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DE RUEHBS #0762/01 1531600
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021600Z JUN 09
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000762 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU EUN ECON
 
SUBJECT:  EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS II: THE ISSUES 
 
REF: BRUSSELS 755 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified - Please handle accordingly. 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  Because of the June 4-7 European Parliament 
elections, there is no legislative activity btween early May and 
September.  The economic risis and Turkey's accession are 
pan-European themes in some European Parliament campaigns.  Unlike 
in the 2004 EP elections, U.S.-EU relations are not an issue in a 
campaign otherwise centered mainly on domestic issues.  The turnot 
is expected to be as low as 40% average paricipation, and the 
elections to yield up to 5 percent new MEPs.  The EPP-ED (Christian 
Democrats) and the PES (Socialists/Social Democras) will vie for 
the position of the largest goup.  The EPP-ED will likely lose a 
number ofseats, as the British conservatives and the Czech ODS will 
be leaving the group to form a new Euro-skeptic/ conservative group. 
 The results will impact the nomination of the next Commission, in 
that MEPs confirm both the Commission President and the Commission 
as a slate. This is the second of three USEU reports on the EP 
elections; reftel set the stage.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) As of May 11, EP business halted to allow MEPs to hit the 
campaign trail.  The post-election EP will not meet again until July 
14-16, at which time the main business will be election of new 
leadership for the EP, the political groups and the committees (the 
subject of our third cable in this series).  The first plenary after 
the August summer break will be September 14-17, when voting on 
legislation will resume.  What was not finished before May 11 must 
be formally revived by a decision of the EP leadership (Conference 
of Presidents), or die. 
 
LOW TURNOUT, HIGH TURNOVER EXPECTED 
----------------------------------- 
¶3. (U) Some analysts are already predicting another drop in turnout 
this year from a low of 46 % in 2004, especially in central Europe 
where turnout in 2004 was only 21% in Poland and 17% in Slovakia. 
The European Parliament has tried reversing this trend by devising 
its first pan-European get-out-the-vote campaign costing 18 million 
Euros. Its impact will likely be slight. 
 
¶4. (U) Current EP president Hans-Gert Poettering has expressed 
concern that low turnout would benefit left and right extremist 
parties, as well as Euro-skeptics.  The first opinion polls, 
however, predict that the composition of the EP will not change much 
for the upcoming term.  The numbers often cited are around 240 seats 
for the EPP, around 210 for the PES, 90 for the liberals and 60 for 
a new conservative/Euro-skeptic group, with the rest being shared 
between the Greens, extreme left and extreme right parties.  The 
internal turnover is expected once again to be as high as 50% of new 
MEPs. 
 
FOCUS ON ECONOMIC CRISIS AND DOMESTIC ISSUES 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) European governments' handling of the economic crisis will be 
the key focus of national campaigns.  According to analysts, 
protectionist and Euro-skeptic parties may benefit from the economic 
downturn, to the extent that voters lack confidence in the European 
Parliament to address the problem.  According to a Gallup poll, 
there has been a big shift in priorities, with immigration and 
climate change as the "big losers." U.S.-EU relations will not rank 
high as a campaign issue, as the relation is perceived cross-party 
as positive, unlike in 2004. 
 
¶6. (U) Once again, domestic politics will be at the forefront of the 
campaigns.  In the absence of any pan-European campaign planning in 
any of the big political parties (the Greens are an exception), 
national parties tend to use the European elections as a mid-term 
test for national politics.  This lack of Europe-wide coordination 
is reinforced by the fact that many national leaders put their name 
at the top of the European lists to attract the voters, with no 
intention of taking up their seats if elected.  The seat would then 
go to their "alternate" candidate, usually less visible or popular. 
 
 
THE ISSUE OF TURKEY'S EU ACCESSION 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) One Europe-wide issue of note will be Turkey's accession to 
the EU.  No country can join the EU without European Parliament 
approval.  The Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) and many in its 
Christian-Democrat sister party (CDU) oppose Turkey's accession, as 
does the French UMP, with the support of President Sarkosy. Although 
a majority of current MEPs favored Turkish accession, they have been 
critical in their latest reports on Turkey's lack of progress in 
meeting European standards of democracy. 
 
ELECTIONS RESULTS AND COMMISSION PRESIDENCY: STILL BARROSO 
------------------------------------------- 
 
BRUSSELS 00000762  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. (U) Early polls and our EP interlocutors are predicting that the 
EPP will hold on to its plurality.  However, the British 
Conservatives intend to leave the EPP-ED group, along with the Czech 
ODS, to form a new conservative/Euro-skeptic party.  This loss, the 
impact of the economic crisis, and a low turnout are potential 
negatives for the EPP. Our EPP interlocutors have expressed 
particular concern at the possible progress of the extreme left in 
many countries, including France, Hungary and Greece. 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT:  Jose Manuel Barroso, the current Commission 
President, is the only candidate for Commission President supported 
by many Member States (including three Socialist Governments) and 
the EPP party.  The PES is unlikely to put forward a candidate, even 
if the Socialists win the elections.  The Danish PES party leader, 
Pour Nyrup Rasmussen, according to the internet daily EUObserver, 
said, however, that "if a new majority is possible, then Barroso, 
who is not the candidate of the PES, would not become Commission 
President." 
 
¶9. (SBU) A more likely scenario, should the Socialists become the 
largest group in the EP through alliance with the other left/green 
parties, is that it would horse-trade its support for Barroso for 
guarantees on both the Commission's political agenda and assignments 
to other key posts in the Commission.  Under the Nice Treaty, MEPs 
will need to confirm both the Commission President and the 
Commission as a slate.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶10.  (U) Our next report on the EP election will look at some key 
personalities likely to emerge as a result of the voting. 
MURRAY