VZCZCXRO5925
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHDL #0236 1731618
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221618Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0030
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST 1014

UNCLAS DUBLIN 000236 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN EI
SUBJECT: GUARANTEES SET STAGE FOR SECOND IRISH REFERENDUM 
ON LISBON TREATY IN OCTOBER 
 
REF: A. DUBLIN 220 
     ¶B. DUBLIN 30 
     ¶C. 08 DUBLIN 334 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) During the June 18-19 European Council meeting, the 
Irish government received guarantees on a number of specific 
issue, providing it with the justification to proceed with a 
re-run of the Lisbon Treaty referendum -- most  likely on 
October 2 ,2009.  All major political parties are expected to 
back a "Yes" vote, while the most visible "No" campaigners in 
2008 -- Declan Ganley's Libertas organization and Sinn Fein 
-- faltered in the local and European Parliament elections on 
June 5 and are not expected to be strong campaigners in 
October.  Indications are positive that the Irish electorate 
will approve the Lisbon Treaty the second time around. 
Nonetheless, complacency of "Yes" supporters has been singled 
out as a leading cause of the defeat of the Treaty in June 
¶2008.  The "Yes" campaign -- and especially the major 
political parties -- will have to guard carefully to ensure 
this doesn't happen again.  End Summary. 
 
EU Council Provides Guarantees to Ireland 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) In advance of the June 18-19 EU summit, Taoiseach 
Brian Cowen sent a letter to all EU member states expressing 
the position that without a series of guarantees that had 
been promised Ireland by the European Council following the 
Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty in June 2008 (Ref B), he 
would find it difficult to authorize a second vote on the 
Lisbon Treaty.  In response, the European Council approved 
guarantees to the Irish that would exempt them from 
provisions of the Treaty relating to taxation policy, the 
right to life, education and the family, Ireland's 
traditional policy of military neutrality, and other social 
issues, including workers rights.  The guarantees will not 
change the text of the treaty nor will they require 
re-ratification of the Treaty by the other member states. 
 
"Yes" Campaign Kicks Off 
------------------------ 
 
¶3. (U) On June 21, Cowen announced that he would be leading 
the "Yes" campaign for the second Lisbon Treaty referendum. 
(Note: In June 2008 the treaty was rejected by a vote of 
53.4% to 46.6%.)  Cowen added that the date for Lisbon II 
would be finalized by June 26, with October 2 being the most 
likely selection.  In addition to political figures, a group 
of well-known sport and entertainment personalities have 
launched an "Ireland for Europe" initiative to support the 
"Yes" cmpaign. 
 
"No" Campaign Faltering 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) During the 2008 referendum, th two most visible 
leaders of the "No" campaign were Declan Ganley of the 
Libertas organization andSin Fein.  Following defeat of 
both Ganley and inn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald in the MEP 
election, both organizations have been badly hobbled.  The 
concerns of many other opponents of the Lisbon Traty, who 
were largely one-issue oters, have been addressed by the EU 
guarantees.  While the "Yes" campaign appears to be fielding 
a star-studded cast of supporters, no one has stepped up to 
champion a Lisbon II defeat. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) It would seem that the referendum is the 
government's to lose.  In addition to the sputtering "No" 
campaign, recent polls indicate that the Irish electorate is 
not inclined to abandon the EU during the current deeply 
troubled economic times.  Having already unleashed a 
staggering defeat on the Fianna Fail/Green governing 
coalition in the June local and European elections (Ref A), 
the Irish voting public is not likely to feel that it needs 
to use the referendum to make another political statement and 
further punish its elected officials.  Nonetheless, 
complacency of "Yes" supporters has been singled out as a 
leading cause of the defeat of the Treaty in June 2008.  The 
"Yes" campaign -- and especially the major political parties 
-- will have to guard carefully against this happening again. 
FAUCHER