VZCZCXRO1265
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1340/01 1681414
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 171414Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3299
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0512
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0694
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 5112
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 1858
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 7460
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6409
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 4043
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 9649

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001340 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PREF PHUM EAID PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S JUNE 17 VISIT TO SWABI IDP SITE 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: The Ambassador, on June 17, visited Swabi 
school where community volunteers support displaced families 
from Swat and Buner.  The GOP continues registration 
verification of families displaced by the conflict in the 
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the Northwest 
Frontier Province (NWFP) and estimates that the final tally 
of individuals currently displaced will reach two million. 
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees will present in 
Washington a revised UNHCR internal planning document and 
funding needs estimate based on an increase in anticipated 
IDPs from 1.5 million (as cited in the UN's May 2009 Pakistan 
Humanitarian Response Plan) to 2.5 million comprised of the 
aforementioned two million, an estimated 300,000 persons 
displaced in Punjab and Sindh, and an additional 200,000 
persons expected to flee any security operations in 
Waziristan.  End Summary 
 
AMBASSADOR'S VISIT TO DISPLACED AT A SWABI SCHOOL 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2. (U) On June 17, the Ambassador visited Anbar Elementary 
College where approximately 2,500 displaced individuals from 
Swat and Buner districts currently reside.  The school-based 
camp in Swabi District is managed by a local foundation 
established by community members and local government 
officials.  Displaced persons are receiving support primarily 
from the foundation, as well as from the UN Children's Fund 
(UNICEF), an international NGO and local community members. 
(The USG has provided a total of approximately $6.5 million 
to UNICEF for water, sanitation and nutrition assistance for 
the displaced.) The volunteer support provided at the Anbar 
school is a model for community assistance to displaced 
families.  During the visit, the Ambassador announced a USG 
gift of notebooks, colored pencils, pencils and sharpeners 
for displaced children at the school, and mechanical 
flashlights for the families. 
 
REVISED UNHCR PLANNING 
---------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) During his visit to Washington, the UN High 
Commissioner for Refugees will present a revised internal 
planning document for Pakistan.  While this is not/not a 
revised appeal, it does present revised IDP planning figures 
and outlines additional funding needs of $36 million 
(required for the rest of the calendar year) above that in 
UNHCR's previous submission to the UN's revised 2009 Pakistan 
Humanitarian Response Plan (PHRP).  The document outlines 
that: 
 
 - Based on ongoing registration verification, it is 
estimated that 2 million persons are displaced in FATA and 
NWFP; 
 - Another 300,000 have been registered in areas outside of 
NWFP, mainly in Sindh and Punjab provinces; 
 - With the expected military operations in Waziristan, some 
200,000 persons are expected to be displaced. 
 
Instead of the 1.5 million IDP planning figure in the PHRP, 
UNHCR is now using a figure of 2.5 million. 
 
NADRA VERIFICATIONS 
------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Pakistan's National Database and Registration 
Authority (NADRA), as of June 16, had reviewed the cases of 
521,711 out of 558,125 registered families.  Of those 
521,711, there are 268,672 families that have been verified 
as eligible IDPs.  Thus, the number of verified, registered 
displaced is now approximately 1.9 million individuals, and 
it is assumed that this number will rise to approximately 2 
million when pending cases are reviewed.  (The 2 million 
number is the source of the UNHCR estimates in para 3.) 
 
GOP CASH DISBURSEMENTS 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) On June 16, GOP Special Support Group head Lt. 
General (ret) Nadeem told UN agencies that 15,887 families 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001340  002 OF 003 
 
 
have received debit cards for 25,000 rupees (approximately 
$310). From these cards, approximately 85 million rupees 
(approximately $1.05 million) have been withdrawn from banks. 
 The recipients of the cards are largely from Jalozai camp. 
 
POTENTIAL UNHCR ROLE IN RETURN 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (U) As a result of UN discussions held on June 16 with 
Lt. General (ret) Nadeem, it appears that the UNHCR will 
share the UN co-lead with UNDP on coordinating with the 
government on the return home of the displaced.  Government 
planning for the return of the IDPs is nascent, however. 
 
