VZCZCXRO2511
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0729/01 1581423
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071423Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3917
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000729 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: DARFUR UPDATE: PROXY REBELS RETREAT TO LICK THEIR WOUNDS 
AFTER UNSUCCESSFUL MAY OFFENSIVES 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  JEM forces have reportedly returned to Chad. 
There is no confirmation that Sudanese warplanes have attacked JEM 
positions in Chad.  JEM appears to have been significantly weakened 
following its May offensive in Sudan.  Chadian rebels have returned 
to Sudan.  While they claim to be planning another attack, this is 
unlikely due to their rout by Chadian government forces last month. 
UNAMID's recently arrived Deputy Force Commander, RSA Maj. Gen. Duma 
Mdutyana, acknowledged   UNAMID lacks important assets, and cannot 
function as an all-African force.  No imminent humanitarian 
emergency threatens El Fasher's Zam Zam Internally Displaced Persons 
(IDP) camp, but leaders there reported IDPs continue to trickle in 
from South Darfur.  El Fasher authorities have implemented a 
security roundtable to prevent internecine GOS shootouts in the El 
Fasher marketplace.  Meanwhile,  hijackings and armed robberies 
continue. End summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Citing reports from their team sites and Sudanese Armed 
Forces (SAF), UNAMID confirmed on June 3 that the Government of 
Sudan (GOS) controls the towns of Umm Barro and Karnoi, and all 
fighters from the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) have returned 
to Chad.  Chadian media suggested that Sudanese warplanes bombed JEM 
positions, but UNAMID and Darfur rebel sources denied the reports, 
and no there is no confirmation of the rumors from  North Darfur's 
border areas.  Some IDPs have sought protection near  the UNAMID Umm 
Barro team site.  The Senegalese battalion there  is providing 
limited humanitarian and medical assistance.  UNAMID has recorded 
few civilian casualties as a result of the fighting in May between 
JEM, the GOS and Sudanese Liberation Army/Minni Minnawi (SLA/MM. 
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) reported to UNAMID that JEM gave 
civilians prior warning to avoid the site of their planned attacks. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In the wake of their unsuccessful May offensive, JEM has 
become a weaker force, according to UNAMID civil affairs officer and 
rebel faction expert Hideo Ikebe.  Although JEM successfully 
recruited  SLA/MM and SLA/Unity commanders from Dar Zaghawa earlier 
this year, they failed in efforts to enlist Zaghawa communities 
against  what JEM termed GOS and SLA/MM "occupation" of the western 
North Darfur.  With Khalil Ibrahim's JEM force having retreated to 
their base in Umm Jaras, SAF has fortified the towns of Karnoi and 
Umm Barro with Mi-24 Hind helicopter gunships and military 
assistance from SLA/MM.  UNAMID has confirmed that in addition to 
incurring serious casualties in their May 24 attack on Umm Barro, 
JEM morale has ebbed significantly.   JEM's chief field commander 
Hamid Shartai was killed and Bakhit Karima was gravely wounded 
during  May offensives. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Minni Minnawi confirmed that all JEM forces have returned 
to Chad and denied reports that the GOS has conducted aerial bombing 
raids into Chadian territory.  Speaking with poloff on June 2 in El 
Fasher, Minnawi said that JEM has returned to Chad with little to 
show for its  May offensive, having lost at least 50 vehicles, 60 
fighters, and several main commanders as well.  With the GOS gaining 
ground in the border areas, Minnawi downplayed reports of a military 
alliance between his forces near the Chadian border and the SAF, 
telling the DCM and polchief on June 3 that his Darfur Peace 
Agreement (DPA)-signatory movement and the government forces have 
coordinated on intelligence, but the SAF is not providing military 
logistical or material support to SLA/MM forces.  Minnawi said  JEM 
had captured some  60 SLA/MM prisoners in May, and insisted they be 
released immediately and not as part of the stalled GOS-JEM prisoner 
exchange discussions in Doha.  "Khalil Ibrahim is trying to engage 
us in the conflict, but we are not part of it," Minnawi said.  "He 
needs to release our men immediately." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Abakar Tollimi, Khartoum-based political chief of the 
Chadian rebel group, Union of Resistance Forces (UFR), told polchief 
on June 3 that UFR and aligned rebel groups have completely returned 
to positions inside Sudanese territory.  Acknowledging the rebel 
group incurred heavy losses in fighting inside Chad on May 7-8, 
Tollimi said remaining UFR troops are "focused on training," and 
while they may stage another attack, they do not currently possess 
enough resources to fight anew.  Besides additional aerial assets, 
Chadian forces, according to Tollimi  had intel from the French on 
rebel movements and positions in the field.  Tollimi noted the May 
UFR offensives (heading west) and JEM (heading east) were both 
overwhelmed by aerial firepower of the opposing government forces. 
UFR desires direct negotiations with the GOC, he said, and Tollimi 
requested a meeting with Special Envoy to Sudan Gen. Scott Gration. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  South African Major General Duma Mdutyana, new Deputy 
Force Commander (DFC) for UNAMID, told poloff on June 2 in El Fasher 
that he recognizes the challenges ahead for the UN/AU joint 
peacekeeping force in Darfur.   DFC Mdutyana intends to spend this 
month traveling throughout the region to view the challenges and 
 
