VZCZCXRO4011
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0479/01 1600858
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 090858Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4588
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 2308
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 2882
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 3001
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2264
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2631
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3049
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5490
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2173
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RUZEHAA/CDR USEUCOM INTEL VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000479 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. WALCH 
AF/EPS FOR ANN BREITER 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR L.DOBBINS AND J. HARMON 
TREASURY FOR D. PETERS 
COMMERCE FOR ROBERT TELCHIN 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO N. LUSANE AND T. DAGNE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ECON PGOV XA ZI
SUBJECT: ZIM AG MINISTER OVERESTIMATES AGRICULTURAL 
PRODUCTION 
 
REF: HARARE 456 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) In a meeting with CODEL Payne and Ambassador McGee 
on May 30, Minister of Agriculture Joseph Made (ZANU-PF) 
estimated the maize shortfall and level of food insecurity in 
2009/10.  He conceded the outlook was poor for the winter 
wheat crop, and made a pitch for credit facilities for 
smallholders and for recapitalization of the domstic 
fertilizer industry. USDA's latest production figures for 
Zimbabwe are well below Made's. Until the new government 
addresses the delicate issue of reviving commercial 
agriculture regardless of the race of the commercial farmer, 
food security will remain precarious and highly weather 
dependent, and the agricultural sector will continue to drain 
rather than fill ZimbQwe's current account. END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Good Rains, Yet Maize Shortfall Once Again 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In a meeting with CODEL Payne and Ambassador McGee 
at the Ministry of Agriculture on May 30, Minister Joseph 
Made (ZANU-PF), together with four other Ministry officials, 
addressed a range of issues affecting agricultural 
production.  Made said this year's summer rains had been 
good, but there would still be a shortfall in maize for human 
consumption of 600,000-700,000 MT.  He opined that food 
availability at the household level would be "reasonable" 
until November or December 2009. 
 
---------------------------- 
Credit Crunch Stymies Sector 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Made conceded that Zimbabwe was behind schedule in 
planting the winter wheat crop.  He said lack of credit had 
prevented farmers from getting fertilizer and purchasing 
seed.  Adequate seed had been available, he maintained, but 
at prohibitive prices. Looking toward the next summer maize 
crop, Made estimated that Zimbabwe's smallholders would 
produce 40-45 percent of the crop, but 300,000 of the 960,000 
farming households would not have adequate inputs to plant 
maize.  The Minister made the case that if more credit were 
available to small and medium-sized farmers, food security 
would improve.  Specifically, he asked for more food-for-work 
programs rather than direct food assistance. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) On fertilizer, Made reported that the domestic 
fertilizer industry could produce half to two-thirds of the 
nation's requirement if additional credit were made available 
to repair or replace machinery that is now 40 to 50 years 
old.  Made said that if fertilizer plants were recapitalized, 
Zimbabwe could produce its entire annual requirement of 600 
MT fertilizer domestically. 
 
-------------------- 
USDA Crop Assessment 
-------------------- 
Q-------------------- 
 
HARARE 00000479  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Made's estimates of the 2008/09 maize crop are--no 
surprise--on the high side.  The government's Agricultural 
Technical and Extension Services agency (AGRITEX) estimated 
that 1,521,000 ha of maize were planted at a yield of 0.82 
MT/ha (three times higher yield than its yield estimate in 
2007/2008), for a total crop of over 1.2 million MT.  USDA's 
2009 Zimbabwe Crop Assessment, which utilizes satellite 
imagery and field work, suggests that 1,144,000 ha were 
planted and yield was 0.44 tons/ha for a total crop of about 
a half million metric tons.  The USDA report, released on 
June 2, took into account the acute shortages of seed, 
fertilizer and fuel, along with late planting. (NOTE: For 
comparison sake, in the 1990s, commercial farmers strove to 
belong to the celebrated and now defunct "Ten Tonne Club" of 
maize farmers who grew 10 MT/ha.  END NOTE.)  Additionally, 
Made's assertion of "reasonable" food availability until 
November or December is not applicable to the population as a 
whole; there are pockets of vulnerability and some households 
will require food assistance as early as three months from 
now, with the numbers increasing thereafter.  On winter wheat 
estimates, the Ministry of Agriculture revealed at a 
technical meeting on June 4 that only 4,900 ha of wheat had 
been planted to date.  Wheat planting should have come to an 
end by May 10 for best yields. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶6.  (SBU) The meeting with Made was cordial.  He accompanied 
the delegation and Ambassador McGee to the State House 
meeting with President Mugabe (reftel).  He chatted 
nostalgically with econoff about his years of study at the 
University of Wisconsin, and re-appeared the next day on a 
Sunday afternoon to bid the CODEL farewell at the airport. 
As warm and welcoming as he was, however, on agricultural 
production and the way forward with agriculture his head is 
still in the sand.  Credit facilities for smallholder growers 
certainly have the potential to improve production, and there 
is no doubt that Zimbabwe's fertilizer companies are 
desperate for re-capitalization.  But the elephant in the 
room is the challenge of reviving high-output, 
surplus-generating commercial agriculture by farmers of any 
race.  Until the inclusive government addresses this 
admittedly delicate issue, food security will remain 
precarious and highly weather dependent, and the agricultural 
sector will continue to drain rather than fill Zimbabwe's 
current account. END COMMENT. 
 
¶7.  (U) NOTE:  This cable has not been cleared by Congressman 
Payne.  END NOTE. 
 
MCGEE