033
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151033Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY MASERU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4220
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RUEHMR/AMEMBASSY MASERU 4648

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MASERU 000194 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S AND INR/AF:RITA BYRNES 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV LT
SUBJECT: ALLOCATION OF PARLIAMENTARY SEATS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE 
LOCAL POLITICS 
 
REF: A) MASERU 116;  B) MASERU 113;  C) MASERU 136 
 
MASERU 00000194  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
------- 
Summary 
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¶1. In the aftermath of the April 22 attacks in Maseru (ref A), 
GOL authorities and members of the security establishment have 
asserted that the situation is back to normal.  However, in 
recent days the issue of allocation of proportional seats in the 
National Assembly has resurfaced.  This thorny issue has been a 
source of discontent among opposition parties since the 2007 
general elections (ref B).  Members of the general public have 
brought this issue up on local radio call-in programs, urging 
politicians to address this issue before the situation 
deteriorates.  Other local activists have called on the Prime 
Minister (PM) to reshuffle some Ministers and Ministries and 
include opposition members in the newly reformed Cabinet in 
order for political stability to prevail (ref C). 
 
------------------------------------ 
History of the failed SADC mediation 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. In October 2008, the political dialogue collapsed between the 
GOL and opposition parties regarding the disputed allocation of 
seats in the National Assembly.  According to local media and 
analysts, this was caused by "arrogant and intransigent" 
politicians who have failed to embrace dialogue as a way of 
advancing peaceful and lasting solutions (ref C).  Opposition 
parties wanted to invite international electoral experts to help 
determine if the "Mixed Member Proportional" (MMP) electoral 
model mandated by Lesotho law was correctly implemented during 
the 2007 elections.  The GOL was opposed to bringing in experts. 
 Opposition parties wanted the recommendations of the 
international experts to be binding.  Neither side could agree 
to terms for the proposed memorandum of understanding, and the 
intransigent stance of both parties lead to a standstill in the 
negotiation.  SADC negotiator Sir Ketumile Masire expressed his 
frustration with both sides before leaving Lesotho in October 
2008 without any resolution to the process.  Currently there are 
no formal plans to restart the talks. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
The public wants to see change in the Cabinet 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. Disgruntled ordinary citizens vented their frustration over 
the radio waves during the past week.  On Friday, June 6, on 
Harvest FM's current affairs call-in program "Rise and Shine", 
members of the general public urged Prime Minister Mosisili to 
reshuffle his Cabinet.  (Note: Radio call-in programs on current 
affairs issues are a common barometer for measuring public 
opinion.  End note.)  They cited poor service delivery as a 
primary reason for their request.  They called on the PM to 
include experienced opposition members in his future cabinet. 
Meanwhile, a well placed source in the governing party indicated 
that members of the Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD) youth 
league have advised the PM to fire some ministers and replace 
them with loyal competent party members.  The same sources also 
point out that Prime Minister Mosisili is now reluctant to 
proceed with a cabinet reshuffle because there is a rumor that 
some ministers - suspecting they would lose their portfolios - 
have stated at the governing party caucus that they will defy 
the PM's decision to fire them unless he also resigns. 
 
¶4. According to the June 11 issue of the Lesotho Times 
newspaper, the governing LCD party's Youth League wrote a 
petition urging Mosisili to restructure his cabinet, and to 
dismiss some ministers for alleged corruption.  The petition is 
reported to have been given to the Minister of Communications 
and Secretary General of the LCD, Mothejoa Metsing, to submit to 
the Prime Minister.  One youth league member was quoted as 
saying, "The youth are focusing on ministers and their principal 
secretaries because their offices are actually a breeding ground 
for corruption."  Another stated:  "The abuse of state funds and 
property is rife within government ministries and the youth have 
called for the termination of the constitutional practice 
whereby the Prime Minister selects members of the Cabinet at his 
own discretion."  The Lesotho Times indicated that Metsing 
confirmed the existence of the petition but refused to discuss 
its contents. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
Public calls for "revolution" in the ways of government 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶5. On Monday June 9, during the PC FM morning show "Thaha-Meso," 
callers accused the governing LCD of manipulating the MMP 
electoral model.  They also urged the PM to allow experts to 
come to Lesotho to assist in rectifying the incorrect allocation 
 
MASERU 00000194  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
of proportional seats in the National Assembly.  During another 
"Rise and Shine" call-in program on the morning of June 10, the 
allocation of seats once again became the subject of a heated 
debate.  One caller warned that if "the owner of a dog has a 
tendency to step on the dog's tail, and this continues over a 
long period, one day, the dog will bite the owner."  Others 
pointed out that a revolution was necessary to correct the 
situation in the country.  (Comment:  We analyze the use of the 
word "revolution" in this context to simply indicate the need 
for a change in the ruling party, with increased pressure on the 
PM to consider a Cabinet reshuffle.  Post does not interpret 
this to be an actual call to arms.  End Comment.) 
 
----------------------- 
Is there a way forward? 
----------------------- 
 
¶6. Failure to continue the dialogue has made the possibility of 
a resolution to this conflict very unlikely.  The LCD does not 
believe that it has anything to gain by compromise, since 
neither SADC nor the local courts will force the issue.  Some 
local analysts suggest that a government of national unity is 
the only answer to the current political stalemate.  It is 
unclear at this point what the next course of action will be 
regarding the stalled talks on allocation of seats.  According 
to some academics, the lack of tolerance by the governing party 
has exacerbated the situation in the country, with each side 
suspicious of, and unwilling to deal with, the other. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Comment:  Ruling party holds all the cards 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. The issue of the allocation of proportional seats keeps 
coming up in various forums, demonstrating the importance of the 
matter for opposition parties and its increasing gravity for the 
everyday citizens of the country.  It is also clear that 
internal divisions are slowly brewing within the LCD party. 
Some local observers fear that the parties' unwillingness to 
compromise and find a solution could lead to political 
instability.  Others have accused the LCD of arrogance and lack 
of commitment to a resolution.  In order to reach a lasting 
solution, difficult concessions would have to be made which 
would satisfy the desires on both sides.  However, with the LCD 
party still currently holding all the trump cards, post does not 
expect to see this kind of compromise occur. 
NOLAN