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SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A 
 
VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA 
 
"PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE" 
 
E.0. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO GM US IR KN IS AF ZI
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAN, GITMO, NORTH KOREA, ISRAEL, 
AFGHANISTAN, ZIMBABWE 
 
¶1.   Lead Stories Summary 
¶2.   Iranian Presidential Elections 
¶3.   Guantnamo Prisoners 
¶4.   New North Korean Threats 
¶5.   Israeli PM Netanyahu Address 
¶6.   Troop Re-enforcements in Afghanistan 
¶7.   Zimbabwe 
 
 
¶1.   Lead Stories Summary 
 
Editorials focused on the outcome of the Iranian presidential 
elections and the SPD party congress.  This was also the focus of 
this morning's headlines in the German press.  ZDF-TV's early 
evening newscast Heute and ARD-TV's early evening newscast 
Tagesschau opened with reports on the clashes in Tehran following 
the Iranian presidential elections. 
 
¶2.   Iranian Presidential Elections 
 
All media carried lengthy reports and many commentaries on the "the 
worst unrests in Iran for ten years" (ZDF-TV's Heute-Journal) after 
"Ahmadinejad's dubious re-election" (FT Deutschland).  Media 
highlighted that they are no longer able to report freely from the 
country.  ARD-TV's Tagesthemen noted that "Ahmadinejad wants to stay 
in power come what may....  Fear is haunting the country.  Motorized 
militias are hunting down everybody who seems to be suspicious.... 
The militias chase after everybody who is reporting on the 
demonstrations." 
 
FT Deutschland editorialized: "Ahmadinejad's dubious re-election is 
the first real test for Obama's foreign policy.  The omnipotent 
Revolutionary Guards were apparently determined to prevent 
Moussavi's election.  For the time being, this dashed all hopes that 
moderate forces could prevail.  The highest political leader and 
hardliner Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will continue is confrontational 
foreign policy course, regardless of whether Obama extends his hand. 
 Anyway, it would have been hard enough for the U.S. President to 
start talks with Iran over its nuclear program.  He must now fear 
that any dialogue leads to a diplomatic defeat.  At worst, the case 
of North Korea would be repeated, where concessions only bought the 
regime more time to pursue its program to build a nuclear bomb. 
Obama's charm offensive is based on the hope that a more positive 
image of America could prevent such a scenario in Iran.  The images 
from Tehran let us assume that carrots alone will not make an 
impression on such a regime." 
 
Frankfurter Allgemeine commented: "The internal tension in Iran and 
the tensions with foreign countries will increase.  Disappointed and 
curious young people will continue to rebel.  In the provinces with 
ethnic minorities, Ahmadinejad and his regime are not popular.  The 
international community will have its difficulties with this Iran. 
All Arab countries had anticipated a change of government, and even 
Syrian President Assad is supposed to have recently lost his 
patience with Ahmadinejad.  Russia is now also expressing its 
concerns over Iran's nuclear program.  U.S. President Obama is 
facing a difficult decision.  He had given a window of opportunity 
for the next half a year.  Ahmadinejad's Iran will not give in." 
 
Sueddeutsche opined that "Dealing with Iran will be more difficult 
for the international community.  Washington could have started 
talks over the nuclear program with a reform-minded President. 
Ahmadinejad has so far not showed any interest in reaching 
compromises.  When the regime is getting under more pressure at 
home, it will be even more stubborn abroad.  This election will have 
an impact for a long time-in Iran and abroad." 
 
Berliner Zeitung remarked in an editorial: "Pressure on Iran will 
now increase from all sides.  Congress will soon approve new 
sanctions, Europeans will strengthen their embargo soon after. 
 
Tehran's leadership will not renounce its right to enrich uranium. 
None of the other candidates had promised this, but Ahmadinejad's 
re-election might have increased the obstacles for resolving the 
conflict.  Even if Ahmadinejad moderates his language, a military 
attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear plants is becoming increasingly 
likely.  Prime Minister Netanyahu urged Obama before the elections 
in Iran to present a diplomatic timetable and to prepare for its 
failure.  In the case of Iraq, this strategy led right into the 
war." 
 
