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R 181155Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
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INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0725
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1769
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0780

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000338 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KJUS AM
SUBJECT: YEREVAN'S MAYORAL RACE:  VIOLENCE AND POTENTIAL FRAUD 
 
REF: YEREVAN 322 
YEREVAN 302 
YEREVAN 321 
YEREVAN 334 
 
YEREVAN 00000338  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) Yerevan's milestone municipal election, which will 
determine the city's first-ever elected mayor, is at the midpoint. 
Campaigning began on May 2.  Six parties and one party bloc are 
contesting the proportional representation-based election.  Violence 
has marred the start of the campaign, with confrontations between 
pro-government and opposition forces, as well as armed clashes 
between pro-government parties.  The main contenders appear to be 
waging aggressive grassroots campaigns, taking their message 
directly to the residents of Yerevan's twelve communities.  As has 
been the case in past elections, however, name-calling and 
point-scoring figure prominently in the campaign, with a serious 
discussion of Yerevan's most pressing issues taking a back seat. 
END SUMMARY 
 
-------------------------- 
VIOLENCE MARS THE CAMPAIGN 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Serious violence has accompanied the start of the election 
campaign, with journalists, opposition supporters, and partisans of 
the two ruling parties being targeted for various reasons.  On April 
2, a month before the campaign officially began, a deadly shootout 
took place between two individuals included on the list of 
candidates of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA).  A RPA 
spokesperson denied any political motives behind the shooting.  In 
the early mornings of April 30 and May 6, two Armenian journalists 
were attacked by unidentified assailants while entering their 
apartment buildings.  It has been speculated that at least one of 
the journalists was targeted as a result of his reporting on recent 
political events, including his unflattering interview of the leader 
of Prosperous Armenia (PA) (refs A-B).  The wife of the other 
journalist is a lawyer involved in the defense of prominent 
opposition figures jailed and/or detained by the authorities, and it 
has speculated her husband could have been targeted due to his 
wife's legal work. 
 
¶3. (SBU) On the back-to-back evenings of May 10-11, female 
opposition supporters of Levon Ter-Petrossian's Armenian National 
Congress (ANC) were attacked by unidentified men as they were 
canvassing in the RPA-controlled Avan community of Yerevan.  The 
community is led by its young prefect, Taron Margarian, who also 
happens to be the RPA's number two candidate on its election slate. 
On May 12, in Yerevan's Kanaker-Zeytun and Davitashen communities, 
clashes reportedly occurred between backers of the RPA and their 
ruling coalition partner Prosperous Armenia (PA). 
 
¶4. (SBU) (Comment:  Pre-election violence is not new in Armenia. 
History here has shown that violence is a regular feature during the 
campaigns of pivotal electoral showdowns.  Nonetheless, all 
candidates in the mayoral race, including the incumbent mayor and 
frontrunner Gagik Beglarian of the RPA, have condemned the violence. 
 And even the Central Electoral Commission issued a lukewarm 
statement airing its concerns. 
 
---------------- 
EMBASSY RESPONDS 
---------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) On May 8, the Ambassador met with the Chief of Armenia's 
Police, Major General Alik Sargsian, to ask the Police's support in 
ensuring free and fair elections.  Sargsian committed to the 
Ambassador that the Police would remain impartial.  On May 15, after 
a week of escalating violence,  the Ambassador sent the Chief of 
Police a letter expressing the Embassy's concerns that left 
unresolved, the violence risked discouraging citizens from voting in 
the election; the Ambassador urged the Police to conduct rapid, 
impartial investigations to apprehend and prosecute the individuals 
responsible for the attacks.  Before that, on May 12, the acting 
Pol-Econ chief contacted RPA's campaign manager to urge restraint by 
his supporters in the Avan community.  (Note:  No attacks took place 
that evening, and the head of Avan's police personally accompanied 
the canvassers on their walk through the community.  End Note) 
 
------------------------------ 
GRASSROOTS CAMPAIGNS IN ACTION 
------------------------------ 
 
 
YEREVAN 00000338  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Spurning advertisements on big billboards or campaign 
posters placed in  store windows, the main contestants in this 
election have opted on focused grassroots campaigns.  The RPA and 
the ANC have opened numerous campaign offices throughout the city, 
with the ANC attempting to hold rallies in Yerevan's communities on 
a nightly basis. 
 
¶7. (SBU) A human rights activist from Transparency International who 
is monitoring the campaigns said the RPA has taken a 
neighborhood-by-neighborhood approach, going into the backyards of 
apartment buildings and arranging small-scale events with community 
residents.  During the first week of the election campaign alone, 
the RPA organized 15 meetings with residents of the Nor-Nork and 
Kanaker communities. Its top candidate, newly-appointed mayor Gagik 
Beglarian, is shown nightly on television meeting residents in 
various communities, promising new children's playgrounds, new trees 
for backyards, and timelier garbage removal. 
 
