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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000791 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2019 
TAGS: PGOV BR
SUBJECT: HOW SICK IS DILMA ROUSSEFF? 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Marie Damour, reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary.  Dilma Rousseff, President Lula's choice to 
succeed him as president in January 2011, cast doubt over her 
viability as a presidential candidate when doctors discovered 
in March that she has lymphatic cancer.  Observers say the 
Presidential Palace is being transparent about her condition 
and she will be able to run for president next year.  With no 
good alternative PT candidate in sight, the PT stands to lose 
the election should Rousseff withdraw.  Some believe her 
illness provides an opening for President Lula to seek a 
third consecutive term, despite his repeated avowals not to. 
Dilma looks well and if she can continue to look like a 
fighter and winner, it could help her win the election in 
October 2010. End summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) Dilma Rousseff, minister-chief of the civilian 
household and President Lula's top aide on domestic policy, 
was diagnosed with lymphatic cancer in March.  Her doctors 
stated that her cancer was caught early and she has a 90 
percent chance of a full recovery.  She had lymph nodes under 
her left arm removed and began what was originally scheduled 
as a four month program of chemotherapy in April.  In late 
May, she was briefly hospitalized on an emergency basis with 
pain in her legs, which was later attributed to an abrupt 
cessation of medication associated with the chemotherapy. 
Doctors said in the future she will taper off those drugs to 
avoid a recurrence.  In the meantime, Rousseff said she would 
cut back on her schedule.  By early June she had completed 
three chemotherapy sessions.  In a June 18 meeting with a 
Washington visitor (septel), Rousseff looked well with good 
natural color and light make-up, and a top aide told the 
Ambassador that Rousseff was responding so well to 
chemotherapy that her sessions would be reduced from six to 
four, ending in late June. 
 
¶3.  (C) Journalists, analysts, and politicians tend to agree 
that the Presidential Palace is not hiding information 
related to her illness and is trying to be as transparent as 
possible but might be overly optimistic about her prognosis. 
Still, her illness has provoked speculation about who might 
replace her as the Workers' Party candidate in 2010 should 
she be too sick to run. 
 
¶4.  (C) Senator Tiao Viana (PT, of Acre), who is a physician, 
told poloff on June 9 that Dilma's illness is exactly what 
the GOB says it is: a case of lymphatic cancer caught early 
with a 90 percent chance of being fully cured.  Viana also 
said that when her chemotherapy program is finished she 
should be considered cancer-free for five years.  She will be 
able to campaign without restriction and should be fit enough 
for all the exertions that a national campaign will require, 
he said. 
 
Possible scenarios 
 
¶5.  (C) Several possible scenarios could emerge from Dilma's 
cancer.  In one scenario, she and the PT inner circle might 
already know that she is much sicker than publicly revealed 
and too sick to be the candidate.  In another, she might be 
well enough now to become the candidate but later be weakened 
by the illness and unable to campaign effectively.  Another 
scenario, in harmony with the public statements by the GOB 
and Rousseff's doctors, is that she will respond well to 
chemotherapy and her cancer can be considered cured, or at 
least in remission. 
 
¶6.  (C) The first scenario seems less likely, since the PT 
gains no advantage by waiting to select and groom another 
candidate only 14 months before the election.  In the absence 
of another strong contender, the longer the party waits to 
put forth another candidate, the harder it becomes to build 
him or her up and gain national name recognition.  If 
Rousseff were too sick to run successfully, Lula and his 
inner circle would quickly move to put forth a viable 
alternative, although PT choices may be limited.  Without an 
alternative within the PT, Lula would choose to delay 
replacing Rousseff if her recovery is slower than expected. 
 
¶7.  (C) The second scenario poses the greatest danger to the 
PT's desire to retain the presidency, and if chemotherapy is 
successful this scenario will not occur.  But given the 
estimates that Rousseff's lymphoma has a 90 percent chance of 
 
BRASILIA 00000791  002 OF 003 
 
 
being cured now, there is still a ten percent chance that 
Rousseff will face this scenario, and it would probably mean 
the loss of the presidency for the Workers' Party in 2010. 
Nonetheless, Lula and the PT may be choosing to believe the 
most optimistic prognosis when the reality could be a range 
of possibilities, with the 90/10 prognosis at the sunny end. 
 
¶8.  (C) The third scenario seems the most likely.  Again, 
using the medical estimates, assuming the doctors are both 
correct and honest in their public statements, there is a 90% 
chance the cancer will be cured and Rousseff will be 
physically able to mount a strong campaign.  Some analysts 
have noted that a "victory" over cancer will play in her 
favor and foster an image of her as a fighter and winner. 
Conversely, if she looks weak and defeated next year, voter 
support will flag.  On June 18, poloff spoke with Paulo 
Delgado, a former five-term federal deputy for the PT 
(1987-2007), now a political consultant with the Federation 
of Industries of Sao Paulo (FIESP) and a monthly guest 
columnist for national daily O Globo.  He suspects the 
presidential palace is uncertain about her condition but 
hopes she will be well enough to go the distance.  Rousseff 
will have plenty of time to recover from the effects of 
chemotherapy before the October 2010 elections. 
 
