VZCZCXYZ0008
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHDR #0401/01 1750433
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 240433Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8617
INFO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 3350

UNCLAS DAR ES SALAAM 000401 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT AF/E FOR JLIDDLE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON KHIV MARR PREL PGOV TZ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY LEW VISIT TO TANZANIA 
 
¶1. (SBU) Your visit to Tanzania will provide an opportunity to view 
a broad range of our assistance programs and their contributions to 
Tanzania's development.  Tanzania's political stability, sound 
macroeconomic management and enormous development needs have made it 
a favored recipient of donor funds in recent years.  Roughly one 
third of the government's budget consists of direct budget support. 
The U.S. has its largest Millennium Challenge compact with Tanzania, 
significant PEPFAR and PMI programs, and a range of other foreign 
assistance activities.  Our programs have had notable successes, 
particularly in health.  At the same time, they face considerable 
challenges related to poor infrastructure, shortages of skilled 
workers, limited bureaucratic capacity and weak ministerial 
leadership, as well as widespread corruption that affects both the 
public and private sectors.  Tanzania is viewed as a model of donor 
coordination and harmonization.  As a mission, we employ an 
integrated, interagency approach in support of both coordination and 
fulfilling our foreign assistance goals. 
 
Political and Economic Background 
--------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Tanzania's long record of peace and stability make it an 
example for the region.  Multi-party democracy was restored in the 
early 1990s, and with President Kikwete's landslide election in 
2005, Tanzania has seen three peaceful presidential transitions. 
Macroeconomic reforms since the 1980s, marking a transition from 
socialism towards a free-market system, have provided a basis for 
sustained moderately high economic growth.  President Kikwete, a 
Muslim, governs a population approximately 65 percent Christian; 
relations between religious communities have generally been 
harmonious.  The site of a 1998 terrorist attack on the U.S. 
Embassy, Tanzania has porous borders with its eight neighbors and an 
800 mile coastline. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Tanzania remains among the worlds' poorest countries, with 
 
per capita GDP of approximately USD 415 and 80 percent of the 
population engaged in mostly small-scale agriculture.  Despite 
overall economic growth, recently released data shows over one 
million more people living in poverty as compared to 2001. 
Infrastructure remains rudimentary; red tape and corruption impede 
private sector development.  The recent worldwide economic shocks 
have contributed to increased inflation, over ten percent for the 
first time in several years, as well as concerns about sustaining 
economic growth.  The tourism industry, one of Tanzania's main 
foreign exchange earners, expects a significant decrease in demand; 
Americans account for half of all high-end tourists.  There are 
positive signs that HIV/AIDS prevalence is not increasing and may be 
on a downward trend, as the HIV prevalence rate for 15-49 year-olds 
has decreased from seven percent (2003) to 5.7 percent (2007). 
 
¶4. (SBU) Politically, Tanzania remains dominated by the Chama Cha 
Mapinduzi (CCM) party, which has ruled since independence.  While 
elections on the mainland have generally been free and fair, serious 
irregularities and sporadic violence have marred elections in the 
autonomous islands of Zanzibar.  President Kikwete is expected to 
stand for election again in 2010, while Zanzibar's President is 
term-limited and will step down.  Parliament, long dormant, is 
increasingly exercising its oversight function on an executive 
branch accustomed to governing unchecked. 
 
¶5. (SBU) While a substantial majority of mainland Tanzanians support 
the ruling CCM over opposition parties, on Zanzibar support for CCM 
and the main opposition, the Civic United Front (CUF), is evenly 
divided.  Bitter conflict between the two parties, and between 
Zanzibar's two islands of Unguja and Pemba, persist, with CUF 
refusing to recognize the outcome of the flawed 2005 elections. 
President Kikwete announced reconciliation on Zanzibar as a priority 
for his government in 2005, but talks between the parties started 
slowly and stalled in 2008.  CUF leaders' insistence on a 
power-sharing government prior to the 2010 elections was rebuffed by 
the islands' CCM rulers.  While President Kikwete personally 
monitored progress of the talks, he has not wielded his position as 
CCM party chairman or his offices as Head of State to successfully 
broker an agreement that would be fair and equitable to both sides. 
CUF leaders have warned that the party membership is increasingly 
disillusioned with the democratic process. 
 
