VZCZCXRO8466
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0511/01 1660643
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 150643Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1372
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000511 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 1258: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: LOCAL ELECTIONS STRENGTHEN EX-RADICALS, RATTLE 
NATIONAL GOVERNMENT 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) The results of June 7 local elections in two Belgrade 
municipalities strengthened the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) - 
led by ex-Radicals Tomislav Nikolic and Aleksandar Vucic - while 
leading to discord within the Democratic Party (DS) and the national 
governing coalition.  Although the SNS succeeded in delivering a 
significant blow to the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) in the SRS 
stronghold of Zemun and may edge out the DS in Vozdovac, neither the 
SNS nor DS is positioned to assemble a governing coalition with 
traditional partners in either municipality.  The result is heated 
debate about the prospect of DS-SNS coalitions, which is rattling 
the DS and the national governing coalition.  Although the local 
election results are not a mirror of voter sentiment in Serbia 
nationwide, the demonstrated electoral strength of the SNS has 
alarmed the DS.  End Summary. 
 
 
Local Elections in Belgrade Municipalities 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) The June 7 local elections in the Belgrade municipalities of 
Zemun and Vozdovac delivered victories to the Serbian Progressive 
Party, led by ex-Radicals Tomislav Nikolic and Aleksandar Vucic, 
over Democratic Party-led coalitions and the Serbian Radical Party. 
(Repeat elections were necessary in Zemun because the SNS-SRS split 
caused the local government to fall, and in Vozdovac because parties 
were never able to form a governing coalition after May 2008 
elections.)  In Zemun, a traditional SRS stronghold , final returns 
show the SNS garnered nearly 34% to the DS-led "For a European 
Zemun" coalition's 19%, followed by 10% for the SRS, 8% for the 
Serbian Socialist Party-United Pensioners Party-United Serbia 
(SPS-PUPS-JS) coalition, 7% for the Democratic Party of Serbia-New 
Serbia-People's Party (DSS-NS-NP) coalition, and over 2% for Rasim 
Ljajic's "List for Tolerance."  The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
did not cross the 5% threshold.  With a total of 57 local assembly 
seats at stake, the SNS will receive 23, while the DS-led coalition, 
SRS, SPS-PUPS-JS, and DSS-NS-NP will receive 19, 6, 4, and 4 seats, 
respectively.  As a minority party, Ljajic's "List for Tolerance" 
benefited from a lower threshold and will take one seat in Zemun. 
Voter turnout was low at only 35%, according to the Local Election 
Commission. 
 
¶3.  (U) In Vozdovac, unofficial returns show that the SNS squeaked 
by the DS-led coalition "For a European Vozdovac" by 29.8% to 
29.26%, while the DSS-NS-NP and SPS-PUPS-JS coalitions won 12.3% and 
10.54%, respectively.  The SRS in Vozdovac came in fifth with 6.36%, 
ahead of the LDP which barely passed the threshold at 5.41%. 
Ljajic's "List for Tolerance" garnered a surprising 3.31%, given 
that he has previously been politically active only in the Sandzak. 
Out of 56 local assembly seats, the SNS holds 18 and the DS will 
take at least 17 seats.    DSS-NS-NP, SPS-PUPS-JS, SRS, and LDP will 
take 7, 6, 3, and 3 seats, respectively. The "List for Tolerance" 
will take two seats.  Voter turnout was a mere 33%.  Citing 
irregularities, the Municipal Elections Commission in Vozdovac 
announced on June 8 that the vote would be repeated in three polling 
stations, giving rise to SNS accusations of a last ditch effort by 
the DS to change the distribution of seats whereby one DSS seat 
could go to the SPS or one SNS seat could go to the DS. 
Tremors in National Coalition over SNS 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Negotiations to form the local governments may be 
protracted, and are already having an impact on national-level 
politics as neither the DS nor the SNS appears able to form a 
majority coalition with their traditional partners.  In Zemun, an 
SNS coalition with DSS-NS-NP and Ljajic's list would fall one vote 
short of a majority.  (The SRS refuses to join a coalition with the 
SNS.)  In Vozdovac, a DS grouping with its national coalition 
partners (including LDP and Ljajic's list) could also fall one vote 
short, pending the outcome of the contested seat.  Speculation about 
a DS-SNS coalition has underscored a rift in the DS between those 
who support a DS-SNS alliance in the municipalities (reportedly 
Tadic advisor Srdjan Saper and DS deputy president Dusan Petrovic) 
and those who oppose cooperation and prefer new local elections 
(Belgrade Mayor Dragan Djilas and Defense Minister Dragan 
Sutanovac).  G17 Plus President and Economy Minister Mladjan Dinkic 
on June 9 threatened to leave the national government should the DS 
choose to form a local government with the SNS. (Note: This is not 
the first time Dinkic has threatened publicly to leave the 
government over a political dispute. End Note.)  There are also 
rumors that the DS and SNS are discussing a third option in which 
the SNS would form the government in Zemun with the DSS-NS-NP 
coalition, Ljajic's list, and JS deputies, while the DS would form 
the Vozdovac government following the revote in three polling 
stations that is expected to give the DS or SPS an additional seat. 
 
