VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #0490/01 1691900
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 181900Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7757
INFO RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0571
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2381
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO 6027
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS KINGSTON 000490 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT PASS EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE FOR INFO 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (DHOFFMANN) 
(BALVARADO) (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) 
EEB/ESC/IEC/EPC (MCMANUS) 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
INR/RES (RWARNER) 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: JLP WINS BIG IN NORTH EAST ST. CATHERINE BY 
ELECTION, MAINTAINING SLIM MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 232 
     ¶B. 08 KINGSTON 398 
     ¶C. KINGSTON 436 
     ¶D. KINGSTON 452 
     ¶E. KINGSTON 405 
     ¶F. KINGSTON 315 
 
Summary 
------ 
 
¶1. (U) Gregory Mair, the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Member of 
Parliament (MP), won handily a court-ordered by-election over the 
opposition People's National Party's (PNP) candidate, Granville 
Valentine on June 15.  Mair almost tripled his margin of victory in 
the 2007 general election and preserved the governing JLP's slim 
parliamentary majority.  Jamaica's Court of Appeals had declared the 
seat vacant last month because Mair had held dual 
Jamaican-Venezuelan citizenship at the time of his 2007 nomination. 
Mair subsequently renounced Venezuelan citizenship and was 
renominated on May 29.  The by-election appears to have been orderly 
and well-run, with the JLP apparently better organized and funded 
than the PNP.  At least two more pending dual citizenship cases are 
likely to result in by-elections in coming months; the PNP would now 
have to win both to break the JLP's hold on power.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2. (U) Mair's reelection comes on the heels of JLP MP Daryl Vaz's 
by-election victory in West Portland in March, 2009 (Reftel A), a 
result of the first of four cases challenging the eligibility of 
sitting JLP MPs on dual citizenship grounds. The electoral 
challenges had been filed against their opponents by four PNP 
candidates defeated in the September, 2007 general election, 
alleging that the Jamaican Constitution prohibited dual nationals 
from being nominated for public office.  Mair won the by-election by 
a margin of more than 2,600, garnering 6,329 votes to the PNP's 
3,672 and maintaining the JLP's narrow 32-28 seat hold on 
Parliament.  Valentine's defeat also raises more doubts as to PNP 
President and former Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller's 
(PSM) leadership of her party.  At least two, and perhaps as many as 
eight, similar challenges might lead to by-elections in the months 
ahead. 
 
¶3. (U) The results in North East St. Catherine were not surprising. 
Since the establishment of full adult suffrage in 1944, the PNP has 
only won the constituency five times in sixteen national elections, 
and then only by narrow margins.  Although Mair has only held the 
seat since September, 2007, he has by all accounts been quite active 
in the constituency; in fact, the JLP's lavishing of public works 
projects on the area drew a formal protest from the PNP the day 
before the election.  Media accounts as well as PNP and JLP contacts 
affirmed that the JLP enjoyed considerable advantages in the 
by-election in terms of incumbency, funding, and organization. 
Although polling showed that Phyllis Mitchell, the PNP candidate 
Mair had defeated in 2007 and who filed the electoral challenge that 
forced the by-election, would have been much more competitive, she 
declined to run and the PNP thus turned to the lesser-known 
Valentine instead. 
 
Low Voter Turnout, Violence Free 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Partnering with representatives from the Canadian and British 
High Commissions, Poloff visited several polling locations in the 
constituency as a guest of the Electoral Commission of Jamaica 
(ECJ).  Unlike the charged atmosphere in March's West Portland 
by-election, there was little evidence of tension or unrest in 
bucolic North East St. Catherine, the most rural of Jamaica's 60 
constituencies.  Depressed by apathy and an early afternoon 
rainstorm, turnout was lower than anticipated, with just over fifty 
percent of eligible voters casting ballots. Lines at polling places 
were short and orderly, with green JLP t-shirts outnumbering 
orange-clad PNP supporters in most locations.  Security personnel 
from the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) and Jamaica Defence Force 
(JCF) were present to dissuade violence, and no incidents were 
reported.  Likewise, election observers from Jamaica's Citizens for 
Free and Fair Elections (CAFFE) reported no significant evidence of 
 
electoral law violations, and only minor glitches occurred with the 
ECJ's fingerprint identification system. 
 
Dissent Within The PNP Ranks 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) In both by-elections thus far, the JLP incumbents were able 
to not only hold onto their seats, but to increase their margins of 
victory considerably over those of 2007.  Meanwhile, the PNP 
strategy (Comment: if indeed it can be called such - there has been 
speculation that PSM was not fully briefed in 2007 on the potential 
political repercussions of the dual nationality challenges. (Reftel 
B) End Comment) of challenging the 2007 results on constitutional 
grounds appears to have backfired.  Amidst public grumbling over the 
costs of the by-elections during a period of economic austerity, the 
PNP have had difficulty raising campaign funds, demonstrated poor 
organization, and fielded weak candidates. 
 