U.S.-Tanzanian Bilateral Relationship 
------------------------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) Since the election of President Kikwete in December 2005, 
U.S.-Tanzanian bilateral relations have significantly deepened. 
President Kikwete's pro-Western stance, coupled with an increasing 
level of U.S. assistance, has been the catalyst for this change, 
enhancing cooperation in sectors from health and education to 
counterterrorism and military affairs.  President Kikwete has 
visited the U.S. several times since taking office, including an 
official visit in August 2008 and a meeting with President Obama in 
May 2009.  The public signing of the MCC compact during President 
Bush's February 2008 visit to Tanzania, and the favorable public 
reaction to the visit, further cemented the relationship.  A 2008 
Pew Global Attitudes Poll showed a 19 percent increase, to 65 
percent, of Tanzanians who have a favorable attitude towards the 
U.S. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Under the leadership of President Kikwete, a former Foreign 
Minister, Tanzania has played an increasingly prominent role in 
regional issues.  Kikwete finished a one-year term as Chairman of 
the African Union (AU) in January 2009.  In that role, he overcame 
South African reticence to proceed with an AU mission to Comoros 
that restored national rule on the island of Anjouan.  He has also 
spoken out against military coups in Mauritania and Guinea and the 
unconstitutional change in power in Madagascar.  Within the Southern 
Africa Development Community (SADC), Tanzania has played a 
relatively quiet but positive role with respect to Zimbabwe. 
Tanzania is also a member of the East African Community, whose 
hesitant steps towards economic integration have been limited by 
Tanzanian concerns about competition from Kenya.  Tanzania has for 
many years played a constructive role in the Burundi peace process. 
Tanzania has expressed interest in participating in efforts to 
control Somali piracy. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Tanzania has long hosted refugees from the region's 
conflict areas.  The number has declined from more than a million in 
the late 1990s to about 100,000 currently (the U.S. has provided 
significant support for UN operations in the refugee camps and is 
one of the main resettlement destinations), mainly from Burundi and 
the Democratic Republic of Congo.  Over ninety thousand Burundian 
refugees returned home in 2008.  Tanzania is also host to the 
International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda. 
 
Military-to-Military Relations 
------------------------------ 
¶9. (SBU) Under the Kikwete administration, the GOT has begun 
participating in international peacekeeping operations.  Tanzania 
deployed 75 military police to Lebanon in 2007 to help secure the 
UNIFIL mission.  This year, the USG's African Contingency Training 
and Assistance (ACOTA) program will train a third company to rotate 
into UNIFIL.  Through ACOTA, the USG is supporting Tanzania as it 
prepares to deploy an initial battalion to Darfur as part of the UN 
peacekeeping mission.  ACOTA will train an additional two battalions 
for deployment to Darfur, at least one in 2009; all three battalions 
will also constitute part of an AU regional standby brigade. 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Tanzanian government has signaled its desire to deepen 
military-to-military ties with the U.S.   In December 2006, the GOT 
gave approval to CJTF-HOA to establish a Civil Affairs presence on 
the Swahili Coast.  The Civil Affairs team (which we have rebranded 
as "AFRICOM") is carrying out humanitarian projects and helping 
build civil military operations capacity within the Tanzania Peoples 
Defense Forces (TPDF).  In early 2008, the USG provided logistical 
assistance to support the African Union-led military operation in 
the Comoros Islands.  The DOD PEPFAR program - the largest in Africa 
- has since its 2005 establishment guided the renovation and 
refurbishment of all military hospitals and laboratories.  This 
partnership is now expanding to include cooperation on malaria and 
influenza control activities. U.S. naval ship visits to Dar es 
Salaam in September 2007 and February 2009 were the first since 
Tanzanian independence.  The first ever official visit by a sitting 
Tanzanian Chief of Defense Forces to the U.S. took place in May 
¶2009. 
 
U.S. Strategic Priorities 
-------------------- 
¶11. (SBU) The USG's strategic priorities in Tanzania are: 
(i) building the GOT's counterterrorism (CT) capacity and promoting 
security; 
(ii) strengthening Tanzania's democratic institutions and 
accountability, through parliamentary capacity building and 
anti-corruption efforts; 
(iii) improving education by ensuring equal access and improved 
opportunities to remote and underserved communities, especially 
focused on girls in Muslim and pastoralist areas; 
(iv) improving health by preventing the spread and mitigating the 
impact of HIV/AIDS, combating malaria, enhancing reproductive, 
maternal and child health services, ensuring access to clean water 
and sanitation, and strengthening health systems; 
(v) spurring sustainable economic growth through significant 
investments in transport, energy and water infrastructure, policy 
reform, agriculture, natural resources and biodiversity; and 
(vi) influencing public opinion, especially among Tanzania's 
Muslims, who tend to view U.S. policy as anti-Islam. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The USG supports these strategic priorities with active 
diplomatic engagement and a generous foreign assistance program. 
Although Tanzania enjoys the support of numerous donor countries, 
the U.S. is one of the top donors in Tanzania in dollar amounts.  In 
FY08, total USG bilateral assistance ran to nearly USD 400 million, 
including initiatives such as PEPFAR and PMI.  Taking into account 
the U.S. share of contributions from multilateral donors such as the 
World Bank and African Development Bank, U.S. assistance totaled USD 
662 million in 2008.  This does not include major private U.S. 
benefactors such as the Gates Foundation.  Other major donors 
include the U.K., Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and the 
European Commission. 
 