Die Welt wondered whether the election result was a "fraud or the 
victory of the province over the metropolises?"  The paper concluded 
its editorial: "The real danger for the regime is an American 
President who can no longer be portrayed as the 'great Satan,' 
someone who is tough on Israel and continues to extend his hand.  A 
military strike would really very much suit the regime of 
Ahmadinejad.  It would gather the people behind the government. 
Nobody would do him this favor now." 
 
Frankfurter Rundschau commented:  "The UN Security Council has not 
yet imposed the toughest sanctions against Iran:  a complete stop to 
the sale of petrol....  If you stop these supplies, then all 
Iranians would rebel." 
 
¶3.   Guantnamo Prisoners 
 
Suedwestrundfunk radio aired the following commentary: "First 
Albania, then Palau, and now the Bermudas.  What comes next?  Maybe 
further Guantnamo prisoners could be deported to Nauru.  It is the 
smallest island state in the world, in the center of the Pacific 
Ocean.  What other conclusion should we draw from the current 
political debate?  The Uighurs are among the 60 Guantnamo prisoners 
whom the United States does not consider dangerous.  If German 
politicians, primarily in the CDU/CSU, treat them according to the 
questionable motto: 'They might be dangerous,' then this corresponds 
exactly to the perverse logic of the Bush administration.  It is a 
duty for Germany to help President Obama close Guantnamo.  This is 
a question of credibility and morality which German politicians have 
referred to again and again.  That is why it would be the correct 
signal to end this indecent gamesmanship with these peoples' fate, 
and to make a decision before the Bundestag election--namely to 
accept the prisoners." 
 
According to Frankfurter Allgemeine, "it has turned out that 
President Obama's decision to close Guantnamo will bring a whole 
string of legal and political problems with it.  One is the attempt 
to accommodate the prisoners in other countries.  There are numerous 
arguments against their acceptance but the strongest argument 
against the acceptance is the ingenious question of why other 
countries should allow these people to enter their territory, while 
the Americans consider them to be too dangerous in their own 
country.  The currently practiced 'sale' of former prisoners to 
other countries is at least an indecent practice." 
 
Regional daily Mannheimer Morgen (6/13) observed: "Especially 
Interior Minister Schduble is creating the impression as if very 
dangerous terrorists were waiting at our front door to be let in. 
The categorical 'no' to the acceptance of Uighurs cannot be 
dismissed with such an argument.  This only seems to be a pretext. 
In reality, Germany does not want to jeopardize economic relations 
with China. The regime in Beijing is calling for the extradition of 
the Muslims to put them on trial.  For the Uighurs, this would be 
tantamount to the death penalty.  But Barack Obama is not making a 
good impression either.  He himself does not want to accept 
Guantnamo prisoners in the U.S. out of fear of opposition.  That is 
why he is carrying out an indecent human trafficking.  The tropical 
island of Palau is to get $85,000 per Uighur.  With such a move he 
has now bought new friends." 
 
Badische Zeitung of Freiburg (6/13) had this to say: "Why should 
Germany accept men who are considered to be too dangerous to be 
accepted on the U.S. mainland?  Interior Minister Schduble may feel 
confirmed now.  But all those who wanted to offer assistance to 
Washington in finding a way out of the quagmire of injustice created 
by Bush and Cheney were offended.  It does not matter whether Obama 
was unable or did not want to assert his views against domestic 
resistance.  In the end, the U.S. will resolve its Guantanamo 
problem with the support of Palau, the Bermudas, and Saudi Arabia. 
As long as none of the victims lands in the U.S., Washington can 
spare further requests in Europe.  It will only stir up bad 
feelings." 
 
