VZCZCXRO1880
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0446/01 1690659
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 180659Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2553
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000446 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL CN
SUBJECT:  Comoros Plans To Hold Legislative Elections in July 
 
REF:  ANTAN 357 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY:  While still implementing new constitutional 
provisions, President Sambi intends to hold legislative elections 
before Ramadan begins in late August and has asked donors for 
financing and technical assistance.  Hundreds of candidates will 
likely contest the more than 70 positions at the National Assembly 
and three island "parliaments."  Once elected, these legislators are 
expected, pursuant to the new constitution, to decide on the date 
for the next Union Presidential election.   END SUMMARY. 
 
GOC Implements New Constitution 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU)  The GOC has established a committee of jurists and other 
experts to implement the sweeping changes in institutions and 
authorities embodied in the May 17 constitutional referendum 
(REFTEL).  Briefing the diplomatic community, Chief of Cabinet 
Dossar and Minister of Justice Mmadi insisted governance would 
improve and President Sambi would be more able to achieve his 
development objectives. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Comoros Officer again encouraged reconciliation and 
dialogue, commending President Sambi for his ongoing talks with all 
three island executives.  Replying to African Union S/E Madeira's 
talking point about "consensus" (the exact word Tanzanian President 
Kikwete used in speeches while visiting the Comoros), Dossar said 
consensus is neither desirable nor feasible.  "We are in the 
majority, we are elected, the referendum passed, and we have to 
govern," Dossar declared.  He accepted that reconciliation and 
dialogue were valid issues in the Comoros and said the Union 
Government would continue along these lines; but he flatly rejected 
the notion that the Comoros could be ruled by consensus. 
 
Legislative Elections 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Currently, no legislative branch exists in the Comoros; a 
"void" that President Sambi acknowledges as serious.  He told the 
dip corps he intends to hold legislative elections - for the 
National Assembly Deputies and the island parliament "counselors" 
before Ramadan begins (about August 20).  Such a deadline requires 
electoral list revisions, registering candidates, producing ballots, 
and organizing logistics in the next six weeks in order to hold the 
first round end July then the second round three weeks later.  No 
official decree announcing the date for the legislative election has 
been issued.  Our French, UN, EU, and AU colleagues expect to 
respond favorably to the request for financial and technical 
assistance, but must have detailed budgets and timelines, as well as 
adequate notice, to mobilize resources.  AU Ambassador Mourad told 
Comoros Officer that a high-level AU Peace and Security delegation 
would visit the Comoros in June.  South African Ambassador Mabeta 
made clear in a recent meeting that his country had no intention of 
contributing anything near the scale of the major military/logistics 
deployment for the AU-organized presidential election in 2006. 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Already many dozens of political leaders have expressed 
their intention to run for one of the 70 National Assembly or island 
parliament positions.  These elected officials will then meet in 
Congress, as per the recent referendum, to decide on the date for 
the next Union Presidential election.  The new constitution is 
subject to multiple interpretations, but the Congress seems to have 
the authority to select any date as long as the Union President and 
island governors are elected the same day; thereafter all four have 
five year terms.  The political compromise still required is to 
"harmonize" mandates that currently end in 2010 (Sambi), 2012 
(Abdouwahabi and Ali Said) and 2013 (Toybou).  Vice President Idi 
Nadhoim told Comoros Officer he is advocating for early 2012 for the 
next Presidential election; giving Sambi two additional years beyond 
his legal mandate and allowing opposition governors Abdouwahabi and 
Ali Said to complete their terms of office.  For Anjouan's pro-Sambi 
governor Toybou, "we'll give him a big check and if he gets 
reelected, he does not lose anything."  Vice President Idi agreed 
with Comoros Officer's assertion that Sambi has the constitution he 
wants, "now we have to deliver, but we have no money." 
 
Mohelians Say Fomboni Accords "Dead" 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Moheli Governor Ali Said and his colleagues insist the May 
17 referendum was illegitimate but accept they are powerless to do 
anything about it.  He told AU S/E Madeira the 2001 Fomboni Accords 
- which ended a secession crisis and established the rotating 
presidency - were "dead" because Moheli would not get its rightful 
turn in 2010.  Noting both the AU and La Francophonie were 
signatories to Fomboni, Ali Said insisted they should be "guarantors 
of its provisions."  S/E Madeira insisted the rotation would be 
respected and Moheli would get his turn.  However, when voices 
around the room cried "when?" he was silent. 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00000446  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Both Moheli's Ali Said and Grande Comore's Abdouwahabi 
continue to issue joint declarations, most recently following their 
May 22 meeting with President Sambi.  Privately Abdouwahabi has 
split with his Mohelian opposition counterpart, accepting the 
referendum, worried about the authority (and money) he is losing, 
and focusing on gaining an opposition majority at the legislative 
elections.  Ali Said is under intense pressure from political 
leaders in Moheli to defend the tiny island's promised turn in the 
rotating presidency.  However, Ali Said monopolizes most of Moheli's 
economy and is comfortable in his position as governor even with 
diminished authority.  Former Prime Minister Bolero, an opposition 
leader not currently in office, told Comoros Officer that Ali Said 
has neither the leverage nor the courage to risk his current 
position to really challenge President Sambi. 
 
COMMENT: 
- - - - - 
 
¶8. (SBU)  While the GOC and diplomats seem to agree that the 
legislative elections require donor financing, some political and 
business contacts are not so sure.  They note the USD 24 million 
pledged by the Arab League and allege support from Kuwait-based 
"Comoro Gulf Holdings" and even Iran that would allow President 
Sambi to hold the elections in July without the help of traditional 
donors.  The quality and legitimacy of these important legislative 
elections will depend on how much time is available to plan and how 
deeply the AU, EU, French, and UN will be involved in its 
organization.  Questions that depend on them include:  who will hold 
Comoros' future stability in their hands when they meet in 
"Congress" to decide; ultimately, how long Sambi stays in power; and 
how much longer Moheli has to wait?  END COMMENT. 
 
MARQUARDT