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RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #0321/01 1341002
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R 141002Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
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INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1745
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0759
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0710

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000321 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AM
SUBJECT: LINE-UP OF PARTIES CONTESTING YEREVAN MUNICIPAL ELECTION 
 
REF: YEREVAN 278 
 
YEREVAN 00000321  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) In view of the upcoming May 31 Yerevan City Council 
election that will determine the capital's next mayor, post has 
prepared a profile of the seven political parties contesting the 
election.  This is the first time since 1995 that the mayor of 
Yerevan, who governs approximately one third of Armenia's entire 
population, will not be appointed by the president of the republic. 
The mayor will instead come from the top of the list of the 
political party that wins the election.  Highlights of the 
pre-election campaign season have been the decision by the parties 
of the ruling coalition to mount separate campaigns; the decision by 
the lone opposition party in parliament not to run at all; the 
decision by Armenia's ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian to run as 
the top candidate of the extra-parliamentary opposition Armenian 
National Congress (ANC); and the April 27 decision by the Armenian 
Revolutionary Federation - Dashnaktsutiun (Dashnaks) to bolt the 
coalition and run as an "opposition" party in the election (septel). 
 END SUMMARY 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
COALITION (REPBULICANS) DECIDES ON SEPARATE RUNS 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In late February, after extensive internal deliberations, 
the four parties making up the ruling coalition at the time 
unexpectedly announced that they would contest the election 
separately.  Pundits interpreted the decision as a shrewd power play 
made by President Sargsian's dominant, senior partner of the 
coalition, the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), as a way to ensure 
the RPA ends up with lion's share of the votes, a majority of the 65 
council member seats, and the coveted mayoral position. 
Commentators also speculated that with the final vote tally, the RPA 
wanted to show their coalition partners just how much stronger they 
were than all the rest of them, and to ensure they split the votes 
among the four parties to avoid the appearance of a vote result that 
read "opposition versus the authorities."  During the 2007 
parliamentary election, the RPA netted 27 percent of the votes cast 
in Yerevan, although these came amid widespread reports of vote 
fraud by it and other pro-government parties. 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to the December 2008 "Law on Local 
Self-Governance in Yerevan" that established the parameters of the 
municipal election, the next mayor will now appoint the powerful 
prefects of Yerevan's 12 communities, whom voters used to elect 
directly.  By running alone, the RPA will not have to share those 
appointments with its coalition partners if it wins a majority of 
votes.  This way the RPA will also ensure that the current prefects, 
who are largely RPA or RPA-allies and who occupy the top positions 
of the RPA party list, will go all out in the election campaign to 
ensure they do not lose their current privileged posts. 
 
------------------------------------ 
"CHORNIY GAGO" TOPS RPA'S PARTY LIST 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In late February the RPA made it known that Gagik 
Beglarian, the controversial prefect of the affluent "Kentron" 
(Center) prefecture, would top their party list for the May 31 
municipal election.  Just days later, on March 4, President Sargsian 
exercised his constitutional right under existing law and appointed 
Beglarian the mayor of Yerevan.  Beglarian, whose nickname "Chorniy 
Gago" (Black Gago) refers to his reputed illicit business dealings 
as Kentron's prefect, is rumored not to have been the president's 
first choice, until Hovik Abrahamian, the Speaker of the National 
Assembly, is said to have persuaded him otherwise. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The number two on the RPA party list, who has been declared 
their pick for deputy mayor, is Taron Margarian, the young prefect 
of Avan community and the son of the late Prime Minister Andranik 
Margarian who died of a heart attack while in office in 2007.  The 
young Margarian possesses a positive reputation as a proactive 
manager who takes good care of his community.  Pundits have 
speculated that if Margarian had led the RPA's list, he would likely 
have attracted enough votes to win without the RPA having to resort 
to vote fraud.   It is said, however, that Margarian's independent 
streak concerns the RPA leadership, who feared he might be hard to 
control after the election. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
PROSPEROUS ARMENIA -- "DODI GAGO'S" PARTY 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
YEREVAN 00000321  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The party list of Prosperous Armenia, the junior partner of 
the coalition second to the the RPA, is led by Harutyun Kushkian, 
the Minister of Health who has allegedly used his government 
position and ownership of major hospitals in Yerevan for substantial 
personal gain.  When announcing Kushkian's candidacy for the 
election, PA's spokesperson said "Yerevan is the heart of Armenia, 
and any healthy heart requires caring hands and competent persons. 
So Mr. Kushkian's medical profession can be useful also for 
correctly diagnosing our city's problems and determining ways of 
resolving them."  (Note:  Kushkian is a cardiologist by training. 
End Note.)  PA's number two is Mkhitar Mnatsakanian, who is head of 
the parliament's committee on human rights.  (Comment:  Mnatsakanian 
has proven totally ineffectual -- and almost invisible -- in this 
role.  End Comment) PA netted 14 percent of the votes cast in 
Yerevan during the 2007 parliamentary election amid widespread 
reports that it bribed voters through monetary or in-kind 
donations. 
 