In the wings 
 
¶9.  (C) What if Rousseff is no longer a viable candidate? 
Senator Viana said the most likely alternatives are Federal 
Deputy Antonio Palocci, the former finance minister who 
resigned in a scandal, and Gilberto Carvalho, the president's 
chief of staff.  The Supreme Court is to decide this month 
whether to allow federal prosecutors to bring a case against 
Palocci in the Supreme Court.  In this case, he would not be 
a viable candidate unless acquitted after trial, which could 
take a long time.  Carvalho is not nationally known, and the 
PT would face an uphill battle to build name recognition.  In 
his current portfolio he lacks a vehicle to put him before 
the public, unlike Rousseff, who as the "mother of the PAC," 
(the Accelerated Growth Program, a massive public works 
program) is regularly seen in a leading role at public works 
inaugurations.  Other than Carvalho and Palocci, there are no 
obvious alternatives from within the Workers' Party. 
Although there are five governors from the PT, none is now 
widely viewed as presidential material, and PT members of 
congress would all be very dark horses starting from the back 
of the pack.  Occasionally the name of Patrus Ananias, the 
minister for Social Development and the Combat against 
Hunger, is mentioned.  Like Carvalho, he is not well-known, 
but has the advantage of administering the Bolsa Familia 
(Family Stipend) program, the flagship social program of the 
Lula administration with national name recognition. 
 
Governor Neves to the rescue? 
 
¶10. (C) The wild card in everyone's calculations is Governor 
Aecio Neves (PSDB, opposition), of Minas Gerais.  Speculation 
about Neves's presidential ambitions has long been rife, 
often focusing on a possible switch to the Brazilian 
Democratic Movement Party (PMDB, a non-ideological party in 
the government coalition).  Delgado said another scenario is 
more likely: should Rousseff not be able to run, Neves could 
move to the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) or the Green 
Party (PV) and run with the support of the Workers' Party. 
Neves has been careful to maintain good relations with Lula 
and the PT, and PT support for his candidacy is plausible, 
especially to beat Sao Paulo Governor Jose Serra (PSDB), who 
now has an edge over all other possible candidates in early 
polls.  However, there is also speculation that Neves has an 
arrangement with Serra to support Serra's candidacy in 2010 
in return for becoming Serra's choice as his successor.  If 
Neves is to run for president for a different party, he must 
resign from the governorship by early October because he 
cannot switch parties less than a year before the election, 
and were he to switch without resigning, the PSDB would sue 
to reclaim the governor's seat and remove him office. 
 
President Lula to the rescue? 
 
¶11. (C) There is always speculation about a third consecutive 
term for Lula, which would require a constitutional 
amendment.  President Lula has repeatedly (and convincingly) 
stated publicly that he is against it.  Nonetheless, there is 
 
BRASILIA 00000791  003 OF 003 
 
 
considerable mistrust of Lula and the PT on this subject, 
even among allied parties.  Federal Deputy George Hilton 
(Progressive Party - PP, of Minas Gerais) told poloff on June 
17 that he believes Rousseff's illness could be worse than 
publicly admitted but the Presidential Palace and/or the PT 
are maintaining her candidacy so that later this year they 
could drop her and, with no alternative in sight, force Lula 
to change his mind, let Congress amend the Constitution, and 
have him run for a third term.  (Comment: This scenario is 
highly implausible, but this and similar lines of thinking 
will always find followers among those who do not trust Lula 
and the PT.  End comment.)  Delgado pointed out that Lula has 
never categorically closed the door to running for a third 
term and one should not rule out such a turn of events. 
 
¶12.  (C) Comment.  When Rousseff's illness was first made 
public, the Lula government rushed to give optimistic 
predictions for Rousseff's health when it was too early for a 
reliable prognosis.  This indicates some wishful thinking on 
the part of Lula and top government figures.  Rousseff's 
illness has also exposed a vulnerability in the PT that it 
did not have only a few years ago, when it could point to 
several star-power governors and congressmen.  Those stars 
for one reasons or another have now faded, and the party has 
adopted Dilma Rousseff, the choice of Lula, its senior 
leader, for better, for worse, in sickness and in health.  If 
she is sicker than publicly stated, and cannot effectively 
campaign and be elected Lula's successor, Lula is making a 
colossal gamble that will be increasingly harder to unmake as 
time passes.  But by all appearances, Dilma is doing well, 
and a winning and healthy appearance could help her to close 
the gap in polls with Serra and contest the election in 
October 2010. 
SOBEL