VZCZCXRO0903
RR RUEHDBU RUEHLN RUEHSK RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHYE #0306/01 1310943
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 110943Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9015
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0704

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000306 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TU AJ AM
SUBJECT: LTP CALLS SARGSIAN TRAITOR ON "GENOCIDE" RECOGNITION 
 
YEREVAN 00000306  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Under the shadow of a heavy police presence, the 
opposition led by ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian (LTP) held its 
second rally of the year on May 1.  LTP accused President Sargsian 
of being willing to pay any price -- even denial of the "genocide" 
-- to remain in power, as evidenced by his support for the April 22 
joint statement with Turkey regarding normalization of relations. 
The rally came on the eve of the May 2 kick-off of the campaign for 
Yerevan's first-ever municipal election on May 31.  Despite 
opposition claims that tens of thousands attended the event, Emboffs 
assessed the crowd size at six-to-eight thousand.  END SUMMARY 
 
------------------------------------------- 
NORMALIZED TIES OK, BUT NOT GENOCIDE DENIAL 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Raising the April 22 joint Turkish-Armenian announcement of 
a road map to normalize ties, LTP announced that the ANC "is in 
favor of a speedy normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, and 
is ready to support all the positive steps of the Armenian 
authorities with regard to this issue."  But LTP stressed that his 
opposition Armenian National Congress objects to the creation of a 
special commission of Armenian and Turkish historians, "which we 
think can only mean denial of the Armenian Genocide." 
 
¶3. (SBU) LTP charged that President Sargsian's support of 
rapprochement "at any cost, including renunciation of the Genocide," 
was given in order "to solve the problem of his legitimacy" and 
"keep his hold on power."  According to LTP, Sargsian's next step 
will be to "sell out Nagorno-Karabakh." 
 
¶4. (SBU) LTP asserted that the Armenia-Turkey agreement confirmed 
the success of Turkish diplomacy, aimed at preventing President 
Obama from describing the 1915 massacres as "genocide" in his April 
24 statement.  LTP said that Sargsian's renunciation of genocide 
recognition was sure to "attract much more ruthless assessments from 
radical circles in Armenia, and especially in the Diaspora."  LTP 
then also blamed the Diaspora and former President Kocharian for 
setting up Sargsian to fail on the issue, arguing that they together 
had made "genocide" recognition a centerpiece of Armenian foreign 
policy issue over the past decade -- a trap that LTP himself had 
carefully avoided during his Administration.  This had made it more 
difficult for Armenia to separate its pragmatic national interests 
from the moral issue of the "genocide." 
 
--------------------------- 
TURKEY WILL FOLD IN THE END 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) LTP then cast doubt on Turkey's commitment to normalized 
ties, asserting that Turkey would eventually yield to the opposition 
of its own public and that of Azerbaijan, and "have to return to its 
prior position" of resisting normalized ties.  As a result, LTP 
argued, relations between Armenia and Turkey will not be normalized 
and the Armenian-Turkish border will not be opened -- unless there 
is tangible progress in resolving the NK conflict. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
POSSIBILITY, THOUGH, FOR PROGRESS ON NK 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) On resolution of the NK conflict, LTP posited that the 
linkage of normalized ties to expected shifts in 
Armenian-Azerbaijani relations could actually create an impetus for 
advancing the settlement process.  LTP said he was encouraged by the 
fact that President Obama -- whom he described as "an idealist in 
the best sense of the word" -- has now assumed moral responsibility 
for the U.S. government to be "more actively and impartially 
involved" in the dual processes of normalizing ties and settlement 
of the NK conflict. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
AUTHORITIES MISHANDLING ECONOMIC CRISIS 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) LTP also took the authorities to task for their mishandling 
of the economic crisis and their "inglorious" dissolution of the 
"Trial of Seven" against LTP's fellow oppositionists who have been 
detained in jail for over a year. In addition, he challenged the 
authorities to hold a clean municipal election on May 31, and mocked 
the authorities' claims that LTP is trying to "politicize the 
elections."  (NOTE:  Indeed, this comment -- absurd on its face from 
an American perspective -- has become a regular talking point of 
government and ruling party officials.  We understand from the 
French Ambassador that the Europeans had recommended indirect 
elections (i.e., party list elections to a Council which would then 
elect the Mayor) as a way to depoliticize the elections during 
difficult times.  END NOTE.) 
 
------------------------------- 
 
YEREVAN 00000306  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
RALLY DYNAMICS, OR LACK THEREOF 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) The rally lasted approximately two hours, the first 40 
minutes of which the organizers played remixed campaign music from 
LTP's 2008 election rallies, presumably waiting for the crowd to 
swell, which by Emboffs' estimates never topped 8,000.  The crowd 
demographic was largely reserved middle-aged to older (i.e., 
retired) men. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The opposition complained that their numbers were reduced 
by roadblocks that the police erected in Armenia's regions to stop 
people traveling to Yerevan for the rally.  Numerous media outlets 
reported on May 2 that most roads leading into Yerevan had been 
blocked and public transportation halted only to resume at 5 pm, 
after the rally had finished.  However, the Chief of Police denied 
this to Ambassador.  Some reporters claimed that unidentified groups 
of men in civilian clothing hindered their attempts to photograph 
and interview  drivers and passengers who had been forced to turn 
around.  Police denied the reports, claiming that they were merely 
conducting routine searches for illegal weapons. 
 
¶10. (SBU) NOTE:  The national police recently announced a month-long 
special campaign against illegal weapons, which correlates almost 
exactly with the election campaign period.  The timing suggests a 
pretext for widespread searches and vehicle stops aimed at 
suppressing the opposition.  END NOTE. 
 
---------------------------------- 
POST-RALLY MARCH ALLOWED AFTER ALL 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) The opposition followed the rally with a march through 
downtown Yerevan, in spite of the municipality's decision not to 
sanction it.  Police on the spot allowed the march to proceed, 
telling organizers they could do so in honor of Armenia's May 1 
Labor Day holiday.  The opposition's next large rally is scheduled 
for May 15. Smaller public meetings with voters are planned 
throughout May in Yerevan's 12 districts.  Several of these meetings 
have already taken place, largely without incident. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶12.  (SBU) LTP's tone while criticizing President Sargsian on Turkey 
and Nagorno-Karabakh was less vitriolic than it could have been. 
LTP further diffused the effect by also lambasting former President 
Kocharian and the Armenian Diaspora on the issue.  Nevertheless, the 
remarks were not helpful.  They do, however, reflect the widely held 
view in Armenia that President Sargsian was outwitted by Turkish 
diplomats who avoided "genocide" recognition by the USG, but gave 
nothing in return. 
 
¶13. (SBU) In contrast with the large turnouts at LTP's campaign and 
protest rallies in 2008, the May 1 event paled in comparison. 
Although the road blocks likely prevented regional supporters from 
attending the rally, LTP's traditional base of support has always 
been in Yerevan -- where people were free to come and go on May 1, 
and where warm weather and a holiday made conditions ideal for a 
large turnout.  Although one can never rule out the wily 
ex-president, slackening attendance at his rallies suggests that his 
supporters might be losing faith in his chances to win an election 
in the current political climate. 
 
YOVANOVITCH