¶4.   New North Korean Threats 
 
Frankfurter Allgemeine noted: "The North Korean regime rarely lacks 
an answer, but over the past few weeks, Pyongyang used its 
vocabulary of threats to such a degree that it could hardly find 
more extreme words following the UN Security Council resolution.  It 
reported in a threatening manner that it would enrich uranium for 
the construction of more nuclear weapons.  This is a confession 
because DPRK had always refused to acknowledge that it operated an 
enrichment program.  At the latest with this news report, every one 
must have realized that it is impossible to strike a 'political' 
deal with the leadership in Pyongyang.  All forces affected by the 
conflict must rather try to show the same cohesion they showed last 
Friday in the Security Council.  North Korea cannot be impressed by 
making concessions, but steadfastness without any provocative 
statements should not fail to have an effect." 
 
Under the headline: "The Regime of Saber Rattlers," Sueddeutsche 
Zeitung judged: "The regime in Pyongyang is rattling its sabers ever 
more loudly.  It wants to be perceived especially by President 
Obama.  But instead of assistance and security guarantees, Pyongyang 
only achieved an intensification of sanctions by the UN Security 
Council.  Did Kim Jong-il fall into his own trap?  He seems to be 
pursuing domestic goals with his rhetoric.  The North Koreans are 
supposed to unite behind his third son, his designated heir.  And 
this can only happen with the fear of a war.  Sanctions, if they 
have an effect at all, will hardly be successful.  They will only 
aggravate the situation of the ordinary people.  But even a slight 
opening would take way any justification for the regime's existence. 
 If a coup takes place in North Korea, then it will come from the 
inside.  The first indication of a relaxation of the situation 
exists - with the industry park Kae-song and also in border traffic 
with China.  That is why Kim needs nuclear weapons and 
Intercontinental missiles to play for time.  Otherwise his saber 
rattling will be too soft." 
 
According to Berliner Zeitung, "North Korea's powers-that-be would 
be insane if they pushed things to the limit.  And this would be all 
the more so because the most recent sanctions are much less painful 
than they look at first sight.  It is much more worrying for the 
regime in Pyongyang that China is not happy about Pyongyang's 
nuclear adventures. What is of concern to Beijing is that Japan 
could be provoked to modernize its arms and procure a few nuclear 
weapons.  From the perspective of power politics, this would be an 
unpleasant.  It is true that China could switch off electricity for 
North Korea overnight, but this is a double-edged sword for Beijing 
because it is more afraid of DPRK's economic collapse than of North 
Korean nuclear weapons.  That is why Beijing is taking efforts to 
assume a conciliatory attitude towards Pyongyang - and one more 
reason why the sanctions are not likely to be very effective.  Kim 
Jong-il has little reason to feel impressed by the most recent 
sanctions.  For him the most recent provocations serve domestic 
purposes.  He wants to exert foreign policy pressure to achieve 
cohesion at home and to prepare his successor to enter the throne." 
 
¶5.   Israel PM Netanyahu Address 
 
All media carried reports on Prime Minister Netanyahu's keynote 
speech.  ARD-TV's Tagesschau correspondent in Tel Aviv, Richard 
Schneider, noted: "He tried to reach out to President Obama's 
government by talking for the first time about a Palestinian state. 
He said that, if the Palestinians acknowledged Israel, Israel would 
acknowledge a Palestinian state, which must be de-militarized to 
coexist peacefully with Israel....  However, he also said that he 
would stop new settlement construction, but allow the expansion of 
already existing settlements.  This is a clear opposition to 
President Obama, who demands a complete stop of settlement 
expansion....  How will Washington respond?  Will it be content with 
half a loaf?  Or will it call on Israel to do more?" 
 
