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OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0794/01 1800842
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 290842Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4006
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000794 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E, DRL 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UNSC AU SU
SUBJECT: GOS MINISTER MICHAEL MAKUEI OFFERS PESSIMISTIC UPDATE ON 
CPA BENCHMARKS 
 
REF: A. Khartoum 785 
¶B. Khartoum 634 
¶C. Khartoum 562 
¶D. Khartoum 240 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  On June 24, Michael Makuei Lueth, the Government of 
Southern Sudan's (GOSS) Minister of Legal Affairs and Constitutional 
Development, gave a pessimistic update to the Southern Sudan 
Legislative Assembly (SSLA) on the stalled negotiations to adopt and 
revise legislation needed to implement the 2010 elections and the 
2011 referendum on southern self-determination.  Makuei called the 
2010 election "in question," citing delays in launching voter 
registration, demarcating borders, and revising problematic laws. 
He also conveyed strong SPLM preferences to provide a clear 
legislative framework governing the referendum; to minimize the 
national government's role in conducting the referendum; and to 
postpone post-CPA arrangements until after the referendum's result 
is known. END SUMMARY. 
 
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REFERENDUM COMMISSION: SOUTHERN APPOINTEES AND HEADQUARTERS 
PREFERRED 
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¶2. (U) Makuei's remarks came as one of several responses from GOSS 
ministers during the SSLA's open session on June 24.  He focused on 
the stalled negotiations between the Sudan People's Liberation 
Movement (SPLM) and the National Congress Party (NCP) to implement 
the southern referendum on self-determination, regarding which the 
CPA left several key issues unresolved.  Makuei identified the 
composition of the Referendum Commission, the process of nominating 
its members, the location and function of its offices, 
referendum-day polling locations, and the arrangements for 
post-referendum governance as the key points of contention (refs B 
and C). 
 
¶3. (U) The SPLM has proposed a nine-member Referendum Commission, 
including three nominated by the Government of National Unity (GNU) 
and six (including the chairperson) nominated by the GOSS.  The NCP, 
instead, has proposed a commission of 15, Makuei reported, including 
ten members nominated by the GNU and five by the GOSS, with two of 
the members serving as co-chairs.  Makuei rejected such a joint 
chairmanship, noting that the CPA identifies only the National 
Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) and the National Petroleum 
Commission as jointly-chaired bodies.  While the NCP wants the 
referendum commission's GNU-appointed members to be selected by the 
Presidency, Makuei insisted that it be further spelled out that this 
means members can only be nominated with the First Vice President's 
consent. 
 
¶4. (U) The two parties have agreed that the Commission will be 
seated in Khartoum, and have an office in Juba.  Makuei reported, 
however, that the NCP continues to resist the SPLM's proposal that 
the Juba office be an operations center charged with executing as 
much of the referendum process as possible, with powers clearly 
assigned to it by law. 
 
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THE REFERENDUM: VOTE ONLY IN THE SOUTH, NEGOTIATE THE DAY AFTER 
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¶5. (U) Makuai said to substantial applause that the SPLM opposes the 
NCP's proposal that Southern Sudanese be able to vote in selected 
population centers outside Southern Sudan. (COMMENT:  Indeed, the 
SPLM's draft referendum legislation specifically prohibits voting - 
even by Southerners in the Diaspora - outside of Sudan.  END 
COMMENT.)  He took the opportunity to criticize  the still-disputed 
census results, arguing that the controversially low number of 
southerners reported to be living in the north undercuts the NCP's 
argument that voting needs to take place outside the south. 
 
¶6. (U) Finally, on a major point of strategy, Makuei argued against 
the NCP's proposal that the referendum law should specify 
post-referendum governance arrangements.  Makuei said that the SPLM 
sees these as "a separate issue" and prefers to handle them in a 
separate agreement once the referendum's outcome is known.  (NOTE: 
The SPLM draft law on the South's referendum includes language that 
supports the conduct of the Referendum on January 9, 2011, with a 
six month period to establish modalities for separation or continued 
unification by July 9, 2011 (ref C).  END NOTE.) 
 
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KHARTOUM 00000794  002 OF 003 
 
 
MAKING ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE THREE AREAS 
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¶7. (U) Makuei also addressed disagreement over implementation of the 
Abyei referendum and the Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan popular 
consultations.  Makuei said that the SPLM believes the Abyei 
referendum should be governed in the same way as the southern Sudan 
referendum:  with an implementing law, rather than under a 
presidential order, as the NCP proposes.  Makuei's position was 
similar on the two popular consultations, insisting that a national 
law that would provide uniform procedures across both states is 
needed, rather than allowing the states to develop their own, as the 
NCP is purported to have proposed.  [Note:  The SPLM has developed 
draft legislation for the Abyei Referendum and the popular 
consultations in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile, but the NCP 
continues to make an argument that such legislation is not necessary 
(ref D).  End Note.] 
 
