VZCZCXRO3248
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #1254/01 1591533
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 081533Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3135
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0454
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0594
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 5055
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 1799
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 7401
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 6344
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 9580
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 4023

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001254 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PGOV PINR PK PREF PREL PTER
SUBJECT: NWFP OFFICIALS PLANNING FOR RECONSTRUCTION OF SWAT 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.   Northwest Frontier Province Chief 
Secretary Javed Iqbal and Chief Economist Shakeel Qadir told 
DCM and AID Mission Director that they are already planning 
for the reconstruction of Swat and the greater Malakand 
division, once hostilities end.  Their concept includes an 
early recovery phase of about six months, in which basic 
services would be restored and critical repairs to buildings 
and infrastructure would be made.  The longer term 
reconstruction program would rebuild infrastructure, 
reorganize the civil administration to make it more 
responsive, and support economic development and growth.  On 
security, the NWFP government will rely on the army to retain 
some presence in Swat and Buner while the police force is 
reconstituted and additional police recruited and trained. 
DCM suggested the NWFP plan, once it is validated by the 
Asian Development Bank and World Bank, could be presented to 
the Friends of Democratic Pakistan ministers in September as 
a roadmap for international donor participation in the 
reconstruction effort.  End Summary. 
 
PLANNING FOR REHABILITATION AND RECONSTRUCTION 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2. (SBU) Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) Chief Secretary 
Javed Iqbal and Chief Economist Shakeel Qadir met DCM and AID 
Mission Director and team June 6 to discuss planning for 
reconstruction of Swat and the greater Malakand division, 
once hostilities end.  The NWFP Government is serious about 
taking the lead, rather than waiting for federal level 
officials, and has already begun putting together damage 
assessments.  They have good data on public sector 
infrastructure that was damaged or destroyed prior to March 
20, because of consistent reporting by District Commission 
Offices and other Provincial officials, and they have a full 
update for the Buner area.  They still need to get back into 
conflict areas in Swat once the fighting ends to update on 
additional needs caused by operations there since the end of 
March.  They do not have good visibility on damage to the 
private sector, including homes, small businesses, etc. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Both officials emphasized their intention to have 
reliable international institutions like the Asian 
Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank (WB) validate their 
damage estimates, either through a separate assessment, or by 
taking what the NWFP had done as a baseline and confirming 
that. They (and we) have been told that ADB plans to conduct 
its own assessment, and ADB is already organizing training 
sessions on how to do damage surveys and asking for focal 
points in the NWFP government. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Chief Economist Qadir said the rebuilding plan will 
consist of two phases:  early recovery and full 
reconstruction.  The early recovery phase should last about 
six months and will feature quick repair of government 
buildings (offices, schools, hospitals, etc) and 
infrastructure (temporary bridges, road repair), as well as 
restoration of basic services (power and water, as well as 
basic governance).  They already have action plans for all 
the sectors, and Qadir thought the Province would be able to 
fund most of these fixes.  The reconstruction phase is a 
longer-term undertaking which contemplates complete 
rebuilding of structures damaged beyond repair, new roads and 
bridges, rejuvenation of economic activity, renovation of 
private homes and businesses that were destroyed, and some 
new activities (like dams that could serve as new sources of 
electricity as well as revenue, an improved tourism industry, 
and cottage industries like ceramics and gemstones).  For 
this phase, the province will definitely need federal, and 
probably international, assistance. 
 
¶5. (SBU) DCM agreed that early recovery activities needed to 
begin immediately.  For the longer term reconstruction needs, 
he suggested that the Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FODP) 
group could serve as a forum for presentation of a 
comprehensive plan and a structured response by international 
donors.  The Chief Secretary was amenable to presenting the 
Province's program to the Islamabad-based representatives of 
FODP, with the possibility of putting this in front of the 
FODP Ministers in September. 
 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001254  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Separately, on June 8, DCM met with members of the 
FODP group, who agreed to use the group to support 
reconstruction in the Malakand division.  There will be a 
meeting soon to include the FODP group, NWFP officials, and 
the GoP's lead on IDPs, General Nadeem. 
 
POSSIBLE REORGANIZATION OF CIVIL ADMINISTRATION STRUCTURES 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Chief Secretary noted that civilian and military 
officials had met the day before (June 5) to discuss not only 
how to respond in immediate terms to the crisis of internally 
displaced persons (IDPs), but also how to restructure the 
civil administration in Malakand division to better meet the 
needs of the people at the local level.  The present system 
was too centralized, and was neither accessible enough nor 
flexible enough to garner the full support of the population. 
 He acknowledged, for example, that the local government's 
failure to deliver speedy justice was a problem that led to 
the expansion of the militants' influence over the past 
months.  The reorganization would include breaking Swat into 
seven subdivisions instead of the current two, expanding the 
number of police stations to 36 from the current nine, and 
several other revisions to Article 247 of the Constitution 
("Administration of Tribal Areas"), which he promised to 
detail at a later briefing.  When asked whether he expected 
opposition to this reorganization, the Chief Secretary said 
that if the new structures could quickly deliver what people 
wanted, he doubted if even an activist judiciary would be 
motivated to overturn the changes. 
 
A SOLUTION FOR LAW ENFORCEMENT 
------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Chief Secretary Iqbal agreed that providing security 
was essential if reconstruction was to be successful.  He 
acknowledged serious shortfalls in both the number and 
capabilities of the police force.  He said he had an 
agreement from General Kiyani (who attended the June 5 
meeting) to keep the military in Swat for between 12-24 
months.  In some areas, they would be visibly present, and in 
others, in the background.  But their presence should be 
enough to keep militants from returning, and would give the 
civilian administration time to rebuild the police force. 
Iqbal said he envisioned every one of the 27 new police 
stations in Swat being staffed by 100 police officers; to do 
that, the Province would have to recruit and train about 2500 
new officers.  Iqbal argued against a short-circuited 
training program, and advocated a full and thorough training 
regime to get it right from the beginning.  In the meantime, 
the Province might be able to bring some police from a number 
of other districts to fill the gap.  Iqbal noted that an 
expansion of the police force would require additional 
funding from the federal budget for salaries and benefits. 
 
 
AGGRESSIVE TIMETABLE FOR IDP RETURNS 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Both NWFP officials said they were planning to 
begin encouraging IDPs to return to Swat and Buner as the 
security situation improved.  They thought they could return 
up to 300,000 people to Mingora (Swat's main city) by June 
20, and another tranche by the end of the month.  They fully 
understood that the government offer of 25,000 rupees (about 
$315) per family needed to be honored or people would refuse 
to return home.  They asserted that funding is available and 
they were optimistic that NADRA would be ready to begin 
disbursing the funds the week of June 8. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Comment.  The NWFP government appears to be 
better organized and is doing more thorough planning than any 
other GoP entity.  We plan to vigorously support their 
efforts by offering additional planning resources, aligning 
some of our reconstruction funding along their programmatic 
lines, and helping facilitate the provision of additional 
resources from the international donor community through the 
Friends of Democratic Pakistan and other groups.  Although 
Ambassador Holbrooke heard a similar assertion from Minister 
of State for Economy Hina Rabbani Khar on June 5, we are not 
 
ISLAMABAD 00001254  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
convinced that the household payments to IDPs can begin on 
June 8, as NADRA has not yet developed a comprehensive list 
of recipients. End Comment. 
PATTERSON