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Viewing cable 09KATHMANDU473, NEPAL: ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09KATHMANDU473 2009-06-08 00:44 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Kathmandu
VZCZCXRO2647
PP RUEHCI
DE RUEHKT #0473/01 1590044
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 080044Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0273
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6980
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 2625
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 5347
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3061
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 4620
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHHJJPI/PACOM IDHS HONOLULU HI
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000473 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ELAB ENRG ETRD PGOV NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 
2009 
 
 1. (U)  Below is a compilation of economic highlights from 
Embassy Kathmandu for the month of May 2009, including the 
following: 
-- Food Crisis Leaves Millions Hungry 
-- Electricity Supply Improves, But Not for All 
-- Bank Lending Growth Rate Slows 
-- Declining Number of Workers Going Overseas 
-- Tourist Arrivals by Air Fall 
 
Food Crisis Leaves Millions Hungry 
--------------------------------- 
 
2. (U)  A severe winter drought has left about 3.4 million 
people with an inadequate food supply, according to a report 
issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operatives 
(MoAC) in mid-May. The food crisis has affected people living 
in hill and mountain districts throughout the country, except 
in eastern Nepal.  The Far-Western Region and Mid-Western 
Region have been particularly hard hit.  The MoAC estimates 
that two-thirds of the population in the mountains of the Far 
West have been affected by the food crisis, which is expected 
to last for another seven months.  In the Midwest, where the 
crisis is expected to persist for at least six months, about 
53 percent of the people do not have enough food. 
 
3. (U)  The food crisis was sparked by one of the worst 
droughts in the history of Nepal.  Some districts in Mid- and 
Far-Western Nepal reported receiving less than 50 percent of 
the average precipitation between November 2008 and February 
2009.  Nationwide, yields for wheat and barley, two principal 
winter crops, fell by 14 and 17 percent respectively, while 
yields in the Mid- and Far-West plummeted by more than half. 
The crisis was exacerbated by a two-week bandha in the Terai, 
which ended on May 4.  The strike crippled transportation in 
the region, which is Nepal's agricultural belt. 
 
4. (U)  In late May, the UN Food and Agricultural 
Organization (FAO) and World Food Program (WFP) announced 
that they were increasing their assistance to those affected 
by the food crisis.  WFP officials said they planned to 
provided subsidized food to another 700,000 people in the 
worst-hit areas, while FAO officials said they are expanding 
food-for-jobs and food-for-training programs in these areas. 
 
Electricity Supply Improves, But Not For All 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (U)  On May 31, the Nepal Electrical Authority (NEA) 
announced that it would cut the ongoing eight-hour daily 
load-shedding in half, beginning the next day.  NEA officials 
said they were able to make the cut because a rise in water 
levels has increased power generation at several major 
hydropower plants. At the Kulekhani Hydropower Project near 
Hetauda in Mahawanpur Dsitrict south of Kathmandu, power 
production increased by 38 percent, or 52MW, following 
continuous rainfall in the surrounding area. 
 
6. (U)  However, not all of the country benefited from the 
announced reduction.  The NEA said it will not cut 
load-shedding in the Morang-Sunsari region in the eastern 
Terai, a important industrial center.  Load-shedding will 
remain at eight hours daily in this region because it is 
dependent on power imported from Kataiya, India, and only one 
of the two import circuits damaged by the Koshi floods in 
August 2008 has been repaired.  The repaired circuit has a 
45MW capacity, while the one still under repair carries 30 MW. 
 
Bank Lending Growth Rate Slows 
------------------------------ 
 
7. (U)  The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) reported that the growth 
in commercial bank lending slowed during the first nine 
months of the current fiscal year, which began in July 2008, 
as compared to the same period last year.  Overall credit to 
the private sector expanded by 17.9 percent during this 
period.  During the same period last year, it grew by 19.9 
percent. 
 
8. (U)  Declines in the growth of loans to the construction 
and real estate sectors may indicate that the overheated 
housing market is being to cool.   According to the NRB, 
construction loans grew by 27.2 percent, while in the same 
 
KATHMANDU 00000473  002 OF 002 
 
 
period the previous year they grew by nearly 44 percent.  The 
central bank noted that credit growth in the real estate 
sector "also declined," but it did not provide figures. 
 
9. (U)  One of the few areas in which the growth accelerated 
is consumer loans.  During the review period, consumer loans, 
such as those for gold and silver and credit cards, grew by 
31.6 percent, as compared to 0.1 percent last year, according 
to the bank.  Observers said this dramatic growth suggests 
that remittances are now being used more for consumption than 
for productive investments. 
 
Declining Number of Workers Going Overseas 
------------------------------------------ 
 
10. (U)  The number of Nepali workers leaving for overseas 
jobs fell by 20.5 percent during the first 10 months of the 
current fiscal year, as compared to the same period last 
year, according to the Department of Foreign Employment 
(DoFE), Ministry of Labor and Transport Management.  The DoFE 
reported that 147,545 workers left the country during this 
period, while, during the same period the previous year, 
185,817 workers left. (Note: These figures do not include 
workers who left for jobs in India.  End note.) 
 
11. (U)  Between mid-April and mid-May, there were dramatic 
declines in the number of jobseekers leaving for work in 
three of the most popular labor destinations: Malaysia, the 
U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia.  According to the DoFE, only 824 
workers left for Malaysia during this period, as compared to 
4,181 last year. The number of workers leaving for the U.A.E. 
was 1,701 this year, down from 4,336 last year.  Saudi 
Arabia, the most popular destination for Nepali workers, 
absorbed 2,861 jobseekers, about 2,000 fewer than last year. 
 
Tourist Arrivals by Air Fall 
------------------------------ 
 
12. (U)  The Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) reported that tourist 
arrivals at Tribhuvan International Airport, the country's 
sole international airport, fell by 5 percent in May, 
compared to the same month last year.  According to the NTB, 
25,129 visitors arrived by air in May, 1,331 fewer than the 
previous year.  Air arrivals have fallen ins all but one of 
the first five months of 2009, as compared fort the same 
months last year.  (Note: In recent years, air arrivals have 
accounted for about 70 percent of all tourist arrivals.  End 
note.) 
 
13. (U)  The largest declines were in the numbers of tourists 
arriving from other South Asian countries.  Visitors arriving 
from India, which is, by far, the largest source of tourists, 
fell by 13.6 percent in May, as compared to last year.  The 
only country in the region to register growth was Sri Lanka, 
with visitors from that country increasing by nearly 20 
percent.  Arrivals from the United States and Canada also 
grew, as did those from the European market. 
 
Inflation Moderates Somewhat 
---------------------------- 
 
14. (U)  Consumer price inflation rose to 11.9 percent during 
the first nine months of the current fiscal year, as compared 
to 8.9 percent during the same period the previous year, 
according to the NRB.  The current year-on-year inflation 
rate is 1.2 percent less than the rate the central bank 
reported for the first eight months of the fiscal year. 
 
15. (U)  Inflation during this period was driven mainly by 
the rise in the price of food and beverages, which overall 
increased by 14.8 percent, as compared to 12.6 percent last 
year.  Within this group, the price of sugar and sugar 
products increased the most, rising by 50.5 percent.  During 
the same period last year, the price of these products fell 
3.8 percent.  The price of meat, fish and eggs and the 
vegetable and fruits sub-groups were also up sharply, 
increasing by 28.2 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively. 
 
 
POWELL