VZCZCXRO3155
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #1319/01 1591317
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081317Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5013
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEPADJ/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEWMFD/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 001319 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL ET SO SU ER
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER MELES ON GOVERNANCE AND FOREIGN POLICY 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Prime Minister Meles Zenawi met with the joint Ambassadors 
and Donors group on June 5, the first such meeting with this group 
and the first in several years with any broad group of Ambassadors. 
Organized by the American Embassy chair, Meles explained that 
international observers will be invited to the 2010 elections, but 
cautioned that they must be judges of the electoral process not 
predictors of the results.  Public sector-led growth under 
government oversight and direction in banking, telecom and insurance 
will remain unchanged, though the private sector will be developed 
to attract investment and increase needed foreign exchange. 
Finally, the Prime Minister urged the United Nations and the 
international community to listen to, and support, the 
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and African Union 
call for sanctions against Eritrea for its destabilizing arms and 
financial support of extremists in Somalia and in the region, and 
the need to support the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) 
through a no-fly zone and port embargo to halt arms flows to 
extremists who seek to destroy the TFG. 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Confident and precise in explaining his policy objectives 
and the challenges Ethiopia faces, Meles' key message was to the 
Ambassadors to be neutral in the upcoming national elections, 
encourage the opposition not to boycott the elections, to support 
the electoral process and understand the government will hold fair 
and transparent elections.  There may be problems, but it would be 
the result of the lack of capacity, not the government's lack of 
effort.  Finally, he cautioned that any violence will be from the 
opposition, the government is committed to holding peaceful 
elections.  End Summary. 
 
PART I: GOVERNANCE - THE ELECTORAL PROCESS 
 
¶3. (SBU) Prime Minister Meles Zenawi met with 30 Ambassadors and 
Charges from the joint Ambassadors group (EPG - Ethiopia Partners 
Group) and Donors Assistance Group (DAG) on June 5 for over two and 
a half hours, arranged by the American Embassy, the chair for the 
joint group.  This was the first meeting with a large group of 
diplomats in several years by the Prime Minister and the first time 
the Prime Minister has ever met with the joint EPG/DAG, which 
includes representatives of the United Nations, World Bank as well 
as major donors and key embassies.  Prime Minister Meles focused on 
three areas: governance, sustainable economic development, and 
regional issues.  On governance, the Prime Minister said the 
government learned from its mistakes in the 2005 national elections 
which saw a dramatic increase in opposition representation in the 
Parliament from 12 seats to over 170 seats in the 547 seat 
parliament.  The over 30 percent vote and seats won was the best 
showing ever by Ethiopia's opposition.  But, Meles said the 
post-election violence was the result of opposition arrogance and 
the meddling of international observers.  The International 
Republican Institute's (IRI) election observers said the 2005 
elections would be fair only if the opposition won at least 30 
percent of the seats and vote, which it did.  EU chief observer, Ana 
Gomes, a socialist EU parliamentarian from Portugal, declared the 
opposition the winners of the 2005 elections based on urban polling 
results, when it was clear from the Carter Center that the ruling 
EPRDF had won (Note: Roughly 86 percent of the populace lives in 
rural areas.  End note). 
 
¶4. (SBU) According to Meles, the 2005 violence, which led to the 
deaths of 197 people, demonstrated that international observers must 
focus on judging the electoral process and specifically the openness 
and transparency in pre-election preparation including voter 
registration and candidate registration, and in the conduct of the 
elections.  Meles made it clear that international observers must 
not speculate on outcomes, must not focus on predictions of election 
results, and must not attempt to sway voter opinion.  Observers must 
be neutral, judging only the electoral process, he stressed. 
Whatever the electorate decides, the process must be respected. 
Meles said the government will invite international observers, but 
will be selective.  He said IRI and the National Democratic 
Institute (NDI), for instance, would not be invited, but the Carter 
Center would. 
 
GOVERNANCE - NEUTRALITY 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Meles warned the diplomatic corps not to interfere in 
Ethiopia's internal politics through support for the opposition, as 
he argued it did in 2005.  In 2005, Meles said some Embassies worked 
with the opposition, coordinating meetings and unwittingly 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001319  002 OF 004 
 
 
contributed to the violent aftermath of the elections by giving the 
opposition false hope that these embassies would stand behind them. 
After the elections, Meles said some Embassies demanded a one year 
transition for the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary 
Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition to cede authority to a unified 
opposition group.  Ana Gomes, in particular, advocated for this 
position.  Referring to the Carter Center report that the EPRDF had 
won and noting that the opposition only obtained 30 percent of the 
vote and seats, Meles said the activities of some of the Embassies 
were not democratic.  Elections must be free, fair and peaceful; 
they cannot be a mechanism to replace an elected government. 
 