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2010 ELECTIONS: ENABLING ENVIRONMENT NOT YET SATISFACTORY 
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¶8. (U) Delays in legislative reforms provoked Makuei to express 
concern over limited progress toward the 2010 elections, which he 
said are "in question."  The stalemate over the National Security 
Service's (NISS) arrest powers remains contentious.  According to 
the Minister, the SPLM has offered to "agree to disagree" on this 
issue by submitting to the National Assembly a bill that the SPLM 
finds unacceptable.  The NCP has so far resisted this approach, 
preferring to have the cover of SPLM consent rather than using its 
majority to pass the bill over SPLM objections.  In reference to 
revising the Popular Defense Forces Law, the Popular Police Law, and 
the Public Order Law, Makuei reported being told by a "very senior" 
northern official (an oblique reference to Bashir), "Don't attempt 
to move on these laws." 
 
¶9. (U) Makuei also criticized the National Election Commission for 
starting to work on constituency delimitation in what he said is the 
absence of consensus in the Presidency on the census results (ref 
A).  SSLA Speaker James Wani Igga argued in the same session that 
the Southern census results were doomed by the North's ability to 
manipulate the overall results, and Makuei defended the referendum 
commission's need for a Juba-based operations office by pointing to 
the marginalization of Southern High Committee on Elections Chairman 
Cesar Archangelo. 
 
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NEXT STEPS 
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¶10. (U) The CPA-established timeframe for reformed legislation on 
the southern and Abyei referenda has long-since past - the two laws 
were to be adopted in 2007, and the corresponding commissions 
established shortly thereafter.  Makuei noted that the SPLM had 
originally insisted that the referendum law be passed before the 
National Assembly's recess, but the Assembly recessed on June 24, 
and will not return until October.  Makuei said that the 
negotiations on these issues will move from the joint SPLM/NCP 
Executive Committee talks to the NCRC.  The latter is set to meet 
every Saturday and Sunday and aim for a breakthrough - and a draft 
law for the GNU cabinet's consideration - by September.  Makuei 
cautioned, however, that "we should not be surprised" if the 
Assembly ultimately dissolves to prepare for 2010 elections without 
having taken action on key legislation. 
 
¶11. (SBU) NCRC Co-Chair Abdulla Idris told poloffs on June 25 in 
Khartoum that the SPLM approached the body two weeks ago on the 
referendum law, saying that it had reached a "deadlock" with the NCP 
on the draft legislation.  The SPLM requested the NCRC act as broker 
between the NCP and the SPLM, as well as other opposition parties, 
to find consensus on a draft Referendum Bill so that it could be 
tabled before the Parliament before elections are held.  Idris said 
that the NCRC responded by establishing a 15-person sub-committee 
composed of NCP, SPLM and other opposition parties representatives 
to debate the bill.  According to Idris, GoSS Minister Makuei acts 
as the lead SPLM negotiator on the bill and Ibrahim Ghandour, the 
powerful parliamentarian and president of the Sudan Workers Trade 
Union Federation, serves as the lead NCP negotiator.  Other 
committee members include former National Democratic Alliance (NDA) 
Secretary Faroug Abu Eissa, State Minister of Justice Wek Mamer Kuol 
(SPLM), and Chairperson of the National Assembly's Legal Committee 
Badria Suleiman (NCP). 
 
¶12. (SBU) Idris said that the sub-committee has decided to set aside 
 
KHARTOUM 00000794  003 OF 003 
 
 
the most contentious issues of the bill for now - the definition of 
who may vote and whether the Referendum-Commission Juba Office will 
have exclusive power - in order to make some progress in moving 
forward.  He noted that the NCRC should be able to finish the bill 
by the time Parliament reconvenes in October, so that it can be 
tabled and debated before elections are held.  If the elections date 
slides, that's one thing, said Idris, but if we [the NCRC, GoSS and 
GNU] do not meet the 2011 Southern Sudan referendum deadline [of 
January 2011], the South may spin out of control. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶13. (SBU) Makuei's assessment of the stalled status of 
national-level legislation, such as the Security Law and the 
Referendum Bill -  despite Kiir's June 21 travel to Khartoum and the 
NCP's veiled promise to "deliver" on at least the Referendum Law 
prior to the Washington CPA Conference is troubling.  Moreover, the 
SPLM's decision to try to force the tabling before the National 
Assembly of a National Security Act that the SPLM itself admits is 
unacceptable is a bad start to reform of laws necessary to create a 
free and fair environment for 2010 national elections.  The USG 
should t stress that the contentious issues of the Security and 
Referendum Bills must be sorted out among the parties, so that 
elections can proceed properly from the outset.  This will allow 
Referendum planning to begin in earnest, including the essential 
task of looking at what follows the January 2011 referendum, 
whatever its outcome. 
 
WHITEHEAD