VZCZCXRO3342
RR RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDBU #0792/01 1810906
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300906Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0483
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0168
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 1034

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000792 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL SENV SOCI TI
SUBJECT: HEAVY RAIN AND MUDFLOWS THREATEN RURAL LIVELIHOODS, TAJIK 
ECONOMY 
 
REF: (A) DUSHANBE 774, (B) DUSHANBE 620 
 
DUSHANBE 00000792  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Heavy rainfall in recent months has left several 
communities in Tajikistan under water or mud.  Districts in 
Khatlon province south of Dushanbe have been hardest hit.  The 
situation will have several short-term effects on health and 
local hygiene.  Damage to crops and livestock poses long-term 
economic risk for the country, already struggling in the ongoing 
economic crisis.  Though the government and international aid 
community have begun to respond, a lack of credible and 
consistent data makes it difficult to discern the true extent of 
the damage.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
HEAVY RAINS CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) Spring is traditionally rainy in Tajikistan, but 2009 has 
seen unusually heavy rain much later in the year than normal. 
Heavy rainfall in April and May caused damage in 14 of 23 
districts in Khatlon province, and 12 of 13 districts in the 
Region of Republican Subordination (RRS), including Dushanbe. 
In Khatlon, Khuroson, Panj, and Kulob districts were 
particularly affected.  In the RRS, Tursunzoda, Hissor, 
Tavildara, and Jirgatol districts fared worst.  Most of the 
damage was the result of floods, mudflows, and landslides. 
 
 
 
DISLOCATIONS AND PUBLIC HEALTH CONCERNS 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) Excessive rains have taken a serious toll on local 
livelihoods.  A Disaster Management Partnership in Tajikistan - 
Rapid Emergency Assessment and Coordination Team (REACT) report 
estimates 12,000 people have been directly affected.  Twenty-six 
weather-related deaths have been reported; additionally, 439 
families have been forced to relocate, 13 hospitals have been 
damaged, and 49 schools have been left inoperable. 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) The dislocations are giving rise to public health 
concerns.  While many of those affected are hosted by relatives, 
in some communities, the national, provincial, or local 
governments have set up tent camps.  There have been reports of 
shortages of food and potable water.  In addition, several camps 
are located in malaria-prone areas.  Residents and the local aid 
community are calling for mosquito nets, food supplies, 
children's clothing, and medicine. 
 
 
 
LONG-TERM EFFECTS ON AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) Tajikistan's economy relies heavily on agriculture, and 
this year's floods and mudflows coincided with the most critical 
planting season for many crops.  A Ministry of Agriculture 
official estimated that the agrarian sector sustained 
approximately $10 million in damage, though other reports put 
the figure as high as $20 million.  Agriculture is particularly 
important in Khatlon province, where the government estimates 
heavy rainfall damaged 40,000 hectares of cultivated land. 
Cotton, the chief crop in Khatlon, suffered the heaviest damage 
(22,000 hectares).  Additional losses were sustained in areas 
under cultivation in grain (8,000 hectares) and potatoes and 
other vegetables (960 hectares). 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Livestock has also suffered.  An estimated 3,000 animals 
have perished in flooding and mudflows.  Additional damage to 
irrigation systems, food storage facilities, and food processing 
facilities suggests that the effects of the recent storms may 
persist through the summer and autumn harvest season.  Much of 
Tajikistan's population is already food insecure due to 
declining remittances as a result of the world financial crisis 
(ref A), and there are concerns that this year's natural 
disasters and failed harvests may increase the suffering of the 
most vulnerable. 
 
 
 
THINGS GET BIBLICAL... 
 
 
 
DUSHANBE 00000792  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) A recent locust infestation is further damaging 
Tajikistan's agriculture, and is also taking the harshest toll 
in Khatlon.  So far, 55,000 hectares of farmland across 
Tajikistan have been affected in 2009, 41,000 of them in 
Khatlon.  A 2008 locust infestation destroyed 114,000 hectares 
across the country. 
 
 
 
RESPONSE 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) On May 15, the Government of Tajikistan issued an appeal 
for aid to the international community.  It noted a shortage of 
building materials, fuel, food, medicines, tents, and 
generators.  The government estimated the collective damage from 
the storms at $100 million.  The government sent round-the-clock 
medical teams to many of the tent camps, and delivered food 
rations to some displaced families and plans to provide 
dislocated families one-tenth of a hectare of new land for home 
reconstruction.  The Khatlon provincial government helped by 
allocating one-time cash payments of between US $110 and $330 to 
affected households, depending on the level of damage sustained. 
 The UN, Red Cross/Red Crescent, and NGOs have facilitated many 
of the government's aid efforts.  Despite these efforts, 
however, there continue to be complaints that the government's 
response has been both too weak and too slow. 
 
 
 
¶9. (U) Post responded quickly to the situation.  The Ambassador 
declared a state of disaster on 22 May and requested $50,000 in 
USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) funds for the 
purchase of hygiene kits and other necessary supplies (ref B). 
In addition, a State Department-funded program that prepositions 
humanitarian goods was able to respond by providing tents and 
over 400 beds.  These goods were valued at over $200,000. 
 
 
 
¶10. (U) Comment: Although obtaining accurate damage assessments 
has been a challenge, it is clear that the recent round of 
natural disasters struck Tajikistan at a particularly bad time. 
The global recession is increasingly being felt here, with 
remittances from Tajiks working abroad down 40% compared to last 
year.  The loss of this crucial lifeline for many Tajiks has 
increased their vulnerability to other shocks.  The crucial 
issue in the months to come will be the success of the harvests. 
 If yields are low, many rural Tajiks may not have the income to 
provide for themselves through the coming winter.  A return of 
U.S. food aid to Tajikistan would help stave off the most severe 
food insecurity and help communities to recover from two 
successive years of emergencies. 
 
End comment. 
JACOBSON