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DE RUEHBS #0872/01 1761415
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R 251415Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9115
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000872 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/WE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT COALITIONS BEGIN TO FORM AFTER BELGIAN REGIONAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Following the June 7 regional elections, Belgium's 
political parties have been conducting talks on forming regional 
government coalitions.  In Francophone Belgium, formal negotiations 
have started on a Socialist (PS)-Christian Democrat (CDH)-Green 
(Ecolo) coalition.  In Flanders, Christian Democrats (CD&V), 
Socialists (SP.A) and Flemish Nationalists (N-VA) are seeking to 
reach a government agreement.  The Liberals (MR and Open VLD) north 
and south of the linguistic border face the prospect of being 
relegated to the opposition benches, which could negatively impact 
federal government cohesion.  The presence of Ecolo in the Brussels 
and Wallonia governments and Flemish Socialists in Flanders could 
make it harder for arms exporters to obtain licenses and intensify 
the debate over phasing out nuclear power in Belgium.  End Summary. 
 
 
Reynders' Lost Gamble 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Having failed to out-poll the Parti Socialiste (PS) in the 
Wallonia regional election, the francophone liberals Mouvement 
Reformateur (MR) of Vice Premier Didier Reynders knew on election 
day that it had no real prospect of returning to the regional 
government.  The discussions in francophone Belgium took an 
unexpected turn when the smaller parties, the Greens (Ecolo) and the 
Christian Democrats (Centre Democratique Humaniste (CDH)), started 
preliminary talks among themselves, rather than following tradition 
and leaving the initiative to the largest political party, the 
Socialists (PS).  Within one week Ecolo and CDH had decided to enter 
into coalition negotiations with the Socialists, a decision which 
applied to the francophone seats of the Brussels region as well. 
 
¶3. (SBU) One prominent Socialist politician told Poloff that the PS 
felt like an unwanted guest at the table with Ecolo and CDH, as 
minor scandals continue to dog the party.  Thus the issue of 
"governance" (code for rules controlling corruption) is first on the 
list of legislative initiatives the potential coalition partners are 
discussing.  Ecolo wants to limit the ability of politicians to hold 
more than one post, e.g., mayor and parliamentarian, at the same 
time.  Another Ecolo objective is to insert "green" initiatives into 
the PS-CDH "Marshall Plan" for Wallonia's economic development. 
Budget issues are prominent in the discussions as well.  According 
to the Socialist leader Poloff met, there is no money to buy 
acquiescence in one or another policy that might otherwise be 
unacceptable to a partner. 
 
Di Rupo Consolidates Position 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Having warded off the MR's attack on his party's leadership 
position in francophone Belgium, PS President Elio Di Rupo is today 
the premier politician of francophone Belgium.  Once the parliament 
is sworn in on June 24, his party will have ministers in the 
federal, Walloon, Brussels, francophone Community and 
German-language community governments.  This is certainly not a bad 
result for a party which had been wracked by scandals and received a 
reduced 32 percent of the Walloon vote and 23 percent of the 
Brussels vote compared to 2004.  The outcome of negotiations is a 
serious setback for Vice Premier and MR President Didier Reynders. 
Many of his MR colleagues resent the way he handled himself in the 
campaign, when he went negative and made very disparaging remarks 
about the Socialist leaders.  Reynders has in his most recent 
interviews stated that he will seek to remain party president until 
¶2012.  This means that he intends to lead the campaign for the 2011 
general election and local elections th following year. 
Nevertheless, outgoing EU Comissioner Louis Michel and his son 
Charles, the federal Minister for Cooperation and Development, are 
waiting in the wings, ready to take control of the party if Reynders 
makes more mistakes. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Since the Brussels government is composed of Flemish 
ministers as well as francophone, the liberal Open VLD, the largest 
Flemish party in Brussels, was entitled to take the initiative on 
the Flemish side.  Outgoing Open VLD minister Guy Vanhengel 
immediately clinched a deal with the local Flemish Christian 
Democrats (CD&V) and Greens (Groen).  This agreement greatly angered 
the Brussels Flemish Socialists (SP.A) who argued that Groen had 
committed treason by siding with the "conservative" Open VLD. 
 
