VZCZCXRO0497
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0726 1551243
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041243Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3913
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000726 
 
DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C 
NSC FOR MGAVIN 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NCP OFFERS ELECTION STRATEGIES AND STRESSES POST-REFERENDUM 
STABILITY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On June 2, CDA Whitehead made introductory calls 
on Presidential Advisor Ghazi Salah Eddin as well as NCP strategists 
Yahya Babiker and Sayed Al-Khateeb.  The NCP praised the Obama 
Administration's "new approach" to U.S.-Sudanese relations, provided 
some insight into NCP election strategies, and stressed the 
importance of stability in approaching the landscape of a 
post-referendum Sudan in 2011 and beyond.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Presidential Advisor Dr. Ghazi Salah Eddin welcomed CDA 
Whitehead by declaring with a smile that he was pleased to see the 
U.S. and Sudan "engaged at this level for the first time in 20 
years," noting the recent invitation for the NCP to go to Washington 
for a June 23 meeting.  Regarding  his recently being assigned the 
Darfur portfolio, Salah Eddin claimed that the "problem has 
ripened," and is "ready for fresh ideas."  He stressed that any 
solution to the Darfur crisis needs Chadian buy-in, and that talks 
in Doha have now "bogged down."  He added that both sides need to 
get away from "minor issues that don't concern Darfuris," citing as 
an example the ongoing dispute between  the Justice and Equality 
Movement and the Government of Sudan over prisoner releases. 
Regarding preparations for the June 23 conference in Washington, he 
pledged that "the humanitarian issue" involving the international 
NGOs would be solved and "out of the way" within the next three 
weeks.  On Abyei, Salah Eddin said that while both sides had "agreed 
in theory" on the outcome of arbitration in The Hague, the issue 
remains a "silent crisis." 
 
¶3. (SBU) Salah Eddin proclaimed "it is in the interest of us all to 
hold elections soon," and stated that the NCP's preference would be 
to "maintain its alliance with the SPLM" despite what he termed the 
SPLM's "unreliability" caused by its "internal factions."  Due to 
this, Salah Eddin predicted a possible "anti-NCP alliance" scenario 
for election day, though he proffered hope that the SPLM might still 
take the NCP up on the latter's "fair deal" offer of  power- sharing 
and resolution of North/South border issues.  Asked whom the SPLM 
might propose as an anti-NCP alliance candidate, Salah Eddin said 
"perhaps someone like Malik Agar, someone who can present himself as 
the 'African' candidate and straddle the North/South divide." 
Rather ominously, Salah Eddin concluded his discussion of elections 
by warning that "we are aware of the divide-and-rule strategy that 
the SPLM is now using in the South ... and we are better at it than 
they are." 
 
¶4. (SBU) In regard to the 2011 referendum in the south on possible 
secession.  Salah Eddin hinted that the law governing the process 
might be finalized and passed soon, possibly in the next three weeks 
(before the CPA Forum Conference in Washington.)  However, he warned 
that "because of an inappropriate exercise of SPLM power," the 
referendum act may lie stagnant in the National Assembly.  Salah 
Eddin said he believes that, in the end, "secession will happen, but 
that the South will suffer for such an emotional choice."  He 
stressed the need for a coherent plan for stability in a post-2011 
Sudan, regardless of the outcome of the referendum. 
 
¶5. (SBU) At the Center for Strategic Studies, an NCP think-tank, NCP 
insiders Yahya Babiker and Sayed Al-Khateeb offered similar views on 
the importance of a stable, post-referendum Sudan.  On the U.S. 
role, the two strategists suggested that an "endorsement of unity" 
is needed to "ensure faithful implementation of the Comprehensive 
Peace Agreement (CPA)" and that the NCP/SPLM partnership in the 
Government of National Unity needs to be "revived" at both the 
national and state levels.  Should the referendum end up splitting 
Sudan in two, Al-Khateeb stated "it might not be the worst possible 
outcome... a clean break would be better than a messy unity or a 
messy break." 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: While all three NCP hands were on message, Salah 
Eddin offered the most candid assessment of current political 
rumblings within the party.  While these NCP officials all expressed 
continuing good will toward the U.S. in the wake of Special Envoy 
Gration's two visits, it will be interesting to see whether or not 
the NCP is able to deliver on both the NGO issue and the referendum 
law before the June 23 meeting in Washington.  Salah Eddin certainly 
appears sincere in his efforts to achieve these goals.  During 
meetings with the MFA and Humanitarian Assistance Comission (HAC) on 
June 4, the GOS announced that due to Dr. Ghazi's personal 
intervention, Mercy Corps Scotland and CARE International Geneva 
will both be registered within one week; that visas will be approved 
expeditiously; and that the HAC will show more flexibility on the 
transfer of assets of expelled NGOs to new or existing NGOS, per the 
U.S.-Sudan April 10 understanding on humanitarian assistance. 
 
WHITEHEAD