 
BELGRADE 00000511  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Current Vozdavac Municipality President Goran Lukacevic 
told Charge at the June 11 Russian National Day event that he was 
hopeful DS would eventually get the remaining disputed seat, 
allowing them to put together a pro-European coalition.  He said 
that at least in Vozdovac, any agreement with SNS was 
"unacceptable."  According to Lukacevic, Vozdavac SNS consisted of 
thugs and drug-dealers and giving them power would be "scandalous." 
He said he was only speaking for Vozdovac SNS and did not want to 
comment on possible cooperation with SNS in other municipalities. 
Lukacevic blamed the DS loss on lack of support from the DS 
leadership.  "Every party president came to Vozdovac except for the 
Pro-Europe Coalition partners," he said.  In response to Charge's 
comment that Belgrade Mayor Dragan Djilas had the same criticism, 
Lukacevic said, "even Djilas only visited us twice during the 
campaign."  As a result, he said, anyone and everyone who would ever 
vote for SNS turned out for the election, while those who might have 
voted for the Pro-Europe coalition mostly stayed home out of 
election fatigue and apathy.  He said he hoped for new elections 
where DS might wake up and do more to get out the vote. 
 
SNS, SPS Buoyed by Results 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In addition to their concerns over the SNS's ideology, 
those who oppose any coalition with Nikolic's party are also alarmed 
by the SNS's surprisingly strong showing in its first electoral 
test.  Local SNS party officials from Zemun predicted to us on June 
5 that they would attract at least 60% of SRS voters, as well as new 
voters from other parties and the younger generation, by focusing 
the campaign on everyday life issues such as fighting drugs, 
cleaning parks, and developing infrastructure.  The weak showing of 
the SRS in the Radical base demonstrated that the SNS strategy 
succeeded.  The SNS's strong showing in Vozdovac exceeded the 
party's expectations; SNS Vozdovac officials told us on June 5 that 
they expected to come in slightly behind the DS.  SNS Belgrade 
chapter head Nebojsa Stefanovic noted that the four-person SNS 
Vozdovac party board consisted of one former SRS member as well as 
two former DSS and one former G17 Plus mid-level officials. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The SPS-led coalition also fared better than expected, 
doubling its seats in Vozdovac and winning seats for the first time 
in Zemun.  The returns exceeded the expectations of SPS Belgrade 
chapter head Nikola Nikodijevic, who told us on June 5 that his 
party expected to receive between 5-8% in both municipalities. 
Nikodijevic voiced complaints, which we also heard from SNS 
officials, about the lack of local media coverage and alleged 
expenditures by DS of municipal funds to finance last-minute 
vote-winning activities.  Some observers believe that JS chairman 
and Jagodina mayor Dragan Markovic Palma may have been a boon to the 
SPS ticket in the rural areas of Vozdovac, where the mayor played up 
his populist charm and sponsored bus tours for Vozdovac citizens to 
see SPS-favored policies at work in Jagodina. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Although the Zemun and Vozdovac elections marked a 
significant achievement in the SNS's development as a party, we do 
not believe the results provide a reliable picture of Serbian voter 
preferences nationwide.  Zemun's history as a hotbed of 
nationalist-populist sentiment predisposed the municipality toward 
the SNS, while the divisions between rural and urban areas in 
Vozdovac provide a more balanced but still imperfect sample of 
voting preferences.  With SNS officials telling us that they are 
prepared to join with the DS to form governments in both 
municipalities, the ball is in the DS's court.  If Tadic's party is 
not able to reach agreement with the SNS either to go into coalition 
or trade one municipality for the other, the alternative would be 
yet another round of municipal elections in six months.  This 
outcome could be a serious blow to DS's image among frustrated 
voters who have already waited months for local governments to be 
formed.  End Comment. 
 
BRUSH