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DE RUEHBS #0770/01 1541620
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R 031620Z JUN 09
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000770 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR EUN ECON
SUBJECT:  EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS III - A WHO-WILL-BE-WHO 
PREVIEW 
 
REF: A) BRUSSELS 755, B) BRUSSELS 762, C) WARSAW 552, 
D) 08 Brussels 1825 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified - Please handle accordingly. 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:   Key posts in the European Parliament (EP) will be 
distributed in July.  The five-year EP Presidency is likely to be 
shared between Jerzy Buzcek (EPP-ED, Poland) for the first half-term 
and Martin Schulz (PES, Germany) for the second, although other 
contenders are in the wings.  The main group re-alignment will come 
from the UK Conservatives who will leave the EPP-ED group to form 
their own "European Conservative" group with a number of other 
parties.  Most group leaders should remain in place, except for 
Graham Watson (ALDE).  Main committee and delegation chairmanships, 
including the delegation for relations with the U.S., will be 
changing hands.  This is the last of our EP pre-election series 
(refs A,B). END SUMMARY. 
 
HOW ARE KEY POSITIONS ATTRIBUTED? 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) After the June 4-7 European Parliamentary elections, key 
positions in the EP, Committee and Delegation bureaus will 
distributed among the political groups (and among the national 
delegations inside political groups) in the latter part of July. 
According to the "Claeys formula," key Positions in the EP change 
every two-and-a-half years.  The position of EP President is usually 
split between the two biggest groups (which are expected to remain 
the EPP-ED and Socialists), with each group getting a half-term. 
The Claeys formula is also used for committee and delegation 
assignments.  The political groups take successive turns nominating 
their MEPs, with more positions for the bigger groups, starting with 
the EP Bureau and extending to committee leadership (within a 
specific protocol order of committees), followed by delegation 
leadership and then committee memberships.  Inside each political 
group MEPs and national delegations will bid for their desired 
positions/memberships, with bigger national delegations getting the 
first picks. 
 
BUZCEK AND SCHULZ LIKELY TO SHARE EP PRESIDENCY 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3.  (U) A deal between the Christian Democrats (EPP) and the 
Socialists (PES) should secure a shared presidency; however, current 
Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) leader, Graham 
Watson, has put forward his candidacy for the top job.  He has 
little chance, however, against the expected combined PES and EPP 
majority. 
 
¶4.  (U) The EPP currently has two candidates for the top post and 
will hold an internal election at the end of June.  Polish MEP Jerzy 
Buzek is most likely to be elected.  An MEP since 2004, he was 
Polish Prime Minister in 1999 when he took Poland into NATO and 
prepared the country for integration into the European Union (ref 
C).  He would be the first EP President from a "new country" and has 
support inside the group from France, Germany, Poland and most other 
new member states.  The second candidate is Italian MEP Mario Mauro, 
who may hope for support from southern member states in the EPP. 
Mauro is Berlusconi's choice and active in "Forza Italia," and he 
has been an MEP since 1999.  He was most recently an EP 
Vice-President.  The only PES candidate for EP President (to start 
in January 2012) is the current Socialist chairman, Martin Schulz. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Current EP President Hans Gert Poettering (EPP-ED, 
Germany) is running for re-election as an MEP and, according to one 
of his advisors, should come back as a simple backbencher. 
According to an advisor, Poettering would only wish to keep the 
chairmanship of the special working group on the Middle East that he 
set up in 2006. 
 
GROUP REALIGNMENTS 
------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The British conservatives have announced their intention 
to leave the EPP-ED group to form a new "European Conservative" 
group.  Other parties that might join them include the Czech "ODS", 
Belgian right-wing liberal "Lijst Dedecker", the Danish People's 
Party, Italian "Lega Nord" MEPs, and a number of Latvian and 
Lithuanian MEPs currently part of the Union for a Europe of the 
Nations (UEN) group. This could mean as many as 84 MEPs from eight 
countries. The new group would then be the fourth largest after the 
Liberals, who currently have 100 members.  An EPP advisor told us 
that he believed such a group would be hard to sustain as it would 
be mixing mainstream and extremist parties on an "anti-EU" platform, 
with little cohesiveness on other issues.  By leaving the biggest EP 
group, the UK Conservatives will also lose opportunities to get 
leadership positions in the most sought-after committees and 
delegations. 
 