¶7. (SBU) PA is led by one of Armenia's most notorious and wealthy 
oligarchs, Gagik Tsarukian, who is commonly referred to by his 
nickname, "Dodi Gago."  Tsarukian established PA in 2004, supposedly 
at the behest of his patron, then-president Robert Kocharian, and 
supposedly as a way of weakening the dominant RPA.  It is widely 
believed that Tsarukian and current President Serzh Sargsian do not 
see eye-to-eye, something which was on display when Tsarukian openly 
criticized the economic measures taken by Prime Minister Sargsian 
(no relation to the president) to blunt the impact of the economic 
crisis.  Some pundits interpreted this as a direct challenge to the 
president, who appointed PM Sargsian.  The critiques were also 
accompanied by rumors that the president would replace his prime 
minister and replace him with Tsarukian himself.  (Note:  These 
rumors never materialized.  End Note) 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
"OPPOSITION" DASHNAKS GO WITH YOUNG REFORMER 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Prior to its bolting the four-party ruling coalition on 
April 27 (ref A) over a foreign policy dispute, the 
newly-oppositional Dashnaks (septel) announced that the young MP 
Artsvik Minasian would top their list.  Minasian has made a name for 
himself as a reformer since December 2008 when he personally 
attended the "Trial of the Seven" court hearings involving seven 
prominent oppositionists who were jailed for their political 
activities disputing the result of the 2008 presidential election. 
Minasian is also a member of the ten-person Ad Hoc Parliamentary 
Commission investigating the violent post-election events of March 1 
that claimed ten lives. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Minasian enjoys a positive reputation within opposition and 
government circles.  Pundits view his nomination as a shrewd Dashnak 
move to attract undecided and opposition-leaning voters.  The 
Dashnaks reportedly had long internal debates on whom to nominate, 
with their senior leaders Vahan Hovhannisian and Armen Rustamian 
reportedly outright refusing to run in the election out of a fear 
that they would once again come up short, as they did in the 
presidential election, when Hovhannisian netted only six percent of 
the vote.  In previous elections, the Dashnaks have consistently 
netted approximately seven-eight percent of votes cast in Yerevan, 
but by nominating Minasian they aspire for a much better result this 
time around. 
 
------------------------------- 
WOMAN MP TOPS RULE OF LAW SLATE 
------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The top of the list of the Orinats Yerkir (Rule of Law) 
party is led by the charismatic Heghine Bisharian, the head of their 
faction in parliament.  Several low-profile university professors 
and businessmen follow Bisharian in the list.  Although an effective 
grassroots campaigner, Bisharian's chances have been weakened by the 
decision taken right after the contested 2008 presidential election 
by Rule of Law's mercurial leader Artur Baghdassarian to join the 
ruling coalition.  Baghdassarian and his third-in-command Bisharian 
ran a strident opposition campaign in the presidential election, 
which got them 16 percent of the vote and a third-place finish.  But 
the stunning flip-flop, in a matter of days, from pro-opposition to 
pro-government has proven a bitter disappointment to its electorate, 
many of whom are rumored to have given up on the party.  In the 2008 
presidential election, Baghdassarian received roughly 13 percent of 
the votes cast in Yerevan. 
 
------------------------------------ 
ANC CHOOSES LTP IN "RE-RUN" ELECTION 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) After drawn-out negotiations and mutual recriminations, 
 
YEREVAN 00000321  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
the two main oppositional forces -- the 18-party Armenian National 
Congress (ANC) and Heritage, the sole opposition party in 
parliament, failed to agree on a joint list.  ANC insisted on, and 
on March 15 unilaterally nominated ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian 
(LTP) to top its list.   Following LTP on the ANC list is  People's 
Party of Armenia leader Stepan Demirchian, and ANC coordinator Levon 
Zurabian, Neither Demirchian nor Zurabian enjoys the same kind of 
name recognition or support as LTP. 
 
