VZCZCXRO8377
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW
DE RUEHBUL #1398/01 1531319
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 021319Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9217
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 0089

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001398 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN START TWO WEEKS AWAY; KARZAI IN 
DRIVER'S SEAT 
 
REF: KABUL 1296 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY.  The presidential election season 
officially starts June 16, but the major candidates are 
already in full swing.  President Karzai will begin the 
campaign with a significant head start, having consolidated 
support from a number of powerful factional leaders.  The 
other major candidates ) former Foreign Minister Abdullah 
Abdullah, former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani, and Lower 
House Deputy Speaker Mirwais Yaseni ) are counting on a 
last-minute consolidation of opposition campaigns to coalesce 
under their banner ) a seemingly unlikely scenario, for now. 
 Election officials will scrub a handful of candidates after 
the compliant period ends June 8, though we expect around 40 
candidates to appear on the final list.  Few candidates 
outside of the top four appear to have set up a professional 
campaign infrastructure.  End Summary. 
 
Karzai Continues to Build Momentum 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Karzai scored major endorsements last week from the 
majority-Uzbek Junbesh-e-Milli and majority-Hazara 
Wahdat-e-Mardum parties.  Junbesh, founded by former warlord 
Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, and Wahdat, led by influential 
leader Haji Mohammed Mohaqqeq, had agreed earlier this year 
to endorse a joint candidate (reftel).  In a sign of Karzai's 
growing confidence, the Junbesh/Wahdat alliance had 
originally demanded five Cabinet positions each for their 
endorsements.  But Karzai refused to commit to such a high 
price and held out, knowing the ethnic leaders were unlikely 
to join with United Front candidate Abdullah, even though 
Abdullah had offered the two parties a wide range of 
enticements for their support.  In the end, sources close to 
both parties suggest that Karzai's final offer was much 
lower.  An aide to Mohaqqeq said Wahdat leaders believed they 
and Junbesh would each receive three smaller ministries in 
the new government, though Karzai apparently held to his 
refusal to put any agreements in writing.  Junbesh Deputy 
Faizullah Zaki told PolOff party leaders had also asked for 
Karzai's commitment to pursue greater governance reforms in 
his second term, though again, did not secure any written 
commitment from Karzai. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  Karzai now has support from most of the country's 
main regional, ethnic, and political party leaders.  He has 
the support of the only major Uzbek political party, both 
factions of the largest Hazara party (led by Mohaqqeq and 2nd 
VP Khalili), and prominent individuals from the 
Tajik-dominated Jamiat-e-Islami/United Front group, including 
1st VP nominee Marshall Fahim, Herat strongman Ismail Khan, 
and Balkh Gov. Atta.  Major Pashtun tribal leaders are 
uniformly in his camp, as are Pashtun-majority political 
parties (and their leaders) such as Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan 
(Party Chairman Abdul Hadi Arghandewal), Afghan Millat 
(former Finance Minister Anwarulhaq Ahadi), Mahaz-e-Milli 
(Sufi leader Pir Gailani), and Tanzim-e-Dawat-e-Islami 
(former warlord and current MP Abdul Rassoul Sayyaf). 
Younger democratic parties have either endorsed Karzai (such 
as the Republican Party) or remained silent. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Karzai also enjoys a head start to the campaign 
season.  Several opposition camps allege that election 
officials and government representatives are taking a hard 
line against activities by opposition candidates that may 
jump the gun on the June 16 official start of the campaign. 
Supporters of Ashraf Ghani say local police and security 
officials tore down their campaign posters in Takhar, while 
leaving Karzai materials untouched.  Mirwais Yaseni told 
PolOff he has received warnings not to publicize the openings 
of his regional campaign offices until after June 16. 
Meanwhile, opposition candidates complain Karzai regularly 
engages in campaign activities disguised as part of his 
official duties, such as hosting tribal elders at the Palace, 
while provincial and district government officials organize 
pro-Karzai events. 
 
Abdullah Campaign Picks Up Minor Endorsements 
---------- 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Abdullah staffers admit the Junbesh/Wahdat loss is 
a major blow to the campaign's strategy to consolidate ethnic 
northern votes.  One Abdullah aide spun the development as a 
decision made by party leaders without the permission of the 
parties' rank-and-file supporters, who remain committed to 
the Abdullah campaign.  Most Junbesh and Wahdat members who 
have spoken to the Embassy are not excited about the Karzai 
endorsement, but understand their leaders' decision to bring 
the parties into government, rather than remain in opposition 
for another five years.  Abdullah has only picked up 
 
KABUL 00001398  002 OF 002 
 
 
endorsements from minor parties in the United Front 
coalition, such as Eqtadar-e-Milli (led by UF spokesman 
Sancharaki). 
 
Ghani Campaign Sets Up Headquarters 
---------- 
 
¶6. (SBU)  PolOff visited the newly opened Ghani campaign 
headquarters on May 31 to discuss the state of the election 
with top Ghani staffers.  The busy office was full of 
petitioners promising support for the campaign in exchange 
for Ghani's attention to their grievances with the 
government.  Volunteer staff coordinated plans to open 
offices in other provinces once the campaign season started. 
Top aide Sabor Formuli said financial constraints meant that 
many offices would be co-located in supporters' private 
residences.  Formuli acknowledged the campaign had yet to 
attract support from any other major politicians, but claimed 
17 minor presidential candidates had committed to endorsing 
Ghani after the campaign started.  Forumli also pointed to a 
map of Afghanistan with several hundred red pins and two 
dozen green pins scattered around various provinces.  Formuli 
said the red pins represented religious, tribal, and 
political groups that had promised their support to the 
campaign.  The green pins represented groups that campaign 
staff were "100 percent sure" had committed to the campaign. 
 
Minor Candidates a Non-Factor 
----------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Few minor candidates appear inclined to set up a 
national campaign infrastructure, which would be consistent 
with the belief of many Afghans that most candidates are 
running in order to raise their profiles in hopes of being 
offered a position in the next government.  Even sitting 
members of Parliament Shahla Atta, Ramazan Bashardost, Abdul 
Qader Imami Ghori, and Mullah Salaam Raketi have not visibly 
expanded their campaign effort beyond close supporters and 
family members.  Still, Atta renounced her US citizenship in 
late May in response to an anonymous complaint filed with the 
Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), and like most other 
candidates insists she is in the race until the end. 
Mohammed Daud Miraki, the last remaining known US citizen in 
the presidential contest, dropped out on June 1, citing a 
"lack of transparency" in the election process.  An ECC 
complaint citing his foreign citizenship may have also 
compelled Miraki to leave the race.  The ECC said it would 
accept renunciations of foreign citizenship dated before June 
¶8.  Bashardost and another candidate, Sayed Jalal Karim, have 
proven most adept at raising their profiles with Afghan media 
through their endless willingess to provide soundbites and 
grant interviews. 
 
Campaigns Compete For Jalali Supporters 
---------- 
 
¶8. (SBU)  Representatives from the top four campaigns have 
claimed supporters of former candidate Ali Ahmad Jalali have 
joined their team.  However, a top Jalali aide said that 
while individual supporters have endorsed other candidates, 
the bulk of Jalali's former team is waiting for a signal form 
Jalali on which way to go.  Jalali campaign manager and Lower 
House MP Gen. Helaludin Helal said he and other former 
campaign aides believed Jalali would soon return to 
Afghanistan with a clear message on his preference in the 
election.  Helal thought Jalali would coordinate with former 
US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and make a joint announcement 
in mid-June. 
EIKENBERRY