 
BRUSSELS 00000770  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7.  (U) Other outcomes from the anticipated disappearance of the UEN 
group: Italian MEPs from "Alleanza Nationale" will join the EPP as 
they are now part of "Forza Italia." Irish MEPs from the "Fianna 
Fail" party currently in the UEN have announced that they will be 
joining the ALDE group. 
 
POLITICAL GROUP LEADERS - CHANGES POSSIBLE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) According to one EPP-ED group advisor, current EPP-ED 
chairman Joseph Daul of France is likely to remain the leader of his 
group after the elections.  However, another staffer mentioned that 
former commissioner and French agriculture minister Michel Barnier, 
if he decided to take his EP seat, may challenge Daul. 
 
¶9.  (U) Current PES leader Martin Schulz, a German, may remain PES 
leader for the first half-term, as he has no contender inside the 
group at this point, depending of course, on election results. 
If/when Schulz becomes+ EP President in 2012, a new PES chairman 
would have to be chosen. 
 
¶10.  (U) ALDE leader Graham Watson will not remain the chairman of 
his group.  The only official candidate for his succession at this 
point is another UK "Libdem" MEP, Diana Wallis, who is currently EP 
Vice-President.  Unconfirmed but persistent rumors have also cited 
Belgian former Prime-Minister Guy Verhofstadt and German Alexander 
Graf Lambsdorff as possible candidates to replace Watson. 
 
COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP 
--------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Committee chairmanships usually change with new 
Parliamentary terms.  Committee and delegation seats will be 
distributed during the week of July 20.  Current Foreign Affairs 
committee chairman Jacek Saryusz-Wolski (EPP, Poland) is likely to 
lose his chairmanship if Jerzy Buzcek becomes EP President (because, 
according to the Claeys distribution system, it would be very 
unlikely the Polish Christian democrats could get both the EP 
Presidency this top-level job). 
 
¶12.  (SBU) According to a committee advisor, German EPP MEP Michael 
Gahler will most likely get to chair the Foreign Affairs Committee. 
Gahler has special interests in development issues, Africa, EU 
Budget and the Middle East.  He also headed the EU observer 
delegation for the Pakistan elections in 2008.  In addition to being 
the Vice-Chairman of the foreign affairs committee, he has been 
Vice-Chairman of the ACP (African-Caribbean-Pacific)-EU Joint 
Parliamentary Assembly, and a member of the Subcommittee on Human 
Rights and the delegation for relations with Iran. Although not 
specialized in "transatlantic relations," he speaks good English and 
has shown openness in meeting with U.S. diplomats on a variety of 
issues.  Most other committee chairpersons are up for reelection but 
are unlikely to keep their current posts, given the great mobility 
between committees and delegations per EP house rules.  That said, 
some MEPs have specialized in their fields and are therefore 
re-assigned where they excel. 
 
KEY MEPS FOR U.S.-EU RELATIONS 
------------------------------ 
 
¶13.  (SBU) UK Conservative Jonathan Evans, the current chairman of 
the delegation for relations with the U.S. is not running for 
re-election.  The position has traditionally been in the hands of 
the Tories but this is likely to change because of their departure 
from the EPP-ED.  German Socialist Erika Mann and UK Conservative 
James Elles, co-founders of the Transatlantic Policy Network (TPN), 
are both running for re-election in weak positions on their party 
lists and are thus not certain to be back.  A few other MEPs known 
for their interest in working with the U.S. and likely to be back 
are Peter Skinner (PES, UK), Graf Alexander Lambsdorff (ALDE, 
Germany), Arlene McCarthy (PES, UK), Malcolm Harbour (Conservative, 
UK), Chris Davies (ALDE,UK),  Elmar Brok (EPP-ED, Germany), and 
Francisco Millan Mon (EPP-ED, Spain). 
 
KEY COMMITTEES FOR U.S. ECONOMIC INTERESTS 
------------------------------------ 
¶14.  (U)  Because of the way co-decision rules apply (ref D), there 
are several committees that play an important role on deciding key 
legislation related to U.S. economic and environmental interests. 
These are: Economic and Monetary; Employment; Environment, Public 
Health and Food Safety; Industry, Research and Energy; Internal 
Market and Consumer Protection; and Transportation.  While the 
International Trade and Agriculture committees do not fall under 
co-decision rules, they are also key committees for U.S.-EU economic 
relations.  Although there is no indication at this point who will 
end up chairing each of these committees, nominations to be decided 
the week of July 20 will be worth watching. 
 
DAVIS