¶13. (SBU) To ensure that corruption does not undermine development 
efforts, we are supporting government and civil society 
anti-corruption efforts.  The Kikwete administration has taken steps 
to combat corruption, including appointing a new Director of the 
Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau (PCCB) and passing two 
pieces of legislation: the Anti-Money Laundering Bill and the 
Anti-Corruption Bill.  Recently, the drive against corruption has 
picked up again.  The first major court cases on grand corruption 
began in November 2008, with the arrests of individuals whose 
companies were alleged to have fraudulently received funds from the 
Bank of Tanzania (BOT), along with several BOT employees.  Shortly 
thereafter, two long-serving former ministers were jailed on 
corruption-related charges. 
 
¶14. (SBU) In the wake of the 1998 Embassy bombing, we are actively 
engaged in furthering counterterrorism (CT) cooperation with the 
Tanzanian government.  The Mission has an integrated strategy 
involving modernization of Tanzania's law enforcement as well as 
winning the hearts and minds of the Tanzanian people.  Our work in 
Pemba--a majority Muslim island--exemplifies this strategy.  We have 
knit together cultural preservation projects to repair historic 
mosques, self-help projects to improve rural livelihoods, and 
significant USAID malaria control and education programs.  MCC will 
rehabilitate and improve up to 36 kilometers of rural roads in Pemba 
under the Compact.  In addition, CDC is providing HIV prevention and 
treatment services at the central hospital in Pemba.  USAID and 
AFRICOM are partnering to build and furnish a primary school.  The 
Mission recently inaugurated an American Corner in Pemba to advance 
Islamic outreach efforts.  Another key component of the Mission's 
strategy is helping the government establish its own national, 
interagency CT Center to collect, share and analyze CT data. 
 
Health Challenges: HIV/AIDS and Malaria 
--------------------------------------- 
¶15. (SBU) Tanzania faces a mature generalized HIV epidemic, with a 
prevalence rate of approximately 5.8 percent and 1.4 million people 
living with HIV/AIDS.  An estimated 440,000 individuals are 
clinically eligible for antiretroviral treatment; however, available 
services can support less than half of those in need.  In FY 2008, 
PEPFAR provided Tanzania with over USD 313 million to support 
treatment, care, and prevention programs.  In FY 2009, the PEPFAR 
planning budget is USD 309 million, and will have access to an 
additional $50 million under an approved Partnership Framework.  The 
PEPFAR program has exceeded its original PEPFAR targets of providing 
anti-retroviral treatment for 150,000 individuals and care for 
750,000 individuals, including orphans and vulnerable children. 
Although the U.S. has fostered positive relationships with the 
Tanzanian government in the health sector, significant challenges 
remain, including: the need for stronger leadership in line 
ministries; poor health infrastructure; a shortage of health care 
workers; a weak government procurement system; and allegations of 
corruption in the public and private sectors.  We recently entered 
into very productive negotiations with the GOT on a PEPFAR 
Partnership Framework Agreement, which would deepen our relationship 
over the coming five years. We are also working to increase our 
coordination with - and the effectiveness of - Global Fund grants to 
Tanzania for HIV/AIDS, HIV/TB and malaria. 
 
¶16. (SBU) Malaria is the number one killer of children in Tanzania 
and continues to be a major cause of maternal mortality.  As a focus 
country under the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI), Tanzania 
received USD 34 million in FY 2008 to support the delivery of 
long-lasting, insecticide treated bed-nets, the care and treatment 
of malaria, the malaria in pregnancy program, and indoor residual 
insecticide spraying.  Malaria has been eliminated as a public 
health problem on Zanzibar: the recent 2007-2008 Malaria Indicator 
Survey (MIS) suggests that malaria prevalence is less than 1% on the 
islands. 
 
Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) 
-------------------------------------- 
¶17. (SBU) In September 2008, the MCC Compact signed by Presidents 
Kikwete and Bush entered into full force and effect.  It is the 
largest Compact signed to date ($698.136 million) and is targeted to 
address significant weaknesses in Tanzania's long-neglected 
transport (roads and an airport), energy, and water infrastructure. 
A significant amount of required preparatory work (environmental 
studies, finalization of technical designs, and planning for 
resettlement and compensation) has been completed or is underway. 
The next several months will see resettlement compensation r!Ym5K[QQlNI&3 2