Verhofstadt not Welcome 
----------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) Although the election result in Flanders was an immense 
disappointment for the Open VLD, the party expected the CD&V, the 
largest party in Flanders, to opt for the traditional tripartite 
regional coalition of Christian Democrats, Socialists and Liberals. 
But the CD&V could hardly ignore its former ally, the nationalist 
N-VA, which had become a small sensation by winning 13 percent of 
the vote.  A grand coalition of CD&V, Open VLD and SP.A with the 
N-VA was envisaged by some.  However, the N-VA made it understood 
 
BRUSSELS 00000872  002 OF 002 
 
 
that it had no intention of becoming the "not strictly needed" 
fourth coalition partner, running the risk of being evicted from the 
coalition at the whim of the other parties.  The SP.A felt the same 
way about a four-party coalition.  Aware that the tide was turning 
against his party, former Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt (Open VLD) 
made far-reaching concessions to outgoing Flemish Minister-President 
Kris Peeters (CD&V), who has the lead in forming the next Flemish 
government, but to no avail.  On June 19, Peeters called Verhofstadt 
and informed him that as far as the Open VLD was concerned, it was 
game over and the Open VLD was out. 
 
Sweet Revenge 
------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Losing the election and being evicted from the Flemish 
regional government formation talks came as a shock to the Open VLD. 
 In 2007-08, the Open VLD opposed an overall institutional deal on 
Flemish autonomy and thereby caused the rift between then electoral 
partners CD&V and N-VA.  For N-VA leader Bart De Wever this is his 
moment of sweet revenge.  It also is a setback for former Prime 
Minister Guy Verhofstadt who was seeking to make his comeback on the 
domestic political scene through "winning" the coalition 
negotiations.  In the days two weeks after the June 7 election, and 
before he offered concessions last weekend, Verhofstadt's statements 
in the press had the tone of an indispensible king-maker.  The 
election loss suffered by his party is also weakening the position 
of Vice Premier and Foreign Minister Karel De Gucht inside the 
federal government.  There is a growing consensus among Open VLD 
activists that a new generation will soon have to take the helm of 
the party. 
 
Prime Minister's Wish Unfulfilled 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy said before June 7 that 
similar federal and regional coalitions would be ideal for dealing 
with the budgetary and economic crisis Belgium is facing.  He would 
have preferred coalitions of Socialists, Christian Democrats and 
Liberals, reflecting the make-up of the federal coalition.  Although 
the regional coalitions will center on Christian Democrats and 
Socialists, the prospect of the Liberals riding the opposition 
benches north and south of the linguistic border worries the Prime 
Minister.  Despite their recent setbacks, Open VLD and MR leaders 
have pledged their continued support for the federal government. 
However, their recent statements suggest that liberal ministers in 
the federal government will be less flexible on budgetary restraint, 
oppose any attempt to raise new taxes, and insist that spending cuts 
come from regional rather than federal budgets. 
 
Changes in Policy 
----------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Now that the elections are over, the regional governments 
will have to return to the complex institutional discussions on 
redistributing powers between the regions and the federal 
government.  The trend is to return the negotiating to regional 
leaders rather than the so-called "wise men" from each linguistic 
community who had been asked by the King to lead discussions.  The 
N-VA resurgence will tend to stiffen the spine and lessen the 
patience of Flemish politicians.  Regional governments have limited 
authority in the international area, but the presence of Ecolo in 
the Brussels and Walloon regional governments and of the N-VA and 
the Socialists in the Flemish regional governments may well result 
in a somewhat different approach to some issues.  For example, the 
regional governments could become more restrictive in granting 
licenses for arms exports, which is within their competency.  On 
another point, Belgium will soon have to decide whether to phase out 
nuclear power in 2015 as already mandated, or modify that policy. 
Many militant greens will be adamantly against any change, even if 
their leaders are more pragmatic. 
 
BUSH