VZCZCXRO0626
RR RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1328/01 1680641
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170641Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3281
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0506
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0683
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 5108
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 7456
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 6403
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 1854
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 001328 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENRG EFIN PK
SUBJ:  PESHAWAR:  NWFP - CAN SWAT'S CROPS BE SAVED? 
 
Summary 
- - - - 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Embassy Islamabad is transmitting this cable for Consulate 
Peshawar. 
¶2.  (SBU) Pakistan will suffer a 35 percent crop loss in the 
Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) this year, and up to a 70 percent 
crop loss in the conflict-hit areas of Malakand Division, according 
to the NWFP provincial government and local economists.  These 
Consulate contacts conclude that it is too late to save this year's 
wheat crop in places like Swat.  But they also tell us if the 
government secures the return of some 226,000 displaced farmers 
early in the monsoon season, beginning the first week of July, and 
implements rapid assistance targeted at these farmers, the 
agricultural base in the region can be saved.  End summary. 
35 Percent Crop Loss in Malakand Division 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Almost half of the population in the conflict-hit areas of 
Malakand Division of the NWFP depend on agriculture to survive and 
are at risk of losing their crops this year, according to NWFP 
Minister for Agriculture Arbab Mohammad Ayub Jan.  Out of a total 
population of four million in the five conflict-hit districts (Swat, 
Buner, Shangla, Lower Dir, and Malakand), 1.9 million belong to 
farming families and rely at least partially on agriculture for 
their livelihood.  More than 226,000 farmer families in these 
districts rely on staple food crops like wheat and rice, and largely 
on subsistence farming.  (Note:  About 95 percent of all farms in 
the NWFP are subsistence farms of less than 12.5 acres.)  A good 
portion of the rural landless population in these areas also 
maintains their livelihood by working as farm laborers.  Jan 
estimates crop losses resulting from no harvest at about 35 percent 
in the areas affected by the military operation and predicts that 
crop losses in Swat will likely be as high as 70 percent. 
¶4.  (SBU) Pakistan's wheat harvest is virtually completed this year, 
according to Jan, and unharvested wheat is likely now ruined and 
cannot be used for any purpose.  With an estimated 70 percent of 
Swat's population fleeing the military operation there, the 
remaining 30 percent could only salvage a portion of their 
neighbors' crops due to poor security and constant curfews. 
Farming in NWFP 
- - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Due to the great diversity in climate and soils, farmers 
in NWFP grow over 42 crops.  The major ones are wheat, barley, 
maize, sugarcane, tobacco, rape/mustard seed, groundnut, pulses, 
vegetables (onions, potatoes, cabbage) and fruits, according to Dr. 
Nasir Khan, Director of Institute of Management Studies (IMS), and 
former Chairman of the Economics Department University of Peshawar. 
These major crops account for nearly 90 percent of the total 
cultivated area.  Less than five percent of farms in the NWFP 
produce surplus food grains for sale in the open market.  The 
situation for corn is somewhat different, however, as it is grown 
for both on-farm and commercial use.  Record wheat and rice harvests 
this year will enable Pakistan to shift sufficient quantities of 
food grains into the NWFP to offset crop losses in the military 
operation zones.  (Note:  NWFP is a food-deficient province and 
traditionally relies on the Punjab to meet its staple food needs, 
particularly wheat and rice.)  The returning population's ability to 
offset crop losses will be severely challenged, however, as many 
people have lost their jobs, and those subsistence farmers who 
typically grow their own food but who have lost their crops will now 
be forced to enter into a depressed job market. 
Commercial Farming in NWFP 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (SBU) In NWFP, fruits and vegetables are largely grown for 
commercial sale, according to Dr. Khan.  Vegetables supplied from 
the troubled five districts to other parts of NWFP and to other 
provinces constitute 37 percent of the total vegetables grown in the 
province, while Swat produces 13 percent of Pakistan's vegetables. 
The production of orchard crops in Malakand, and to a lesser extent 
corn, is also intended for commercial sale.  Swat is renowned for 
its fruit orchards, hosting hundreds of commercial-sized orchards 
producing apples, peaches and plums, which play a critical role in 
sustaining the economic livelihood of the rural population.  Sixty 
percent of Pakistan's peaches come from Swat, 35 percent of its 
pears, and almost 20 percent of its apples and plums.  All of these 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001328  002 OF 002 
 
 
fruits are highly perishable.  Secretary General of Sarhad Chamber 
of Agriculture, Abdur Rahim Khan, estimates that $100 million worth 
of fruit in Malakand Division could be lost.  While this year's 
peach crop in Swat has mostly rotted, its plums, pears, onions, and 
tomatoes may be saved if farmers return to the fields in the next 
few weeks. 
Corn and Livestock in NWFP 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶7. (SBU) Corn crop losses in the military zones will also have a 
significant negative impact on Pakistan's total corn supply, as 
nearly one-third of the country's three million ton corn crop is 
grown in the NWFP.  As corn is mostly used to feed livestock such as 
cattle, sheep and goats, higher corn prices will have a 
disproportional impact on the poor, as more poor people own 
livestock than own land.  The NWFP Minister for Livestock and Dairy 
Development, Hidayatullah Khan, estimates livestock losses at about 
$110 million, and related losses, such as buildings and equipment, 
at an additional $114 million.  There are no reported outbreaks of 
major livestock diseases yet. 
Returning Before Monsoon 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
¶8. (SBU) Dr. Khan tells us if IDPs cannot return before the rains 
begin in July, it will have a significant negative impact on their 
ability to plant traditional monsoon season crops, such as rice, 
corn and vegetables, and will severely undermine longer-term food 
security in the region.  Monsoon rains begin from the first week of 
July and continue through mid-September.  The loss of this year's 
crop will mean no seed for next year's crop, as most farmers hold 
back a portion (5 percent) of the current crop for next year's 
planting.  If the government secures the return of the estimated 
226,000 displaced farmers early in the monsoon season and implements 
rapid assistance targeted at these farmers, the agricultural base in 
the region can be saved.  Special Support Group Lt. Colonel Shahid 
Waseem stated that the army could assist in the transportation and 
marketing of this year's crops. 
What Can the U.S. Do? 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
¶9. (SBU) The U.S. Department of Agriculture is actively considering 
two proposals that could significantly assist displaced farmers, 
along with their livestock, in the Malakand Division.  Under one 
proposal, India would ship 30,000 tons (worth USD 30 million) of 
animal feed to Mardan District of NWFP for direct distribution to 
displaced farmers from Malakand.  One side benefit of this proposal 
would be to accustom the GOP and Pakistani public to the transit of 
Indian goods through the primary shipping route that will be used 
under the recently signed Transit and Trade Agreement between India 
and Afghanistan.  Second, USDA proposes that the U.S. provide 
120,000 tons of corn to Pakistan, worth $100 million, which Pakistan 
may monetize to support agricultural reconstruction in Malakand 
Division under the "Food for Progress" program. 
 
PATTERSON