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OO RUEHAST RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKO #1218/01 1490836
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 290836Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3334
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEAEPA/HQ EPA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMCSUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001218 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR D, S/SECC, G, OES/EGC AND EAP/J 
DEPT PASS CEQ 
NSC FOR CCONNORS, JLOI 
USDOC FOR NOAA CLIMATE CHANGE OFFICE - STHURSTON 
EPA FOR SFULTON 
USDOE FOR S-3, RMARLAY, SRUEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ENRG PREL KGHG JA
SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE: STAKEHOLDERS DIFFER ON JAPAN'S 
MIDTERM TARGET 
 
REF: TOKYO 604 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Prime Minister Aso intends to announce 
Japan's midterm greenhouse gas reduction target by mid-June 
in order to use it at the G8 Summit/MEF and in the UNFCCC 
negotiations.  There remain wide differences over the size of 
an appropriate target, however, among the various 
climate/energy stakeholders within Japan.  Both the 
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and ruling 
coalition's junior partner New Komeito have called for a 25 
percent reduction in emissions by 2020.  Nevertheless, in 
what could be a nod to domestic industry concerns, 
Environment Minister Saito of New Komeito has backed off his 
call for a 25 percent cut in emissions by 2020.  Japanese 
industry remains divided, with the most influential business 
association and some labor unions calling for an increase in 
Japan's emissions, while other business groups advocate 
modest reductions.  An academic expert, and many climate 
watchers in the media, believe a seven percent reduction 
target would have support domestically and give Japan a good 
negotiating position once additional reductions from the 
purchase of international carbon credits and other factors 
are included.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Prime Minister Aso told a meeting of a GOJ global 
warming advisory panel May 24 that he will announce Japan's 
midterm (2020) greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target by 
mid-June and intends to use the target as part of Japan's 
efforts in the G8 and MEF meetings and in the UNFCCC talks in 
Copenhagen.  Aso will choose from six different targets  the 
expert panel proposed in April: a) plus 4 percent, b) from 
plus 1 to minus 5 percent, c) minus 7 percent, d) from minus 
8 to minus 17 percent, e) minus 15 percent, and f) minus 25 
percent.  All targets use 1990 as the base year.  According 
to the expert panel report, each target was calculated based 
on different assumptions.  For example, the plus four percent 
target assumes only the extension of current energy 
conservation efforts through 2020, while the minus 25 percent 
target assumes upgrading of almost all capital equipment, 
including existing stock, with the most advanced energy 
saving technology.  According to an opinion poll on mid-term 
targets conducted for the Cabinet Secretariat, 45.4 percent 
of respondents favored the seven percent target, with the 
other targets getting no more than 16 percent support.  Both 
the opposition DPJ and ruling coalition junior partner New 
Komeito include a 25 percent reduction target in their 
respective party platforms. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
Industry Divided; Keidanren Maintains Conservative Stance 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Keidanren, Japan's most influential business 
association, supports the plus four percent target and, along 
with over 50 other industry groups and labor unions 
representing various industries, took out full page ads in 
major newspapers May 21 claiming that the plus four percent 
target is the only feasible target that will guarantee 
international fairness.  A Keidanren official reports that 
because Japan already had a very energy efficient economy in 
1990, Japan would pay the same marginal abatement costs to 
attain a plus four percent target as the EU would pay to 
attain a 20 percent cut in emissions or for the U.S. to 
return to 1990 levels.  (Note: Keidanren's Board works on a 
consensus basis.  Embassy understands steel interests were 
able to play a major role in determining Keidanren's position 
as a result.  End Note.) 
 
¶4.  (SBU) There are significant differences of opinion among 
industry groups.  The Japan Association of Corporate 
Executives (Keizai Doyukai) supports a minus seven percent 
target.  The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association 
supports a target in the range of plus one percent to minus 
five percent. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Environment Minister Backs off Most Aggressive Target 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
TOKYO 00001218  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Within Japan's government, Environment Minister 
Tetsuo Saito (New Komeito Party) has been the most outspoken 
in advocating an aggressive mid-term target.  While in the 
past he has called for a 25 percent cut by 2020, in a May 26 
interview he favored the minus 15 percent target.  A Ministry 
of Environment (MOE) official told ESToff the 25 percent 
figure is problematic since it would require a decrease in 
domestic steel production.  While a Ministry of Economy, 
Trade, and Industry (METI) official would not comment on 
which target will be chosen, he reported the MOFA, MOE, and 
METI ministers could meet with the Chief Cabinet Secretary 
before any decision is made (see ref for Japan's climate 
policymaking process). 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
Climate Policy Expert: Odds Favor Seven Percent Target 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Climate policy expert Professor Shouchan 
Asuka-Zhang told ESToff PM Aso will likely choose the minus 
seven percent target, an opinion echoed in several recent 
news articles.  (Note: According to the expert panel report, 
the scenario for this target assumes the introduction of the 
most advanced energy saving technology, but only for new 
equipment, or in the normal replacement of old stock.  End 
note)  However, Asuka said the targets the PM's expert panel 
presented did not take into account factors such as forest 
absorption or credits purchased through UNFCCC-approved 
programs such as the Clean Development Mechanism.  With 
additional reductions from those factors, Asuka thinks a 
minus seven percent target for domestic emissions could mean 
at least a ten percent drop under UNFCCC calculations, which 
could be a reasonable position for Japan to hold in 
international negotiations. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Regarding Keidanren's claims about the "fairness" 
of the plus four percent target, Asuka said he doubts the 
legitimacy of the marginal abatement costs cited by 
Keidanren, saying the figures come from a METI think tank and 
that no other organization uses the figures. 
ZUMWALT