GOVERNANCE - AMBASSADORS PRESS FOR INTERPARTY TALKS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Meles cautioned the Embassies not to encourage the 
opposition to boycott upcoming elections or to intimidate the ruling 
party through international pressure and support for the opposition. 
 The German Ambassador replied to the Prime Minister that the clear 
message from the international community to the opposition is not to 
boycott and to participate in dialogue with the government.  In this 
context, the questions from the Ambassadors stressed the importance 
of the government and ruling party to engage in interparty talks 
with the opposition, which have yet to begin, and to pursue any 
charges of harassment.  Further, there need to be terms of reference 
which will allow for observers to judge the electoral process.  The 
German Ambassador also raised concerns over the draft anti-terrorism 
law currently before parliament and recently passed laws.  Meles 
replied that the anti-terrorism law draft will be circulated to the 
diplomatic corps and discussions on this law can take place after 
everyone has reviewed the draft law text.  Meles added that 
interparty talks are guaranteed under the electoral process which 
will promote a free, fair and peaceful election.  He referred to the 
recent national electoral law, noting that the opposition had vetted 
the nine candidates who he was authorized to select to form the 
board and that three of the members were opposition people. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The problem is not the recent laws passed, but 
implementation, Meles said.  The electoral code of conduct is based 
on the best international practices, but the Ethiopian electorate 
needs to be educated.  This will take time and education.  There is 
a tendency to "Ethiopianize" ideas borrowed or incorporated in the 
laws.  That only makes the situation confusing, complicates the 
process, and leads to unintended consequences.  It is in this 
context that the electorate must be educated and understand what is 
being adopted from other countries and why it must not be altered in 
the implementation process.  On the terms of reference for 
international observers, Meles said the observers must also abide by 
the TOR because Ana Gomes rejected the agreement and pursued her own 
agenda in 2005. 
 
PART II: Somalia Stalemate 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Meles said in recent days Hizb al Islam and al-Shabaab 
tried to control the central region of Somalia and choke off any 
north-south movement.  The sufi Alhu Sunna Wal Jama'a (ASWJ) stopped 
the effort, giving the TFG breathing room in Mogadishu.  It is 
clear, Meles said, that al-Shabaab cannot, at this time, remove the 
TFG and the TFG cannot defeat al-Shabaab.  Meles said the African 
Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and ASWJ are elements that prevent 
al-Shabaab from taking over Somalia.  The United Nations must 
support AMISOM with payments and support.  The United Nations must 
hear and support the call by IGAD and African Union states for a no 
fly zone and blockade of some ports to prevent arms and financial 
flows from reaching al-Shabaab.  Eritrea must be stopped from 
helping the al-Shabaab gain advantages.  If AMISOM fails and if the 
UN does not help Africa cut off assistance to the extremists then 
al-Shabaab will win.  Meles raised, but did not expand on, the 
importance of the TFG reaching out to anti-al-Shabaab elements, like 
ASWJ, which would help the TFG cause. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Eritrea remains a major obstacle to defeating al-Shabaab, 
Meles argued.  The Prime Minister said it was regrettable that the 
UN only "barked" but did not "bite" Eritrea in not enforcing UN 
Security Council Resolution 1862 to sanction Eritrea for holding 
Djiboutian territory.  The lack of UN action has emboldened 
President Isaias even further to destabilize the region, Meles 
asserted.  He again urged the ambassadors to support IGAD and the AU 
in controlling Eritrea.  Meles added that IGAD and the AU cannot 
understand how the international community overlooks Eritrea's 
jailing of its own ministers and people.  The EU recently granted 
120 million Euros in assistance to Asmara with no criticism of 
Eritrea's abusive human rights record.  Sweden gave assistance 
without criticizing Eritrea for the jailing of a Swedish-Eritrean 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001319  003 OF 004 
 
 
reporter for the past several years. 
 