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NAME-CALLING AND ALLEGATIONS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) As is customary in elections in Armenia, there are plenty 
of allegations and name-calling going around.  The opposition, 
including its new member the Armenian Revolutionary Federation - 
Dashnaktsutiun (Dashnaks), have charged that the RPA-controlled 
Yerevan municipality is pressuring public sector employees to pledge 
their votes for their party list. One of the leading Dashnak 
candidates told Emboff that some voters have recounted to him that 
while they would like to give him their vote, they have already had 
to give their passport data to the RPA with an obligation to vote 
for the RPA list.  (Comment:  This is a common vote-tampering 
practice in Armenia, when voters are intimidated into providing 
their private information, told their vote will be monitored, and -- 
gullibly -- believe they will be held accountable if they do not 
vote as told.  End Comment) 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The ANC has also charged that its campaign is not being 
given ample coverage on Armenian's TV stations.  The electoral code 
guarantees equal time on Public TV for all parties contesting the 
election.  For the most part, this is granted.  However, most of 
Armenia's roughly 20 TV stations airing in Yerevan are either owned 
or scrutinized by pro-government supporters.  The ANC charged in a 
May 13 statement that outside the mandated air time, Public TV has 
completely ignored its campaign events, and instead given wide 
coverage to the other parties.  The ANC said this threatens the 
legitimacy of the campaign and restricts the right of the public to 
receive objective information.  (Comment:  To a large extent, the 
ANC is right.  An informal survey of the nightly newscasts of Public 
TV and privately-owned TV stations reveals a distinct imbalance in 
coverage of the ruling coalition parties and the ANC. That said, we 
have confirmed that ANC leader Ter-Petrossian has been invited to 
appear in several live TV interviews and programs, but has refused 
the invitations.  End Comment.) 
 
---------------------------- 
THE BREAD-AND-BUTTER ISSUES? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Besides the mud-slinging and mutual recriminations that 
take place largely between the RPA and the ANC, it is hard to find 
substantive discussion of the issues central to Yerevan's voters 
today -- job security and creation in light of the economic crisis; 
repairing and upgrading the city's dilapidated infrastructure 
(public buildings, roads, water, lighting); the congestion of 
Yerevan's choked roadways; environmental issues (worsening air 
quality, loss of green zones to construction); and improving waste 
management. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Instead, leaders such as Artur Baghdassarian of the ruling 
coalition's junior party Rule of Law harp that "unfortunately we are 
witnessing a consistent process of 'oligarchization' in Yerevan, 
where more and more malls are emerging and strangling small and 
medium stores."  (Comment:  This is like the pot calling the kettle 
black, as Baghdassarian is rumored to have profited handsomely in 
business thanks to his political connections.  End Comment) 
Baghdassarian's lieutenant Heghine Bisharian, the only woman to top 
a party list in the election, also speaks in generalities, saying 
that "kindness" will be the main feature of her campaign speeches. 
She warned, however, that "if there are people who will say wicked 
things, especially about us, we will definitely respond." 
 
¶12.  (SBU) One of the more substantive interventions to date has 
been made by Artsvik Minasian, the top Dashnak candidate, who 
pledged, among other things, to end the restrictions on opposition 
gatherings in Yerevan that were put in place following Armenia's 
 
YEREVAN 00000338  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
2008 presidential election (ref D).  The Dashnaks said they also 
plan to establish a financial oversight commission under the control 
of the opposition, optimize the personnel system in city hall, pay 
proper salaries, focus on human rights, and get youth more civically 
active. 
 
¶13. (SBU) Touting the election as a re-run of the disputed 2008 
presidential election, the LTP-led ANC sees the election as a way to 
"create an Armenia where people will live without fear."  ANC 
Coordinator and campaign manager Levon Zurabian used the ANC's 
opening rally to speak about the urgency of establishing legality in 
the country.  LTP himself weighed in, arguing that the proper 
conduct of the election represents President Sargsian's "last chance 
to gain some authority with Armenian society and the international 
community."  LTP and the ANC have also bitterly criticized the 
President's Turkey policy, trying to score points by drawing 
sensitive foreign policy issues into a local race. 
 
----------------------------- 
NO OBSERVERS, POTENTIAL FRAUD 
----------------------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU)  If recent history is any indicator, the potential for 
fraud in this pivotal election will be equally high.  Both the 2008 
presidential election and September 2008 Kentron prefect election 
won by RPA candidate Beglarian contained wide-spread irregularities 
during the vote and vote count.  The fact that the Dashnaks -- when 
they were still in the ruling coalition -- complained about the RPA 
using administrative resources before the campaign even began, 
suggests how serious an issue this is.  For its part, the 
authorities have also declined inviting OSCE/ODIHR to observe the 
election, in spite of pressure from us and others.  The Central 
Electoral Commission (CEC) has also been stingy with accreditations, 
accrediting only resident ambassadors.  The lack of foreign 
observers will definitely create room for considerable electoral 
hanky-panky.  (Note:  We have requested nine accreditations for 
Embassy staff, but have yet to hear back from the CEC chairperson. 
We learned on Friday that the CEC refused to accredit the Deputy 
Head of Mission of the British Embassy.  End Note.) 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶15. (SBU) The first half of Yerevan's first mayoral election has 
been marred by violence and expectations that the ruling party 
candidate -- "Black Gago" -- will win the seat by hook or crook. 
There is widespread belief that Beglarian cannot be allowed to fail, 
since control of the city which represents one third of the 
country's population must be in Republican hands.  Even opposition 
supporters, however, contend that if elections were fair, Beglarian 
could win on his merits, because he is far and away the best 
administrator among the candidates.  Unfortunately, there are few 
who believe that the election will be free and fair -- including the 
opposition ANC, which has already announced that the count will have 
been falsified if it does not receive 75 percent of the vote.  It is 
unlikely that the ANC would receive 75 percent of the vote in the 
freest vote, but they are setting up expectations that could lead to 
public anger after the election.  At this point, we do not see 
Yerevan headed for a replay of the tumultuous events of 
February-March 2008, but are watching the election closely -- as are 
the ruling authorities. 
 
YOVANOVITCH