VZCZCXRO5095
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0768/01 1721334
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 211334Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3961
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KHARTOUM 000768 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A A/S CARTER, AF/E 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID SOCI ASEC KPKO AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: THREE AREAS UPDATE - NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND OLD CHALLENGES 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 752 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (U) On June 16, the Three Areas Donor Steering Group discussed 
developments in the operating environment in Southern Kordofan and 
Abyei.  The group also discussed Steering Group participation in the 
June 22-23 Forum for Supporters of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement 
(CPA) hosted by Special Envoy for Sudan Scott Gration in Washington. 
 Participants agreed the forum presents the opportunity for 
high-level engagement on a range of issues pertinent to the Three 
Areas.  These include improvements in the operating environment, 
federal commitments to fiscal transfers to state administrations, 
and concerns regarding an ineffective U.N. Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) 
in Abyei.  Three Areas Donor Steering Group Strategic Advisor Jason 
Matus reported on his recent travel to the region, noting 
significant progress in state-level commitments to facilitate 
recovery and development assistance in Southern Kordofan.  However, 
he also spoke about worrying trends and tense security conditions in 
Abyei in the lead up to the anticipated July announcement by The 
Hague's Permanent Arbitration Court of its decision on border 
demarcation.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
Three Areas Steering Committee 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) On June 16, representatives from the European Commission, 
the Swedish Embassy, the Canadian Embassy, the U.K. Department of 
International Development (DFID), and USAID's Offices of Transition 
Initiatives and U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, met for a Three 
Areas Working Group discussion of current developments in these 
states and to strategize about potential items for discussion at the 
upcoming CPA Forum in Washington.   The Steering Group is to be 
represented by Strategic Advisor Jason Matus at the meetings, which 
will include high-level delegations from CPA signatories and 
witnesses. 
 
¶3. (U) Matus recently returned from Abyei and Southern Kordofan, 
where he met with state/administration-level officials and sought to 
gain traction for key operating-environment improvements necessary 
for CPA implementation and the facilitation of recovery and 
development assistance.  Matus provided starkly different outlooks 
for each area:  an extremely positive view of potential improvements 
in Southern Kordofan and an alarmingly negative account of current 
developments in Abyei Area.  Matus plans to provide this field 
perspective, as well as to table the Steering Group's priority 
discussion items, at next week's CPA meetings. 
 
---------------------- 
Abyei:  Tensions Mount 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) During his early June visit to Abyei, Matus noted an 
increasingly tense situation in the entire area under arbitration. 
Matus reported that Dinka Ngoc families are moving south, while 
Misseriya traders are departing towards the north, anticipating 
violent reactions to The Hague's Permanent Court of Arbitration 
Abyei border demarcation decision announcement, expected before July 
¶23.  Matus relayed worrying messages from government officials that 
indicate a lack of understanding regarding the arbitration decision 
- including misperceptions that the decision will determine whether 
Abyei is part of the north or the south.  Matus expressed concern 
regarding the implications of pre-emptive population movements, as 
well as ongoing insecurity and violent incidents along the 
Kharasana-Heglig road.  These incidents indicate a disturbing 
security void in the area in the run-up to the arbitration 
decision. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) At the same time, UNMIS peacekeepers charged with 
maintaining peace and supporting the Abyei Area Administration are 
limited to the Abyei Road Map area and lack a presence in other 
areas under arbitration.  Matus noted that the potential for violent 
outbursts following the arbitration decision is even higher in areas 
beyond the Road Map boundaries.  However, UNMIS currently has no 
presence north of Abyei, in Misseriya areas in the western sector of 
Southern Kordofan State.  UNMIS engagement in this area is necessary 
to manage conflicts related to Abyei area and to protect Ngok Dinka 
communities there.  In addition, Steering Group participants noted 
that the UNMIS sector-management approach, with no overall 
coordinator working across sector borders, lacks flexibility to 
respond to outbreaks of conflict. 
 
 
KHARTOUM 00000768  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Police presence and UNMIS monitoring are critical to 
prevent localized conflicts from escalating into clashes between 
armies.  However, Matus reported a lack of police presence in the 
area including no   police chief.  UNMIS must identify potential 
flashpoints and reposition peacekeepers, particularly if Sudanese 
Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) 
soldiers do not follow through with agreed troop withdrawals.  In 
addition, Matus pointed out that the Joint Integrated Unit (JIU), 
Joint Integrated Police Unit (JIPU), and civil affairs will play 
critical roles in preventing the worst-case scenario.  Matus noted 
that Valentino, the respected JIU commander, will rotate out in the 
coming week, with no capable replacement in sight.  [Note:  The May 
2008 fighting that destroyed Abyei town began and escalated in 
Valentino's absence.  It is widely believed that had he been there, 
the conflict would not have escalated.  End note.] 
 