Tagesspiegel editorialized: "Much ado about many things that are not 
new.  In his speech about Israel's foreign policy, Prime Minister 
Netanyahu said for the first time that he would recognize a 
Palestinian state as Israel's neighbor. But with a well-known style, 
he made his approval for Palestine dependent on a number of 
conditions, of which quite a number are unacceptable by the 
Palestinians.  The brilliant speaker Netanyahu, however, should not 
be measured against his words but against his deeds that will not 
follow, or let us better say against deeds that are not likely to 
happen.  Those who, following his speech, expect Netanyahu to make 
peace with the Palestinians can only believe in miracles.  But even 
in a Middle East that believes in miracles, such wonders have become 
highly unlikely." 
 
Under the headline: "Netanyahu: Palestinians Should Recognize 
Israel," Frankfurter Allgemeine reported: "Israel's Prime Minister 
Netanyahu set the conditions for the foundation of an independent 
Palestinian state in a speech that was awaited with bated breath. 
He called upon the Palestinians to accept Israel as 'national state 
of the Jewish people.'  In addition, the Palestinian state must be 
demilitarized and Jerusalem would remain undivided." 
 
Sueddeutsche Zeitung wrote under the headline: "Netanyahu Advocates 
Demilitarized Palestinian State" and reported: "For the first time, 
Israel' Prime Minister Netanyahu advocated a demilitarized 
Palestinian state.  But before such a state can be formed, there 
must be international guarantees that the Palestinians would not get 
their own armed forces and would not get control over their air 
space, said Netanyahu on Sunday in a keynote address on the Middle 
East conflict." 
 
¶6.   Troop Re-enforcements in Afghanistan 
 
Frankfurter Allgemeine commented: "The United States will deploy 
more troops, more diplomats and more aid workers, and it will 
provide more money.  Given this increasingly asymmetrical situation 
between the U.S. and its NATO partners, there has been talk of an 
Americanization for some time.  This is not a good development. 
Neither the Americans not the Europeans can be interested in 
this....  European countries, which currently are increasing their 
troops prior to the Afghan elections, should think twice before they 
withdraw them again." 
 
Tagesspiegel editorialized: "The advocates for a medieval 
Afghanistan are mobilizing everything they have.  The global 
coalition is challenged.  It must continue to focus on its goal.  It 
would otherwise be a bad omen for the future - everywhere in the 
world." 
 
Frankfurter Rundschau commented:  "It must be clarified why the 
mission in Afghanistan should be expanded.  It would otherwise just 
be the same old strategy, which has not helped anybody yet except 
the resistance.  There are an increasing number of insurgents and 
attacks.  The international community has so far failed to find the 
right path.  It must increase its efforts to search for it and then 
determinedly pursue it - or finally leave it." 
 
Koelnische Rundschau opined: "AWACS planes do not just serve the 
purpose of controlling the civilian air traffc' as Defense Minister 
Jung is implying.  The special planes are rather good at support 
allied air raids by improving the coordination of combat jets to 
make direct hits.  Minister Jung is selling the deployment of AWACS 
planes as a self-defense measure, noting that six German Tornado 
planes in the region would benefit from it.  This can drive you to 
despair." 
 
¶7.   Zimbabwe 
 
Sueddeutsche Zeitung wondered: "How should the West react to the 
developments in Zimbabwe?  It is creating a difficult task for the 
government leaders in Washington, Berlin, London, and Paris.  How is 
it possible to help the regime without strengthening Mugabe's 
corrupt clique?  It is still too early to lift the sanctions on the 
old regime; it would be a false signal as long as human rights are 
disrespected and Mugabe uses tricks.  On the other hand, it is 
important that the international community support Tsvangirai.  The 
West must find ways and means, for instance, to co-finance the 
salaries for doctors and teachers without money being channeled to 
Mugabe's supporters.  It would be wrong to take a wait-and-see 
attitude because such a course would catapult Zimbabwe back into 
Mugabe's despotism.  But the greater the changes Tsvangirai is able 
to assert with other countries, the more difficult it will be for 
the soldiers to fire at the people.  The masses want Tsvangirai, not 
Mugabe.  This is Zimbabwe's future path; the downtrodden country has 
no other." 
 
KOENIG