¶6. (U) PSM's low visibility during the campaign - she only appeared 
in the constituency for campaign events seven times, compared to PM 
Golding's 12 - suggests that she might be attempting to distance 
herself from the party's poor showings. Indeed, evidence of PNP 
dissatisfaction with the party's leadership may be growing.  The day 
after the election, PNP General Secretary (and a potential Simpson 
Miller successor) Peter Bunting posted on his Facebook profile page 
the quote: "Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again, and 
expecting different results.  Albert Einstein."  Several other PNP 
members responded online by indicating that they "liked" the 
comment, which likely referred to the by-election results, including 
PNP Deputy General Secretary Julian Robinson.  Later, however, the 
posting and associated comments were removed from Bunting's online 
profile page.  Nevertheless, PNP sources suggest dissatisfaction 
with Bunting as well, likened to a "Blackberry General Secretary" 
who doesn't spend sufficient time on the hustings. 
 
Future By-Elections 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) However, the PNP might have reason for optimism should the 
remaining dual nationality challenges result in by-elections, as 
appears likely (Reftel C).  On July 27, the Court of Appeals is 
scheduled to hear the electoral challenge to the candidacy of JLP MP 
Michael Stern, a dual U.S./Jamaican national, in the North West 
Clarendon constituency.  While North West Clarendon has historically 
voted JLP, the margins often have been close.  Although Stern is 
reputed to be a better political organizer than Mair and Vaz, he 
will likely again face businessman Richard Azan, the well-funded 
former PNP incumbent Stern defeated in 2007 and who subsequently 
filed the challenge.  With Azan's name recognition and history in 
the district, the JLP might have a more difficult time retaining 
this marginal seat, especially given speculation that the PNP had 
been holding back on spending in North East St. Catherine in 
preparation for a North West Clarendon by-election. Although sources 
suggest both parties have already sent advance teams into the 
constituency in preparation for the next by-election, PNP contacts 
report that "they are taking bets among themselves" that the JLP 
will prevail yet again. 
 
¶8. (U) The PNP might face a more difficult scenario in the North 
East St. Ann constituency when the election challenge to JLP MP 
Shahine Robinson's nomination and her dual U.S./Jamaican citizenship 
is heard. Although the JLP didn't win the PNP bastion for the first 
time until 1980, Robinson took the seat for the JLP in a 2001 
by-election, then doubled her margin of victory in the 2002 general 
election.  Robinson increased her margin of victory yet again in the 
2007 general election, suggesting that it will be very difficult for 
the PNP to pry the seat away from the very visible, prominent junior 
cabinet minister. 
 
Golding's Challenges 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) In addition, PM Golding has threatened to challenge as many 
as six sitting PNP MPs on dual citizenship grounds (Reftel 452). 
Speculation has centered on Sharon Hay Webster of the South Central 
St. Catherine constituency and Ian Hayles of the Hanover Western 
constituency, both of whom are believed to have dual U.S./Jamaican 
citizenship.  Other PNP MPs rumored to be in the PM's sights include 
 
Dr. Fenton Ferguson of East St. Thomas, George Anthony Hylton of 
West St. Andrew, Lisa Hanna of South East St. Ann, and Peter Bunting 
himself of Central Manchester, often considered a likely successor 
or challenger to PSM as party leader. 
 
¶10. (U) Were these PNP candidacies to be successfully challenged, 
the JLP might conceivably pick off a couple of PNP seats and 
strengthen its parliamentary majority.  While South Central St. 
Catherine, West St. Andrew, South East St. Ann, and Central 
Manchester are all PNP bastions and unlikely to fall to the JLP, the 
more marginal Hanover Western and East St. Thomas constituencies 
might be ripe for the picking.  Although Golding has been critical 
of the PNP's strategy of using the courts to achieve what they 
couldn't at the ballot box (Reftel D), he might prefer to go that 
route himself rather than face the uncertainties of a snap national 
election. 
 
Conclusion 
---------- 
 
¶11. (U) The PNP's defeat in North East St. Catherine reflects poorly 
on Simpson Miller's leadership and suggests a party that remains in 
disarray following its 2007 defeat.  Despite the PNP's efforts to 
make the by-election a national referendum on the JLP's 18 months in 
power, local issues - jobs and public works projects - appeared to 
prevail, as is usually the case in such contests.  Furthermore, the 
PNP risks provoking a backlash, both within the party as well as 
society at large, should the seemingly endless string of expensive 
by-elections begin to be perceived as wasteful and extravagant 
during a period of economic crisis, financial austerity, and the 
prospect of government budget cuts and tax increases. (Reftel E, F) 
PNP contacts report a general sense that the party is in a worse 
state than the JLP during its political nadir in the 1990s. 
 
¶12. (U) The JLP's parliamentary majority, on the other hand, appears 
to be secure for the time being.  With two more by-elections likely, 
the JLP need win only one to retain its governing majority.  Should 
it do so, a snap election would be unnecessary and the JLP would 
have no reason to file challenges against any PNP MPs with dual 
nationality issues, although the Golding administration might still 
choose to do so in order to bolster its parliamentary majority. 
Whether the JLP would then use this political stability, however 
tenuous, to address Jamaica's myriad economic and social concerns 
would remain to be seen. End Comment. 
 
Moss