¶7. (SBU) Matus reported concerns that as tensions mount in Abyei, 
SPLA troops are encroaching into the humanitarian zone in and around 
Agok, where relief agencies are providing assistance to the Abyei 
IDPs and host communities.  Matus, an experienced relief worker, 
commented that the presence of armed soldiers in the civilian zones 
is the greatest threat to humanitarian agencies because the armed 
soldiers have repeatedly been involved in fights and fired weapons. 
During his visit, Matus delivered a clear message to Abyei 
Administration representatives:  Agok must be demilitarized. 
 
¶8. (SBU) While tension mounts in Abyei Area, non-governmental 
organizations (NGOs) also face ongoing constraints, most notably 
harassment by Bol Dau Deng, the Abyei Southern Sudan Relief and 
Rehabilitation Commission (SSRRC) representative.  Deng is 
extrajudicially taxing distributions, denying stay permits, and 
generally dominating the NGO environment, according to Matus.  Matus 
raised the issue with the Abyei Administration leadership.  As 
elections approach, Matus cautioned Abyei authorities against 
adopting a "returns first" or "filling Abyei" approach to elections 
and the referendum.  Matus stated that such coercive approaches to 
increase either Misseriya or Dinka voting populations would be 
particularly volatile and further destabilize the region, 
potentially creating additional humanitarian needs. 
 
¶9. (SBU) At the Administration level, budget woes continue to mount, 
with little funding available for capital and development 
expenditures.  Further, the Presidency has drawn up plans to 
re-structure the Abyei Administration, splitting ministries between 
the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-appointed (SPLM) 
Administrator and National Congress Party-appointed (NCP) Deputy 
Administrator.  [Note: This plan corresponds with the Deputy 
Administrator's previous comment to USAIDoff that the NCP is 
attempting to channel all the Administration's development funds 
through him, instead of the formal SPLM-led channels of government. 
End note.] 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Abyei Administration remains dependent on the 
Government of National Unity's (GNU) -- and therefore NCP's -- 
time-table and project priorities.  The first phase of USD 59 
million in funding received was used primarily to pay salaries and 
operating costs. Although the Presidency has not provided 
development or support for basic services, it did recently provide 
the Administration with late-model land cruisers.  [Note: Similarly, 
the then-SPLM Governor of Southern Kordofan received no funds from 
the Presidency to provide development of services to citizens during 
his governorship, but did receive new vehicles, thus creating a 
public perception that the Governor was more interested in his own 
than in his constituent's welfare.  End note.]  The Steering Group 
noted the importance of timely fiscal transfers from the federal 
level to Three Areas administrations to enable those governments to 
implement fundamental aspects of the CPA effectively. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Southern Kordofan: Haroun Means Business 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) From June 4-9, Matus traveled to Southern Kordofan to 
introduce the Three Areas Steering Group to the newly-appointed 
Governor and Deputy Governor, sit in on the joint state and federal 
planning and budget meeting in Kauda, and discuss ways to improve 
Southern Kordofan's working environment for NGOs, private companies, 
and donors.  Matus observed that Governor Ahmed Haroun and Deputy 
Governor Aziz Adam al-Hilu are working diligently together and have 
plans to quickly integrate and develop former SPLM-controlled areas, 
aiming to make significant progress prior to the February 2010 
general elections.  Matus said the Governor and Deputy Governor held 
successful meetings in Kauda with the state ministries and SPLM 
*Secretariats, during which the Governor announced plans to provide 
assistance in Kauda and integrate the civil administration and civil 
 
