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DE RUEHHE #0220/01 1611417
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 101417Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5009
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000220 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV FI
SUBJECT: FINLAND: LEFT LOSES, POPULISTS GAIN IN 
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: 08 HELSINKI 516 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. With losses for the political left 
and wins for fringe parties, the Finnish European 
Parliament elections echoed results across the EU. The 
populist and Euro-skeptic True Finns gained their first 
parliamentary seat, and their leader received the most 
votes of any candidate.  The Greens were the only 
member of the four-party governing coalition to gain a 
seat.  The two main coalition members, National 
Coalition Party (NCP) and Center Party, each lost one 
seat.  The NCP leadership can comfort itself in the 
knowledge the NCP remains the most popular party in 
Finland.  The Center Party's poor showing in the last 
few election cycles means party head Prime Minister 
Vanhanen might face a leadership challenge in the next 
party congress.  The Social Democrats and Left 
Alliance, apparently struggling to find a message a new 
generation of leadership, each lost a seat. Overall, 
the results offer no dramatic surprises and generally 
follow trends seen across the last few election cycles. 
As a result, the dynamics within the governing 
coalition appear unlikely to change significantly. 
End Summary. 
 
Overview 
-------- 
 
2 (SBU) Finns turned out in low numbers for the latest 
European Parliament (EP) elections, dropping to 40.2 
percent from 2004's 41.1 percent. Similar to last 
year's municipal elections (REF), the parties ran 
campaigns primarily on national domestic issues, not 
issues related to the Eropean Union; therefore, one 
might take election esults as an "official poll" of 
party standing to years before the next national 
parliamentary eections.  Thse results for Finland's 
13 seats, ncluding percentage of overall votes, are as 
folows: 
 
Governing Coalition: 
National Coalition Prty (NCP) - Lost 1, retaine 3 
(23.2 percent) 
Center Party (CP) - Lost 1, retained 3 (19 percent) 
Green Party - Gained a second seat (12.4 percent) 
Swedish People's Party (SPP) - Retained its single seat 
(6.1 percent) 
 
Opposition: 
Social Democratic Party (SDP) - Lost 1, retained 2 
(17.5 percent) 
Left Alliance - Lost their single seat (5.9 percent) 
True Finns/Christian Democrats - Gained two seats, one 
for each party (14 percent) 
 
Winners: True Finns and Greens 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The populist and Euro-skeptic True Finns added 
to their significant gains in last year's municipal 
elections by taking their first seat in the EP.  Party 
leader Timo Soini was the top vote getter of the entire 
election (130,000).  Soini received those votes despite 
declaring that he would not sit for a full term and 
would return to run in the next Finnish parliamentary 
elections in 2011.  In meetings with Embassy staff, 
Finnish analysts and journalists attributed the TF's 
win to two things: the strength of Soini's personality, 
and the fact that the TF offered the only choice for 
Euro-skeptic voters.  (NOTE: The Christian Democrats 
(CD) and TF both benefited from their temporary 
alliance (for the sole purpose of the EP elections), as 
separately neither might have attained a seat, but the 
CDs likely received the greater benefit from Soini's 
popularity. END NOTE.) 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Greens were the only member of the four- 
party governing coalition to boast any gain.  According 
to analysts, the Greens benefitted from the perceived 
strength of their slate of candidates, and the party's 
transnational, social-justice-oriented platform 
generally appeals to the pro-EU voters. 
 
Losers: NCP, Center, the political left 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Though the two largest members of the 
governing coalition - NCP and Center - each lost one 
seat, the NCP's loss carries less of a sting.  The 
center-right NCP has been leading public opinion polls 
for months, and some pre-election polling hinted at a 
 
HELSINKI 00000220  002 OF 002 
 
 
possible fourth seat for the NCP; even with the loss of 
one seat the NCP remains the most popular party in 
Finland.  On the other hand, the CP continued its poor 
showings over the last several elections.  Analysts 
predicted that a significant CP loss would 
significantly increase the chance that the CP would 
remove Prime Minister Vanhanen's as leader in next 
year's party congress.  Remaining on par with NCP may 
not constitute such a serious loss, but the strength of 
Vanhanen's position remains uncertain. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The parties of the left were by far the bigger 
losers, as the SDP fell farther behind its main 
competitors, NCP and CP, and the Left Alliance lost its 
only seat.  Analysts pointed to both parties' 
difficulty finding a message that resonates with voters 
(even in an economic downturn) and fielding a younger 
generation of leaders.  Certainly, the SDP's two 
successful candidates are atypical for the party: Mitro 
Repo (a defrocked Orthodox priest) ran under the SDP 
banner but is not a member, and Liisa Jaakonsaari is 
publicly pro-NATO. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) With losses for the political left and wins 
for fringe parties, the Finnish elections echoed 
results across the EU. The results offer no dramatic 
surprises and generally follow trends seen across the 
last few election cycles.  As a result, the dynamics 
within the governing coalition appear unlikely to 
change significantly as a result of these elections. 
 
BUTLER