VZCZCXRO3298
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSL #0247/01 1591521
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081521Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2533
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRATISLAVA 000247 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CE, EUR/ERA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EU LO
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS: LITTLE INTEREST, 
FEW SURPRISES 
 
¶1. Nineteen percent of Slovaki voters Slovak voters turned 
out this weekend to elect Euro-Parliamentarians, besting 
their last-in-the-EU turnout of 17 percent five years ago, 
but showing little interest in the process. While PM Fico's 
Smer party did predictably well, gaining 5 seats, each of the 
major opposition parties won two seats.  And, for the first 
time, the Slovak National Party (SNS) will send a deputy to 
the EP. 
 
¶2. The only minor surprises were: that a newly-formed party 
of liberal/libertarian technocrats, the Freedom and 
Solidarity Party (SAS) came very close to gaining a seat; 
that Smer's victory was not as impressive (31 percent) as had 
been forecast; and that the Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK) 
-- despite its imminent split and the usual pre-election 
anti-Hungarian rhetoric -- managed to hang on to two seats. 
Given how low voter turnout was, we don't believe the results 
provide much of a preview for the 2010 elections.  That said, 
it's clear that a more united and effective opposition could 
give Smer a run for its money, or conversely, that a 
SMER-SDKU coalition may becoming more likely. 
 
RESULTS 
------- 
 
¶3. With 19 percent of the Slovak electorate voting, Smer won 
32.1 percent for 5 seats; SDKU won 16.9 (the party came 
within 200 votes of a third seat; SMK and the Christian 
Democratic Movement (KDH) each earned two seats with 11.3 and 
10.8 respectively. Notorius ex-Premier Meciar's HZDS won 8.9 
percent and Jan Slota's corruption-ridden SNS won 5.5, with 
each scoring a seat. Finally, SAS, the new party founded by 
the intellect behind Slovakia's successful tax reforms, 
Richard Sulik, managed to get 4.7 percent of the vote.  None 
of the other extra-parliamentary parties came close to the 5 
percent threshold. 
 
¶4. In several cases, the voters up-ended the party preference 
lists.  Martin Fronc, who led the KDH slate, did not get 
enough votes for a seat. He resigned on June 8 from several 
leadership positions within the party, including Chairman of 
Foreign Relations, because of his performance in the polls. 
In another, albeit less dramatic upset, Boris Zala (SMER), 
the current chairman of the Parliament Foreign Affairs 
Committee was leapfrogged by current MEP Monika 
Flasikova-Benova.  The head of SNS's list also failed to gain 
a seat, but was replaced by an SNS candidate further down the 
list. 
 
¶5.  Despite having received several complaints, the Central 
Election Commission stated that the elections ran smoothly, 
with no violations of law having been noted.  Meanwhile, the 
media reported allegations of widespread vote-buying in the 
infamous Roma settlement Lunik 9, outside of Kosice.  There, 
80 percent of the votes went to Smer candidates. 
 
 
Reactions 
--------- 
 
¶6.  Each of the parties has characterized the weekend vote as 
victory.  It was a small one for SMK, SNS and SAS.  Given 
SDKU's razor-thin miss for a third seat, they performed 
relatively well. And, while numerically Smer was the big 
winner, the percentage of votes they received is 
significantly less than what polls suggested they would 
garner in regular parliamentary elections.  SNS leader Slota 
made inadvertently humorous comments about the party's 
one-seat (first ever in the EP) gain:  "Positive topics, such 
as the results of the work of our ministries...were 
deliberately ignored by the media."  In fact, SNS-led 
ministries receive more press attention, particularly of 
late, than any other, because they are riddled with 
corruption. 
 
¶7.  Monika Flasikova-Benova, the top vote-getter for Smer, 
was not as enthusiastic about SNS's, nor for that matter 
HZDS's election results. Both SNS and HZDS have "failed in 
crucial issues," she said, and thus Smer must consider 
rationally with whom it will create a coalition in 2010. 
According to Flasikova, the election results open the way for 
creation of a coalition between Smer and SDKU.   SMK Deputy 
Chair Jozef Berenyi told us on June 6 that his Smer 
colleagues were dumbfounded by SMK's self-destructive 
break-up.  SMK had been the front-runner in the minds of many 
to team up with Smer in 2010. Berenyi told us, that in his 
mind, and SDKU-Smer coalition seemed quite possible. Comment: 
Given recent statements along the same lines by the Prime 
Minister and his top advisor, Culture Minister Madaric, we 
agree. 
 
BRATISLAVA 00000247  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
 
EDDINS