¶10. (SBU) On Sudan, Meles speculated that in 2011 the Comprehensive 
Peace Agreement (CPA) will not be implemented and that 2011 could 
mark a potentially devastating time of instability in Sudan and the 
region.  He touched on the International Criminal Court (ICC) 
warrant for President Bashir and the need to find some compromise 
without exacerbating an already tense situation. 
 
PART III: SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) The Prime Minister said he saw no reason to change the 
current public sector-led growth strategy in which government 
oversight and direction in the banking, telecommunications, and 
insurance sectors will remain unchanged.  He said the private sector 
will be developed to attract investment and increase needed foreign 
exchange.  He was encouraged by the expanded relations with India 
and Turkey and was hopeful that Ethiopia's economic development will 
benefit.  He also expressed appreciation for the establishment of 
the American Chamber of Commerce as a new paradigm for conducting 
business and praised the Netherlands on export programs. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Meles said the balance of payments problem is being 
addressed.  Inflation will be under control this year to single 
digit levels, and the government will keep the deficit under 1.5 
percent of GDP.  This will entail tighter controls over money and 
deficit spending.  The Ethiopian birr has faced a 17 percent 
devaluation, but more work will be necessary to tackle the 
imbalances in the economy.  The lack of foreign exchange is being 
addressed through talks with the IMF.  One problem to the deficit 
and lack of foreign currency has been poor exports.  But Meles said 
the main problem is not the worldwide economic downturn but 
fundamental problems in Ethiopia's export market.   Changes, better 
regulation, and new approaches are being taken.  He pointed to 
coffee as an example of the changes in this sector that are taking 
place.  The changes will hopefully make coffee exports and other 
exports much better in the coming year.  Support from the African 
Development Bank and World Bank will also be important. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Meles noted that tax collection is terrible.  Better tax 
collection is important.  He did note that the revenue service has 
been overly aggressive creating problems for individuals and 
companies who are being unfairly over-taxed, but noted that the 
legal process can help resolve these types of problems.  To bring in 
more investment, Meles said the government is promoting joint 
ventures.  No foreign investor wants Ethiopia's outdated textile 
factories, but through joint ventures and better deals on sales or 
leases, the government hopes to privatize the textile and other 
sectors. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) A few Ambassadors, including the U.S., were taken aback by 
the firm warning by the Prime Minister on the international 
community's meddling in the last election, responsibility for the 
violence, and restrictions in the 2010 elections that could make 
election observing very restricted.  This may not be a factor since 
the EU does not plan to send observers and there may be not 
observers from the U.S.   The Carter Center may pass on the 2010 
elections because it may be unwilling to jeopardize its health 
sector programs by engaging in elections work in Ethiopia. 
 
¶15. (SBU) The series of laws passed since 2010 while termed as 
supportive of creating an equal playing field in fact has impacted 
most on the opposition parties.  Forbidding outside funding for 
parties and democratic activities is in sharp contrast to the ruling 
party's ability to secure funds from enterprise corporations which 
collect funds from government controlled sectors.  The opposition, 
which got most of its funds from the diaspora in 2005, has minimal 
access to funding in Ethiopia.  The Prime Minister's assertion that 
the laws are sound but implementation difficult and that voter 
education is critical can be met if the government aggressively 
investigates charges of harassment and intimidation.  In the 2009 
local elections the opposition secured less than 1/100 of one 
percent of contestable seats, though most of the opposition parties 
boycotted the elections.  There was almost no investigation of 
charges by opposition parties on registration irregularities, 
intimidation of opposition parties, inability to register opposition 
candidates or charges of unfair arrest of supporters and candidates. 
 To date, we have not seen any reports addressing the charges raised 
by the opposition parties. 
 
¶16. (SBU) Without Europe's active participation, it will fall 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001319  004 OF 004 
 
 
primarily on the U.S. to lead efforts with the government on the 
2010 elections and to help expand political space for the 
opposition.  In this context, we intend to meet with the newly 
formed Forum for Democratic Dialogue, which is a mechanism to unite 
the opposition parties in the 2010 elections when they have selected 
their own leaders and drawn up a plan on how they will deal with the 
2010 elections.  Further, we remain the lead in advocating for 
interparty talks, scheduled for July, and clear commitments by the 
government to investigate immediately any charge of harassment or 
problems raised by any group or individual.  End Comment. 
 
YAMAMOTO