¶12. (SBU) LTP netted 28 percent of the votes cast in Yerevan during 
the 2008 presidential election, in which he finished second overall 
with almost 22 percent of the vote.  Although LTP has traditionally 
fared well with Yerevan voters in previous elections, his strong 
showing in Yerevan in 2008 also benefited from endorsements by 
Heritage leader Raffi Hovhannisian and the leader of the opposition 
New Times party. 
 
¶13. (SBU) ANC leaders, and LTP himself, have cast this election as 
"a second round" of the 2008 presidential elections.  ANC 
coordinator Levon Zurabian, in announcing LTP's candidacy, said that 
"with this move, we are sending a very clear political message to 
the entire society:  we regard the elections of Yerevan mayor as a 
very serious opportunity to change the existing dictatorial system." 
 RPA leaders were quick to jump on LTP's nomination, saying "it 
heralds an attempt to politicize the elections, which will 
presumably mean political debates and dialogues (sic)." 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
HERITAGE STEPS ASIDE AFTER SQUABBLE WITH ANC 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) After its long deliberations with ANC's leaders, Heritage 
decided not to contest the election. Heritage leaders told Emboffs 
that they had had a preliminary agreement with ANC to start 
negotiations on a joint list, but the party was taken aback by ANC's 
March 15 announcement to nominate its own leaders to top the list. 
Heritage said it had rejected ANC's offer of the third slot on the 
list, the position of deputy mayor and three prefects if their 
combined campaign were to win on May 31. 
 
¶15. (SBU) Heritage floated a number of counter-offers, including 
making their young and popular MP Armen Martirosian the top 
candidate, followed by LTP and Heritage leader Raffi Hovhannisian. 
ANC refused this.  Heritage then proposed that Hovhannisian top the 
combined list, followed by LTP, then Heritage MP Zaruhi Postanjian 
and People's Party of Armenia leader Stepan Demirchian, with the 
understanding that the first three candidates would step aside in 
case of a victory and cede the mayor's position to Demirchian.  ANC 
rejected this offer as well. 
 
¶16. (SBU) The impasse led Heritage to step aside, and ANC to make 
its sudden announcement that LTP would top the party list.  The ANC 
also went on the attack, criticizing Heritage in opposition print 
media for refusing to join them in a combined campaign.  ANC and 
Heritage nevertheless remain in negotiations on possible cooperation 
during the campaign and on election day, with Heritage yet to decide 
whether to yield some of its election commission seats to the 
extra-parliamentary ANC. 
 
----------------------------- 
"THE PUPPETS" OF THE ELECTION 
----------------------------- 
 
¶17. (SBU) Two minor fringe parties are also contesting the election, 
the first of these being the "People's Party" led by Tigran 
Karapetian, the rather eccentric owner of ALM Media Holding.  The 
elderly Karapetian, who appears around the clock on his own TV show 
droning on esoteric subjects to the same commentator, is followed on 
the list by employees from his own firm as well as pensioners.  The 
other party is the Socialistic Labor Party, led by Movses 
Shakhverdian, with an accompanying cast of low-profile government 
employees and businessmen. 
 
¶18.  (SBU) While insignificant politically in society, these fringe 
parties can and often do play a powerful spoiler role in Armenia's 
elections, particularly those held under the proportional 
representation system.  Perceived to be puppets for the ruling 
regime, their first job is to poach as many votes as possible from 
the real opposition.  Their second function, which "People's Party" 
successfully fulfilled during the presidential election, is to file 
misleading election violation complaints to the Central Electoral 
Commission right after the polls close.  By doing this, they bog 
down the review process, which is limited to a total of five days 
after the day of the vote by Armenia's Election Code, and which 
operates on a first-come, first-serve basis.  By flooding the system 
with complaints before the opposition does, these parties ensure 
that the recount process focuses on non-serious complaints, thereby 
 
YEREVAN 00000321  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
guaranteeing that the recount differs little from the initial vote 
tally. 
 
YOVANOVITCH