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DE RUEHBS #0877/01 1761611
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 251611Z JUN 09
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000877 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN
SUBJECT:  EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: GROUPS PREPARE FOR VOTE ON BARROSO 
 
REF: (A) USEU Brussels 848; (B) USEU Brussels 826 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified - please handle accordingly. 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  On June 24, Joseph Daul, the chairman of the 
European People Party (EPP) group in the newly-elected European 
Parliament (EP), confirmed that the EPP would push for a 
confirmation vote of Jose Manuel Barroso as Commission President at 
the July 15 EP plenary session. The Progressive Alliance of 
Socialists and Democrats (PASD - new name of the Socialist group), 
the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and the 
Greens have called for a postponement of the vote until September. 
The EPP intends to offer to either the ALDE or the PASD leader a 
"technical agreement" to share the EP Presidency during the second 
half of Parliament's five-year term in exchange for their support of 
Barroso's confirmation in July.  The decision on whether to hold the 
vote on July 15 will be taken by the EP Conference of Presidents 
(meeting of political group leaders) on July 9. The Swedish 
Presidency has invited the chairs of the EP groups to Stockholm 
before July 9.  Commission President confirmations are by secret 
ballot in the EP, making the outcome less certain.  END SUMMARY. 
 
BARROSO NOMINATION AT CENTER OF EP TRADE-OFFS 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) As political group leaders in the European Parliament now 
bargain over EP top jobs, the nomination of Commission President 
Barroso has become a factor in the trade-offs. The Conference of 
Presidents (the chairpersons of the EP political groups) will decide 
July 9 whether the confirmation vote on Barroso will be on July 15 
in Strasbourg, or postponed to (at least) September.  The Conference 
of Presidents decides by simple majority, with each leader carrying 
the proportional weight of his group by MEP seats. (Daul will have 
264 votes, Schulz, 183, etc.) 
 
¶3. (U) The Green co-leader, Daniel Cohn-Bendit, launched an 
"anti-Barroso" campaign immediately after the June 4-7 EP elections, 
calling for a center-left alliance with the Liberals to oppose 
Barroso's nomination.  Socialist leader, Martin Schulz, and Liberal 
leader, Graham Watson, subsequently confirmed their intentions to 
ask for a postponement to (at least) September of the confirmation 
vote in the European Parliament, with some hoping that a contender 
to Barroso could emerge. 
 
¶4. (U) EPP chairman Joseph Daul countered on June 24 that the EPP 
wanted to maintain a July 15 vote on Barroso's confirmation.   Daul 
said he would consult next week with both ALDE and PASD (former PES) 
to shape a "technical agreement" with one of the two groups for the 
sharing of the EP Presidency, in exchange for an agreement to 
confirm Barroso at the July Plenary session.  The position of EP 
President (Speaker) has traditionally been shared between the EPP 
and the Socialists; however, current ALDE chairman Graham Watson is 
also a candidate for the post for the second half of the EP term. 
 
¶5. (U) Polish MEP Jerzy Buzek and Italian MEP Mario Mauro are EPP 
candidates for the EP Presidency.  The EPP will vote on July 7. 
Should Buzek win, as expected, Mauro may get the Foreign Affairs 
Committee chair as compensation. 
 
EPP-ALDE DEAL: FEASIBLE, BUT POLITICALLY DIFFICULT 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶6. (U) Daul noted that a technical agreement with the ALDE was 
mathematically feasible, since the new Conservative group's 55 MEPs 
will most likely also vote in favor of Barroso's appointment, 
providing, with the ALDE, a comfortable majority of 394 members (out 
of 736).  Daul acknowledged, however, that breaking the tradition of 
the two biggest groups sharing the EP Presidency could lead to a 
more polarized parliament in the future. 
 
MEETING WITH PRESIDENCY POSTPONED 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) The Swedish Presidency invited the chairs of the EP groups to 
Stockholm June 25, to launch consultations with the European 
Parliament in the "spirit of Lisbon," as the EU leaders had agreed 
to do.  However, given the current uncertainty in the EP, Daul 
reportedly found an "excuse" not to go, Schulz simply refused to go, 
and ALDE MEPs have not yet decided on their new leader.  Sweden thus 
renewed its invitation for consultations on July 7, two days ahead 
of the July 9 meeting of the Conference of Presidents. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Whenever the confirmation vote in the Parliament 
on Barroso's candidacy for President of the European Commission, it 
is important to keep in mind that this vote only requires a simple 
majority of MEPs voting, and the vote is by secret ballot.  Daul 
cannot be certain that the Euro-skeptic Czech ODS (President Klaus's 
party) or the Polish Law and Justice party (President Kaczynski's 
 
BRUSSELS 00000877  002 OF 002 
 
 
party) will vote to help him quickly reappoint Barroso.  Moreover, 
it remains to be seen whether some EU heads of government belonging 
to the  center-left (PASD) family who have long stated their 
preference for Barroso (Zapatero, Socrates, Brown, Stanishev) will 
be willing to put real pressure on their MEPs to secure the 
reappointent of the current Commission President.  END CMMENT 
 
THE NEXT STEPS 
----------------- 
 
.(U)  Following are the next steps in the process for the 
appointment of the Commission President: 
 
--June 30: ALDE group meets to elect its new President (most likely 
Guy Verhofstadt); EPP starts political consultations with ALDE and 
others. 
 
--July 2: EPP holds internal meeting to work out how to achieve a 
'pro-Barroso' majority. 
 
--July 7: EPP holds internal secret vote to decide on Jerzy Buzek 
(PL, most likely) or Mario Mauro (IT) as EP President candidate; 
Sweden has invited group leaders to Stockholm for consultations to 
decide if a vote on Barroso is possible on July 15. 
 
--July 9: EP Conference of Presidents votes whether a vote on 
Barroso could take place on July 15. 
 
--July 14: Parliament meets for the first time in Strasbourg and 
votes to elect its president. 
 
--July 15:  (subject to confirmation) A secret vote on Barroso could 
take place at the Parliament's Strasbourg plenary session, if the 
Conference of EP Presidents were to agree that it can be held on 
this date. 
 
MURRAY