KHARTOUM 00000729  002 OF 002 
 
 
terrain firsthand, but already understands that the mission has 
taken on enormous responsibilities.  "Time is running out for the 
people of Darfur," he said.  "Our mission needs to grow in size and 
strength."  DFC Mdutyana thanked the U.S. for its continued support 
to UNAMID, and added that the support of the international community 
was vital as the fledgling peacekeeping mission struggles to obtain 
essential logistics and aviation assets:  "UNAMID cannot be an 
all-African effort.  We must have the support and the contribution 
of the international community, including the United States." 
 
¶7. (SBU) On a June 2 visit to Zam Zam IDP camp, Umdas (traditional 
leaders) thanked the U.S. for continued humanitarian attention to 
the beleaguered camp of 100,000 Zaghawa displaced from locations 
throughout North and South Darfur.  Chief Umda Mohamed Osman 
acknowledged that while conditions in the camp are still 
"miserable," with only one functioning health clinic, no preschools 
and no veterinary services available, imminent disaster has been 
avoided for the time being thanks to the assistance of Relief 
International and UNICEF.  Site of the April 4 visit of SE Scott 
Gration, Zam Zam continues to receive Zaghawa IDPs who trickle in 
from isolated locations in South Darfur, and Umda Osman added that 
IDPs are confident in that UNAMID's Formed Police Unit can protect 
the camp, monitoring for security incidents and resolving disputes 
in cooperation with security forces from SLA/MM. 
 
¶8. (SBU) GOS authorities within El Fasher have taken a pro-active 
stance to prevent internecine conflict in the North Darfur capital, 
according to the UN Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS). 
Following a marketplace shootout in May between the Border 
Intelligence Force (BIF) and GOS Central Reserve Police (CRP) that 
left over 20 people dead, National Intelligence and Security 
Services (NISS) in El Fasher have begun convening regular security 
roundtable meetings with representatives from NISS, SAF, BIF, CRP 
and DPA-signatory rebel movements to address security violations 
within the city.  In a June 2 visit to El Fasher's market, Poloff 
saw two unmanned belt-fed, truck-mounted machine guns with uniformed 
SAF soldiers nearby.  El Fasher remains a high-crime area, with 
senior UNAMID military staff victims of a home invasion on the 
evening of May 30.  Forcing their way into the compound, armed 
thieves held up two uniformed Western military officers and stole 
their UN vehicle, phones and laptop computers.  After the officers 
informed the UN, who then passed the message on to local police, 
blue-shirted Central Reserve Police (CRP) officers stopped the 
thieves' vehicle three hours later as it drove around El Fasher well 
past the UN-mandated 2100 curfew.  The thieves fled the vehicle at 
the police checkpoint, and CRP shot the three assailants dead as 
they attempted to escape. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment:  This season's spate of proxy warfare on the 
Chad-Sudan border has been far less successful for the rebels (both 
Sudanese and Chadian) than last year's, as the under-armed Chadian 
rebels have limped back to West Darfur, and the poorly-commanded JEM 
has wasted more Chadian resources in its assaults on the GOS. 
Although the conflict remains unresolved and its root causes 
unaddressed, the May offensives have been limited to deserted 
reaches of Chadian and Sudanese territory and have spared civilians. 
 In a briefing on May 24, UNAMID leadership voiced concerns that the 
proxy war in Darfur could develop into a direct Sudan-Chad war. 
This appears unlikely for now, and the upcoming rainy season should 
buy the peace process more breathing room.  End comment. 
 
WHITEHEAD