KHARTOUM 00000768  003 OF 004 
 
 
service into state payrolls. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) While some question International Criminal Court indictee 
and former Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs State Secretary Haroun's 
motives, Matus opined the Governor's stated priorities are a marked 
improvement over the previous administration.  He said he belives 
there is now an opportunity to create momentum toward stability and 
development in Southern Kordofan.  Haroun reportedly agreed to work 
on initial and multi-entry visas for NGO staff, support NGO and 
donor travel using identification cards rather than travel permits, 
and facilitate state-level, rather than federal-level technical 
agreements.  However an unlikely figure, Haroun, in Matus' view, 
could be an ally to assist the Three Areas development community in 
moving balanced recovery forward and development programming and 
improvements in the operating environment. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Steering Group participants noted that several commitments 
made by Haroun are federal-level responsibilities; including 
resolving NGOs' concerns regarding visas, travel permits, and 
technical agreements.  It remains to be seen whether or not Haroun 
holds the power at the state level and/or the influence at the 
federal level to reduce the existing federal bureaucratic 
impediments.  However, whatever his ability to change the operating 
environment, they concurred that Haroun's agreement with the 
Steering Group's priorities is a welcome development.  A notable 
exception is the "two-door policy," by which NGOs working in former 
NCP and SPLM-controlled areas could co-register in Khartoum and 
Juba.  Haroun removed this Steering Group suggestion from his 
priority list. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Matus noted that, after years of neglect, he believed 
Southern Kordofan now has the potential to surge ahead of Abyei and 
Blue Nile in recovery and development, due to Governor Haroun's 
promised rapid improvements in the operating environment and civil 
administration.  Haroun and Deputy Governor Aziz have not indicated 
interest in championing reform in the entire Three Areas; however, 
progress made in Southern Kordofan could lend momentum to other 
area's discussions.  The planned Three-Areas Governor's Forum could 
provide a platform for such a dialogue, focusing on necessary 
conditions for stability and development. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Joint Communique: Still in Question 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (U) Head of the Three Areas UN Resident Coordinator's Office 
Clark Soriano briefed Steering- Group participants on potential 
mechanisms to improve the Three Areas operating environment for 
NGOs, UN agencies, and donors.  The UN is considering advocating for 
one of four approaches, including:  1) developing  one or more Joint 
Communiques for the Three Areas that would be separate from the 
Darfur Joint Communique, 2) supporting state governors or 
administrators to make state-level improvements, 3) continuation and 
extension of established mechanisms through the Ministry of 
International Cooperation (MIC) and current UN mechanisms, and 4) 
establishing monitoring mechanisms based on the Three Areas 
assessment reports.  Soriano noted that the key question is:  Which 
option offers the most leverage and presents the best opportunity 
for all stakeholders, including the Government of Southern Sudan, to 
engage in the process? 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Participants agreed that the MIC unquestionably lacks the 
capacity and leverage with the GNU Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC) 
to take up NGO concerns.  Thus, making MIC responsible for key 
operating environment improvements, such as visas and travel 
permits, would be ineffectual.  In addition, donors observed that, 
while state-level officials have the greatest incentive to make 
improvements and open their states to recovery and development 
funding, it remains to be seen whether federal-level officials could 
hold state-level progress hostage. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) A high-level committee and Joint Communique focused on 
the Three Areas could offer opportunities to engage all of the 
relevant Three-Areas stakeholders at the federal and state levels, 
including those controlling the bureaucratic procedures that impede 
the progress of recovery and development activities and GOSS and 
SPLM representatives.  However, as one donor noted, the Darfur Joint 
Communique has yet to reduce restrictions and improve access to 
levels required for successful development programming, which 
requires consistent unimpeded access and confidence in the rule of 
law.  The UN is keeping its options open on this issue, but seems 
less interested in developing a Three Areas Joint Communique. 
 
---------------------- 
Key CPA Forum Messages 
 
KHARTOUM 00000768  004 OF 004 
 
 
---------------------- 
 
¶16.  (U) As highlighted in the Steering Group's discussions, 
enhanced security, fiscal transparency and stability, and improved 
conditions for recovery and development remain vital to the full and 
peaceful implementation of the CPA in the Three Areas.  Participants 
agreed that the Three Areas Steering Group Strategic Advisor should 
raise three related issues at the upcoming CPA Forum: 1) security 
improvements through flexible and balanced UNMIS deployments; 2) 
progress in the Three Areas operating environment through a Joint 
Communique or other mechanism; and 3) GNU compliance with existing 
agreements, including timely and transparent fiscal transfers to 
state and local administrations. 
 
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Comment 
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¶17.  (SBU) A series of events, including the NGO expulsions, the 
appointment of Haroun as Southern Kordofan governor, and the 
anticipated Abyei arbitration decision, place the Three Areas at a 
critical juncture for stability, recovery, and development, 
providing a mixed outlook of what the future may hold for the 
region.  Positive movement on state integration and CPA 
implementation in Southern Kordofan will be hampered unless the 
operational environment for development programs and regularized, 
significant, and transparent fiscal transfers to the state 
government are improved.  Reports of renewed tension in Abyei and a 
lack of effective security mechanisms there are troubling.  The CPA 
Forum offers an opportunity to clarify the way forward and determine 
whether the relevant actors, including UN, federal, and state 
officials, will agree on steps to improve the situation and build 
the foundation for a lasting peace. 
 
ASQUINO