CONDITIONS FOR RETURN 
--------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In a donor meeting on June 17, the UN Office for the 
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) indicated its 
support for IDP returns but emphasized that conditions must 
permit those returns to be durable.  The current security 
situation in Buner, Swat, and Lower Dir does not currently 
allow for sustainable returns.  In discussions on June 16 
with OCHA, Lt. General (ret.) Nadeem said that returns will 
not be forced.  OCHA told Nadeem that there must be more 
security and a pre-assessment conducted by the UN prior to 
the UN's support of a returns operation.  When OCHA 
questioned Nadeem regarding the June 20 date on which he 
previously said that returns would begin, Nadeem indicated 
that June 20 will just be the start of getting the 
bureaucracy in place to support the initiation of a returns 
operation.  Lt. General Nadeem listed six pre-conditions for 
returns including clearing the area of improvised explosive 
devices (IEDs) and unexploded ordnance (UXO), clearing of 
roads and debris, fully operational civil administration and 
law enforcement, active markets, restoration of services and 
basic infrastructure, and mandated Army presence until there 
is a complete return of stability. 
 
HUMANITARIAN CONDITIONS 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) The U.K. Department for International Development 
(DFiD) has provided $10.5 million to six UN clusters for 
projects listed in the UN Pakistan Humanitarian Response 
Plan.  DFiD has prioritized early recovery, food, health, 
protection, shelter, and water, sanitation and hygiene 
(WASH).  The UN has decided to allocate $1.25 million to 
early recovery, $1.5 million to food, $3.25 million to 
health, $1 million to protection, $1.5 million to shelter, 
and $2 million to WASH.  June 15 and 16 cluster meetings were 
dominated by discussion of how to distribute the DFiD funding 
among cluster members, as the decisions must be submitted to 
OCHA on June 17. 
 
FOOD AND NUTRITION 
------------------ 
 
¶9.  (U) On June 15, the International Committee of the Red 
Cross (ICRC) distributed food rations to 1,000 households in 
Mingora, Swat District. ICRC plans to complete approximately 
5,000 food ration distributions by the end of the week in 
Mingora and surrounding villages.  In addition, ICRC noted 
unconfirmed reports of high malnutrition rates in villages 
outside of Mingora. 
 
¶10.  (U) The UN Food Security cluster has requested support 
from the UN WASH cluster to rehabilitate contaminated wells 
supplying water to grain mills in Peshawar.  Currently, the 
UN World Food Program (WFP) is using mills in Lahore and 
Rawalpindi to produce wheat flour but noted difficulty in 
keeping up with humanitarian requirements without additional 
milling capacity.  Regular WFP food distributions are ongoing. 
 
LOGISTICS AND RELIEF COMMODITIES 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) On June 16, the UN Logistics cluster coordinator 
gave an update on the status of the logistics base at Pir 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001340  003 OF 003 
 
 
Pai, near Nowshera town.  The coordinator noted that the 
34-acre base includes space for sixteen 10 X 40 meter storage 
halls (Wiik halls), as well as space currently used to store 
supplies on pallets under tarpaulins.  The Wiik halls arrived 
in Karachi on June 15, and the cluster expects that the halls 
will clear customs and arrive in Pir Pai in approximately 4 
to 5 days.  Approximately 250 people are working daily at the 
base which can handle between 2,000 and 2,500 MT throughput 
of food and relief commodities each day. 
 
¶12.  (U) USAID's Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance is 
providing $1.5 million to WFP, the lead organization for the 
logistics cluster, for logistics augmentation to support 
activities such as the establishment of the logistics base at 
Pir Pai and logistics contingency planning to respond to 
other potential displacement, including from North and South 
Waziristan Agencies. 
 
POLITICAL UPDATE 
---------------- 
 
¶13. (U) As Pakistani political leaders shifted their focus 
south of Malakand Division toward the widely anticipated 
military offensive in the Waziristans, Federal Minister for 
Information and Broadcasting Qamar Zaman Kaira said that most 
of Swat Valley had been cleared and IDPs could soon return to 
their homes.  The Army's top spokesman claimed that the 
government had lifted the curfew in the central Swat towns of 
Kalam and Bahrain, completely secured Peochar Valley, and 
fully restored civil administration and police services in 
Shangla District.  Pakistan People's Party (PPP) 
representatives from Malakand Division again announced their 
demand that the federal government establish a central 
committee, led by a PPP National Assembly member (Afsarul 
Mulk), to oversee and coordinate all relief activities for 
IDPs. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Comment: Pakistani officials routinely make 
statements that areas have been cleared and that families 
should return home.  In the end, families are generally 
making their own decisions.  We have no evidence of Pakistani 
government intention to forcibly return IDPs.  End comment. 
PATTERSON